Tampa Bay Lightning: 25%
Los Angeles Kings: 18.8%
Atlanta Thrashers: 14.2%
St. Louis Blues: 10.7%
New York Islanders: 8.1%
Other teams have a shot at moving up 4 spots but they can't win 1st overall, so who cares about them. Their odds, all added up, equals 19.6%.
Basically, I only really care that the Kings pick in the top 2. If we win the whole thing, awesome. If Tampa Bay wins it that's okay too, because the Kings would still get their pick of a number of top defensive prospects. If one of the other 3 teams in the top 5 (or the Columbus Blue Jackets, who sit at 6th right now) win, however, I'll be pissed. That would drop us down to 3rd. According to my calculations, the Kings have a 57.2% chance of staying in the top 2.* Hopefully everything works out for us, but I'm not holding out too much hope. That's one of the benefits of being a Kings fan; you'll always be ready for the worst thing possible to happen.
*That's probably wrong, just so you know.