The best two even-strength forward lines for the Ducks

by Earl Sleek on Nov 8, 2006 11:26 AM PST Comment 0 comments

One of the statistical inroads into hockey analysis, I think, has been segmentation of situational play. Here’s two lines that are killing at even-strength for the Ducks, which is a huge factor in their top-of-the-league record.

First off, there’s God himself, and his two buddies Rob and Travis. What is amazing about these ES outscoring rates is that this is the line that matches up against the opposition’s best. Basically, in a situation where they should find themselves outscored, they are dominating play.

Secondly, there’s the kid line, who play in a much different setting than the Pahlsson line. These guys get the easiest minutes, but still, they are cashing in at a bloody rate. This line at ES pretty much scores 2 goals for every 1 it allows. Ironically, before Fedoruk got Boogarded out of the lineup, he led the team in both ES points-per-hour and ES pluses-per-hour. A shame we had to lose our best offensive star.

Player	ES minutes	ES +/hr	ES -/hr	ES dif/hr	ES G-A-Pts	ES Pts/hr
Samuel Pahlsson	190	2.85	-0.95	1.90	2-5-7	2.22
Rob Niedermayer	193	2.80	-0.93	1.87	1-5-6	1.87
Travis Moen	175	2.74	-1.03	1.71	3-1-4	1.37

The other two lines (centered by McDonald and Marchant) have been adequate at ES, pretty much scoring as much as they are being scored on. They are valuable lines still, as McDonald’s line is contributing well on a potent power play and Marchant is statistically one of our best penalty-killers. Also, I’m not sure how much credit to give to these specific players, as goaltending has been outstanding for the Ducks (which should help everyone), and Chris Pronger in particular looks to be an ES monster (1.62 ES dif/hr).

So be warned, future foes. You wanna beat the Ducks, you better start thinking about these two lines—specifically, how can we prevent getting killed by these two lines at even-strength?

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Pacific Standings

Player	ES minutes	ES +/hr	ES -/hr	ES dif/hr	ES G-A-Pts	ES Pts/hr
Corey Perry	121	3.97	-1.98	1.98	2-2-4	1.98
Ryan Getzlaf	125	3.86	-1.93	1.93	4-1-5	2.41
Todd Fedoruk	75	4.04	-2.43	1.62	0-3-3	2.43

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
San Jose Fear The Fin	82	51	20	11	113
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