The good, bad and ugly contracts in the Pacific
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 9:19 AM PST
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PrintOne of the most talked-about columns this week involved the "scariest" contracts in the NHL. (Pour out a 40 for my homie Alexei Yashin)
Even before that, when I was taking a look at the could-be-improving future of the New York Islanders, crunching numbers at NHLSCAP.com became a mild obsession. Why not take a look at each team in the division, then?
It could be time to brace for a whirlwind of change in Duckville next year. With only Chris Pronger under contract D-wise (not counting minor leaguers), the personality of their blue line could change drastically. It's hard to imagine Scott Niedermayer coming back again, so could the Ducks be an unexpected spot for a guy like Jay Bouwmeester?
Even though the post-Burke Ducks have plenty of questions to answer, their cap situation is pretty damn impressive. Ryan Getzlaf kind of looks like a douche bag, but he's also one of the best centers in the NHL. Where he ranks on that totem pole is hard to say, but at $5.325 million per year through 2012-13, he might just be the best bargain in the league.
Corey Perry comes at the same price too, which is a brilliant brushstroke by Burke. The Ducks' two cornerstone forwards can rest assured that their feewings won't be hurt.
Teemu Selanne doesn't get enough credit for his putting-the-team-first contract decisions. He's been very cheap considering his second tier production, at a ridiculously low $2.6 million next season.
The Ducks are in a nice spot at $34 million. As Sleek mentioned, J.S. Giguere and Jonas Hiller combine for $7.3 million next season, which might be the worst value on a squad that ranks high in "bang for the buck." Then again, with a weak goaltending market, the Ducks boast one of the best big game goalies in Giguere and a very solid backup in Hiller. Cannot complain too much there.
Once the Ducks sign Sammy Pahlsson, they can focus on improving the team's offensive depth or adding another stud D. What direction should the Duckies go in next year?
(And should they trade Pronger? I'd say "no" but it's certainly an interesting topic ...)
Dallas
Let's start with the ones that are promising. The closest answer the Stars have to Perry-Getzlaf is Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow, in both productivity and value. Morrow's contract is the best: he'll be only a $4.1 million cap hit until 2012-2013. Ribeiro's not too bad himself, providing a point per game type output for $5 million per year (also ending in 2012-13). Those years should cover the last prime years for both players with Ribeiro being 28 and Morrow 30.
The other solid deals run out soon but provide crucial value. Not sure if Stephane Robidas is a full-on All-Star, but for $1.5 million next year he's a steal. Trevor Daley also has a decent contract, making $2.3 million next year.
Matt "Richard" Niskanen and Nicklas Grossman will finish their rookie contracts next year, so that gives the Stars four decent starting defensemen. With a tight cap coming up (about $40.5 million devoted to 15 players), it might not be reasonable to target a Bouwmeester type blue chip.
Depending on price, the Stars might be wise to shoot for a good veteran like Mattias Ohlund.
Offensively, the Stars are stunted by some dead weight and some rough deals. Sean Avery's $3.87 million cap hit was listed as the Stars scary contract and with good reason. It is a waste of money in every sense of the word.
But Brad Richards still has one of the worst contracts in the NHL, despite decent production. If getting a superior talent in Vincent Lecavalier at nearly $1 million less per year (Vinny L's hit is $6.9) counts as frightening, then how scary is Richards' $7.8 million cap hit?
Between Richards, Avery, Morrow and Ribeiro the Stars have just a hair under $21 million committed to three solid forwards. What happens if the salary cap falls?
Considering the state of the Pacific division, it would be hard for the Stars to justify being within a stone's throw of the cap ceiling if they don't make the playoffs this year.
The Kings absolutely have a bright future to look to. There's no doubt about it. The team is just chock full of budding D and bargains (with a few bumps and bruises).
