Ducks Gameday—Better know your playoff odds
by Earl Sleek on Jan 31, 2009 10:55 AM PST
42 comments
Anaheim Ducks (24-22-5, t-5th in west) at Colorado Avalanche (23-25-1, t-12th in west)
For your Avs needs, Mile High Hockey
There's been some response to the playoff-odds calculator that I linked to a few days ago -- notably a rival site Sports Club Stats has sent me a link to their Ducks playoff odds site, which looks pretty damn thorough. If you spend some time to figure out how to read it, it shows you the impact of every night's game on the Ducks' postseason likelihood -- last night, for example: the Ducks' chances were hurt by a Blue Jackets victory over Ottawa, but they were helped by a Calgary win over Nashville, and an Edmonton regulation win over Minnesota was sort of a push.
It also shows how playoff likelihood has plummetted for the Ducks over the past month-plus, down from a 2/3 probability in mid-December down to today's 37.9%:
Apparently the Ducks are now as bad off as they were after their 1-5-0 season start. Yuck.
This grid is pretty impressive, too, which charts out what probably will happen if the Ducks end with different records in their final 31 games:
10 million scenarios played out seems pretty impressive, but why stop there?
So the lesson? It's an uphill battle for the Ducks, that's for sure. But the other lesson? These days we have computers voting for All-Star Games and nightly calculating who to root against -- we have reached the age where a computer is a better hockey fan than I am. At last.
Prediction: Ducks lose admirably, but Pahlsson plays well.
Go Ducks.
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Ducks lose admirably, but Pahlsson plays well.
Unacceptable. I hope you’re VERY wrong…maybe except for the Pahlsson thing.
GO DUCKS!! Girlwithapuck.blogspot.com
So what does this do to Giguere’s already shaky confidence? He’s going to get a start at some point, but right now it looks like Hiller is straight up the No. 1 goalie.
The only thing I can think of is this…
remember at the end of the 06-07 season, and his son was born and Bryz played those first playoff games? They brought Jiggy back into the line-up when Bryz got pulled during game 4. He was outstanding after that. I keep thinking that’s what RC is going to try and do with Jiggy now. Wait until a night comes when Hiller is just off and he needs to be pulled.
GO DUCKS!! Girlwithapuck.blogspot.com
Yeah, but both were on odd-man rushes. Sure, Hiller could/should have stopped them, but they weren’t as bad as the ones Giguere was giving up.
how quickly things change…
how quickly the Ducks start looking like crap.
GO DUCKS!! Girlwithapuck.blogspot.com
Haha! Looks like Getzlaf is going to be losing a few more teeth!
GO DUCKS!! Girlwithapuck.blogspot.com
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Pacific Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Jose
|
82 | 51 | 20 | 11 | 113 |
|
Phoenix
|
82 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 107 |
|
Los Angeles
|
82 | 46 | 27 | 9 | 101 |
|
Anaheim
|
82 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 89 |
|
Dallas
|
82 | 37 | 31 | 14 | 88 |
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