My favorite contract has to be Dustin Brown's. His cap hit is only $3.175 million per year through 2013-14. Considering Brown's penchant for head bussin' and his improving scoring ability (not to mention his recent All-Star appearance), it might be the best deal in the division. If not the league.
The one good thing about Jack Johnson missing most of the season is that it might make the perennial prospect more affordable. It will be interesting to see what kind of deal the Kings sign him to. (Dare I ask if Johnson is tradeable with all the other great blue chip D in their system?)
Anze Kopitar is not worth $6.8 million just yet, but that could still be a reasonable contract as the Kings improve. Ultimately his deal is market value (in other words, not great but not awful).
The only deals that are "meh" worthy are probably for Michal Handzus ($4 million) and Jarret Stoll ($3.6 million). Still, most NHL teams would be able to live with those contracts.
The Kings look like they'll be going into the season with about $40 million in cap space plus whatever Johnson gets. They'll have to decide what direction they want to go in goaltending-wise (it might be prudent to bring in a decent veteran on a short-term deal).
What's truly interesting is that the Kings could add a legit free agent forward. It sucks for them that Zetterberg won't hit the open market, but maybe Johan Franzen could be had. (I was told that Marian Hossa is out of the question ... why?)
Either way, the Kings look great. As long as they aren't dumb enough to waste their money on Broken Marian Gaborik.
In a world where every team could spend to the cap, the Coyotes would be an absolute force to reckon with. Gotta love the contracts for their top forwards: Olli Jokinen's just right at $5.25 million and Shane Doan is a steal at $4.55 million for three more seasons.
It never hurts to have young, cheap stars-in-the-making either. It will be one year before the Coyotes have to re-upp Peter Mueller ($1.7 mill) and two more for Kyle Turris ($2.7 mill).
He's had some ups and downs in his first full season as a starter, but Ilya Bryzgalov's $4.25 million cap hit is about right for a young no. 1 goalie.
With Derek Morris and his humorous $3.9 million per year hit coming off the books, the only questionable deal is Jovocop's $6.5 million salary. Jovanovski is a nice combination of physicality and offensive talent, but he's just too injury prone for a team that needs to make every dollar count.
The Coyotes might usurp the Kings as the team of the future if it weren't for their oft-referenced financial "troubles." Since my knowledge of their problems is limited and I don't want to piss off the guy from Five for Howling, I'll just stay away from that sticky situation.
For a team that was compared to the pre-lockout Colorado Avalanche, the Sharks are still in pretty decent shape going forward.
Much of their cap space will be accounted for next year: they'll be starting at $46.75 million. Really, though, the Sharks have most of their core intact next season. It's the 2010-11 season that will be tough: that's the year both Devin Setoguchi and Joe Pavelski could attract some Kevin Lowe-down offer sheets.
It's not every day that a $7.2 million cap hit is a steal, but it is for Joe Thornton. He took a discount to keep the Sharks competitive. Last year he was the hottest trade rumor gone un-traded, but Patrick Marleau is now quite reasonable at $6.3 million.
The biggest steal is probably Marc Edouard Vlasic's deal which goes for $3.1 million per year until 2012-13. Vlasic's gotten some rave reviews but I'll let our Sharks pundits cover that base.
After putting up a great season, is Dan Boyle's contract really that "scary" after all? Well, it's at least satanic: his cap hit is a devilish $6.667 per year up to 2013-14. The biggest issue is age: he's already 32 years old. It's hard to imagine him being worth that much once he hits his late 30's, but right now it's worth it.
***
As you can see, each Pacific team has its strengths and weaknesses. Overall, the division is chock full of great values (particularly in deals for team captains and power forwards) with only a handful of albatross type deals. Every team is better than the woeful New York Rangers, who better hope they get more out of Scott Gomez, Chris Drury and Wade Redden or they're going to be in the same rut Glen Sather got them in before the lockout.
Which team has the brightest future from next year to five years to 10 years from now? Who has the best contract in the division? I'd like to hear what you cats think on these subjects and more.
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D Brown
Goin for the shutout
for mediocore Kings coverage from a hardcore fan:
http://theheirtothethrone.blogspot.com/
Cast my vote for Brown, too, although Getzlaf was pretty damn close. You’ve got to hand it to this division: each team really does have a couple downright bargains.
Yeah, Brown’s contract is pretty ridiculous — maybe should be its own poll.
I guess the only caveat is that the only real benefit to having a bargain player is if you spend that saved money on something else useful for a team. I’m not sure the Kings can claim to have done that yet.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I guess the only caveat is that the only real benefit to having a bargain player is if you spend that saved money on something else useful for a team. I’m not sure the Kings can claim to have done that yet.
Agreed. When considering context, the Ducks are in really good shape. The only question is whether or not they can take advantage of that situation with their new GM.
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
Well I voted from the player's standpoint
I voted Getzlaf, but had I voted from a GM standpoint, I would have voted Brown.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
It’s a tough call. As mepex said, Getzlaf has already arrived as a star in the league. At the same time, Brown is steal. Marc Edouard Vlasic’s getting some votes too. Where does Vlasic really rank in the hearts and minds of BoCers? He turned into a beast in an NHL 08 franchise, so if that holds true than the Sharks might have the biggest steal of ’em all…
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Where does Vlasic really rank in the hearts and minds of BoCers?
He ranks higher in my mind than my heart, that’s for sure.
Still, Vlasic would probably be my second choice of the five — the Kings probably have the better player/leader in Brown, but in the Sharks’ case, you can see where they are spending saved money rather than pocketing it. Vlasic’s contract enables the Sharks to spend judiciously on other positions, and Doug Wilson hasn’t been hesitant to do just that.
He’s a hell of a player — probably not flashy enough that people think of him as a big difference maker — but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with players like that.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah he’s definitely good enough to help my fantasy team to 13 – 2 this year. He’ll probably be one of my keepers. Still, at this point, I’d say Brown is better, but that could change in time.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
I guess the follow-up question
And there’s no real right or wrong answer here. But here goes:
Is there any contract on this list that you (as a GM) would trade straight-up to Detroit for the rights to Zetterberg’s new 12-year, $72M lifetime contract extension?
For as much patting on Ken Holland’s back as that contract has gotten, I’m leaning towards “no”.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
No. I don’t like that at all. Anything over 5 years worries me. It’s the same reason I wouldn’t have taken Brian Campbell’s contract. It’s not necessarily the $ amount, it’s the number of years that comes with it.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
Agreed
Anyone who has ever worked in academia can tell you lifetime contracts are more cases than not a quick ticket to stagnation. Sure, there are those talented and motivated professionals who continue their break-neck scholarship long after they get tenure. But then you also have a college/university filled with “what are they going to do, fire me?” types, as well.
There is something to be said for the motivation that comes with the “working to keep your job” mentality.
BTW
It’s hard to imagine Scott Niedermayer coming back again, so could the Ducks be an unexpected spot for a guy like Jay Bouwmeester?
I honestly have no idea what to expect out of Scotty this summer, but I wouldn’t rule out a return to the Ducks. I don’t get the sense that he’s retiring just before the Vancouver Olympics, so really the question is where would he want to play, and how much would he want to play for?
I don’t have any idea on that second part, but as for the first, I’d think Anaheim is on his list. I’m hopeful he feels some guilt for taking the start of last year off, but then again, who knows with that guy?
Still, I guess I’d say there’s nothing automatic that says that Scotty can’t be a Duck again next fall. I don’t have much trouble imagining it, at least.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
No doubt, he COULD play if he wanted to. It’s not like age has made him a shadow of the player he once was (unless you count his KDOC shadow). Plus, another 6+ mil (?) in your account only makes retirement that much more fun.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
I'm curious...
Vlasic currently has more votes than Dustin Brown. Would anyone who voted for Vlasic’s contract as better than Brown’s care to explain their reasoning? I think it is solely due to some NorCal myopia/blinders…
Paul Lo Duca is MLB's Pablo Escobar..
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jan 29, 2009 12:23 PM PST reply actions
Yeah weird, I’ve seen polls where the majority of the comments disagree with the majority of the votes. I hate when that happens.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
I’m sure that Rudy’s busy right now thinking of a real good Twitter to explain this one…
Paul Lo Duca is MLB's Pablo Escobar..
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jan 29, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
When I mentioned Scott Nieds not coming back, I was thinking he would retire. Then again, if my fantasy team’s results are any indication it seems like Lightningbeard’s starting to heat up.
Doesn’t the length of that Zetterberg deal make it inevitably bad at some point? Sure, it’s great that he’s only getting $1 mill toward the end, but if the CBA stays (relatively) the same that’s still a $6 million cap hit each year.
Shit, in 12 years will Detroit even exist? Our empire is crruuuummmbbbbling!
/Kids in the Hall “Brain Candy”
Sure, it’s great that he’s only getting $1 mill toward the end, but if the CBA stays (relatively) the same that’s still a $6 million cap hit each year.
I’m thinking the odds of Detroit eating that cap hit in the last two years is near-zero, though. Zetterberg will likely retire $2M and 2 years short of his full contract, and Detroit will probably get a decade-long $6M/yr cap hit for a guy they’re essentially paying $7M/yr.
Have to love that cap-cheating mentality — we really need to keep that in mind the next time owners tell us how expensive paying hockey players is. Solution? Stop cheating your own cap, idiots.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Heh, yeah you’re probably right. Now, my question is: since the contract was signed now does that exclude the Red Wings from the penalties that come with a retiring veteran? Now, I’m not a CBA expert but I was under the impression that there was a full cap penalty for retiring veterans (like, say, if Teemu Selanne retired). But that could all just be due to reading hockey articles on NyQuil or something.
By the way, I should have asked people to write-in the “other” choice. Who did you pick: Alex Frolov? Corey Perry? Brad Richards? ;-)
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Now, I’m not a CBA expert but I was under the impression that there was a full cap penalty for retiring veterans (like, say, if Teemu Selanne retired).
There almost certainly should be (and may be soon). With the CBA we have now, though, the only time a retired player’s cap hit continues is if a player who is older than 35 signs a multi-year deal then retires or is demoted before it’s over. Zetterberg’s commitment is similar, but he made the commitment before he was 35, so apparently it’s completely different.
Basically, in the BoC, I think it only applies to Schneider’s deal a few summers ago and Teemu’s current deal, though I haven’t taken a comprehensive look.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah, I figured that the age-at-signing would be the loophole. That certainly softens the blow a bit on that contract, although the Red Wings might regret that for a simple reason: Zetterberg gets hurt every year. That should only get worse as he grows older.
It’s pretty obvious the Red Wings will be a to-the-cap team at least until Lidstrom retires (and knowing them, probably forever), so signing Z was still a good headache reducer.
The contract is better than those awful Drury/Briere/Gomez deals, though. Woof.
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
That certainly softens the blow a bit on that contract, although the Red Wings might regret that for a simple reason: Zetterberg gets hurt every year. That should only get worse as he grows older.
Well, it sucks in the sense that right now there seems to be no expected ramification at all for a team to overcommit to the future. Heck, why not give him a contract that pays him until he’s 80? Nobody’s going to hold you to it (at this point anyways), and I dislike systems where bad decisions aren’t discouraged.
The only risk, as I understand it, is (a) as you noted, if Zetterberg injures himself in such a way that he’s not worth near $6M, or worse, (b) injures his way out of the game. In that latter case, I believe something like four years of Z’s contract is covered by insurance, and the rest will have to come out of Detroit’s pockets. That’s not a comprehensive summary at all (there’s probably some buyout options then), but I do think a career-ending injury is probably Detroit’s worst case scenario now.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Wow, a career-ending injury and its insurance related troubles is something I hadn’t considered. Just look at the New York Islanders with Ricky D.
Zetterberg’s been much more productive than Rick Dipietro, but isn’t it funny that the general media reaction is the exact opposite? Just shows how much reputation and team success can make two similar contracts polar opposites.
(And Rick D is younger, if that makes the two a little closer)
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions
So wait, could they not cheat the cap by signing a 33 or 34 year old to a 12 year deal, and then have that guy making decent money, but have a much lower cap hit. Then the years at the end of the contract would be very low, but he doesn’t plan on playing more than 3 years or so into the future, so it wouldn’t matter.
That sucks. Though perhaps something that ridiculous would motivate the NHL to make stricter guidelines and penalties with the cap.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
Vlasic
I think the reason I voted for Vlasic were: 1) He is already a top 2 quality D-Man, both offensively and defensively, and he is only 21, 2) Finding defensemen with offensive upside is tougher than finding tough guys with scoring touch, and 3) he is a low risk for injury because of his playing style. The fans love hitting, but Vlasic is proving you can be a shutdown D-Man with great positioning and stick work. I’d take 5-1 odds that Vlasic will spend less time on the DL that Brown.
Of course, on a scale of 1-100 for bargains, 100 being an absolute steal, I think Vlasic is a 90 and Brown an 88. So it is very close.
*Full disclosure: I am a Sharks fan.
These are all some strong points. They make about the same cash, so it’s really about who has more potential and a better contribution. It’s clear that Vlasic-Getzlaf-Brown is a very tough call overall. Do you pay the extra money for a true proven Cup winning star? Get the rugged leader? Or the businesslike defenseman? It’s an even better poll question than I originally thought.
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
Good work on the asterisk at the end there — we’ve had some SBN discussions about comment-asterisk technology, and it’s more oftentimes frustrating than useful. I think if you had included a space after the asterisk, like so:
* Full disclosure: I am a Sharks fan.
it would have automatically turned itself into a bullet, like so:
- Full disclosure: I am a Sharks fan.
Anyways, that’s just distraction from the overall point. Like James said, you’ve got pretty good reasons there, too. Still, if I had to sign both Vlasic and Brown to a three-year deal today, I’m guessing Vlasic’s re-negotiated salary would be closer to what it is today than it would be for Brown.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
It’s odd, sometimes I LOVE auto-correcting and sometimes auto-correcting drives me up the wall. One instant example: when Microsoft Word makes “2nd” look weird. Hate that.
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
Oh god I hate Microsoft Word’ auto-correcting.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
Hey, speaking of formatting
the upper-left BoC logo is not showing well at all on my computer. I’m about to shoot a note to SBN (we couldn’t have messed that up — we don’t even have access to it), but wanted to make sure it’s true for everybody.
So… yay or nay? Is your upper-left BoC logo a mess?
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah
It’s all stretched upward and disproportionate.
How did you score the little tiny URL-logo thing of the Beers clinging together? I’ve always wondered how you do that.
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
How did you score the little tiny URL-logo thing of the Beers clinging together? I’ve always wondered how you do that.
I’d love to answer this question to some satisfaction, but I’m very very confused as to what you’re asking.
If you’re asking who made that upper left logo — the SBN tech team did it off an old cartoon of mine (mostly through re-shaping, not re-drawing). I don’t think that’s the question, though?
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Maybe you don't use Firefox
Or maybe I just couldn’t describe it well enough. But I think you answered my question anyway; I’m guessing the tech guys from SBN did it?
People who save up for a rainy day are like milk. And milk goes good with cookies, so you should have those people over for cookies.
Good Stuff Ruben...
I appreciate your arguments for Vlasic. Each and everyone is certainly valid. My response would be that with Brownie’s contract, there should be a premium value paid to someone who is capable of leading a team as a 24 year-old captain, and whom raises your team’s league wide exposure by being selected for the all-star game (It’s the Kings…there’s not too many of those, yet). Brown’s intangibles as a qualified team leader makes his under-valued contract the undisbuted best deal of the Pacific Division.
Paul Lo Duca is MLB's Pablo Escobar..
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jan 29, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions
Brown’s intangibles as a qualified team leader makes his under-valued contract the undisbuted best deal of the Pacific Division.
I dispute that.
I dispute that.
But as long as you don’t disbute it, I think Dodger’s point is still valid. :)
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I once got butey in a Burger King bathroom! I’m crazy…
Paul Lo Duca is MLB's Pablo Escobar..
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jan 29, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
True
Though I bet at 24 Vlasic will be considered every bit the leader Brown currently is seen as. And if Vlasic were on the Kings, he’d already be an alternate, even at his young age.
@Sleek
I think you are right, about the renegotiated salary. And that really is the right way to think about it for this question. If I was building my team, though, I’d rather give the same amount of money to Vlasic than to Brown. The market for businesslike defenseman, however, dictates a much lower offer. Maybe that goes to a larger point, that non-physical (yet still effective) defenseman as a whole are undervalued…
That’s a fair point, and it’s hard to argue with a mobile, young, two-way defenseman as a building block of your squadron (as Apu would say).
And really, this gets to the bigger question of valuation. Are you picking a contract based on whom you want to land to build a franchise, or are you think in terms of best value for the position?
If you go with the latter, you’d be hard pressed to argue with Brown, just because there aren’t many players out there who combine the physical game with scoring like he does, and at a salary that’s very cap friendly. Plus, another consideration for me was that Brown is under contract for the longest term (one year longer than most of the rest), yet he’ll still be in his prime when the contract ends.
While I’d agree with the sentiments mentioned above that Brown’s game makes him a likelier candidate for a few stays on IR, I think he’s less likely to become injury prone until after the contract expires. The shelf life for a power forward to perform at a maximum level may be shorter than your run-of-the-mill forward, but I wouldn’t expect significant decline until this contract ends.
by Alexander Dubcek on Jan 29, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
Franzen
Also, I was thinking about this earlier today, and the comment in the post about L.A. being a possible landing spot for Johan Franzen reminded me of it, but I can’t avoid the feeling that Franzen is in many ways a product of the Red Wings, and that the system in Detroit maximizes his potential in a way he’s unlike to recreate if he goes elsewhere. I just have nightmare visions of a team like the Kings signing Franzen to a huge contract, then watching his production fall off dramatically.
Granted, I haven’t watched Franzen play that much, so maybe someone can address this more authoritatively, but I feel like he’s someone who wouldn’t thrive outside that particular dynamic, whereas a player like Zetterberg or Hossa would still put up big numbers outside Detroit.
by Alexander Dubcek on Jan 29, 2009 4:57 PM PST reply actions
Franzen is also another injury prone forward. Concussion problems can be a real sticking point (just ask a certain Mr. Lindros and Bergeron).
by jamestobrien on Jan 29, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I forgot about that. That’s a bad combination with large numbers of years and dollars.
by Alexander Dubcek on Jan 29, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions
I voted for Vlasic; I though I’d mention it here as I’m definitely not a Sharks fan.
ruben398 already had good points about him, but an additional thing that affected my reasoning was that the going rate for d-men has been getting all crazy lately. And seeing how demanding today’s game is for Vlasic’s type of do-it-all d-men, I don’t expect that trend to change.
Still, Brown’s contract is also a totally insane steal, and Getzlaf has that superstardom thingy going for him. It’s pretty much a toss-up between these three in my mind, but since it’s become obvious that top d-men are either impossible to find or cost 7-8 million bucks a year (unless you manage to get one via draft) I went for Vlasic here.
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