'Lotta history down that ruuud

by jamestobrien on Jan 5, 2009 11:37 AM PST Comment 13 comments

Jud_medium

Ever since, oh, November it's been obvious that the Stars need only to click on the "Conference" link for ESPN's NHL Standings and ignore any dreams of winning their division. There was a sliver of time when this didn't apply to the Anaheim Ducks but now that experience is shared by every non-stick-biting team in the Pacific.

As the Ducks fall back to the pack (a drop that not-too-surprisingly coincides with the Finnish Flash's gnarly thigh injury) and the Phoenix Coyotes stay in the playoff picture, it's looking more and more like this year's playoffs will accomodate the top three Pacific teams.

If you ask me, that means that the 'Yotes and Stars are jousting for a 7th or 8th seed.

The Coyotes and Stars might duke it out for a low playoff spot

But just in case the Ducks spit the bit and go from my Stanley Cup pick to missing the playoffs, let's compare the three teams' schedules:

Dallas: Home: (9-6-3); Road: (8-10-2)

Biggest road trips: Three different three-game road trips, including a tour of the BoC (San Jose - LA - Anaheim) and rough three-gamer (SJ, CGY, Van) in the month of March. They end the season with a three-game road trip as well.

It could be that the rest of the season will be a grind for the Stars, but don't be surprised if that last road trip makes-or-breaks their season. (If they can survive that tough month of March)

Softest month: February - a four game homestand plus five games of a six game homestand leading into March ... only three road games to 10 home games.

Phoenix: Home: (13-5-2); Road: (6-11-3)

The Coyotes have a few really rough stretches left this season.

First, there's a key four-game road trip against the Western Conference's bubble teams: Minn., Van., CGY and Edmonton. Winning those games would give the 'Yotes a nice amount of breathing room.

The most brutal stretch is more trying than anything the Stars will face for the rest of the season. Phoenix has a three game road trip and a five game road trip with a home game against St. Louis sandwiched in between. Eight of nine games on the road for a team that struggles with consistency? Yikes.

Their last month of the season might be rough on a West coast team, as they ping pong back and forth without consecutive road or home games. On the bright side, the Coyotes have two three game homestands and one four-gamer.

Anaheim: Home: (11-8-3); Road: (9-7-2)

Though the Coyotes face sharper peaks and valleys, the Ducks' schedule is pretty rough itself.

They have a five game road trip this month that sends them all over the States: from Pittsburgh to Minnesota to NYR and Islanders all the way back to Phoenix. The Ducks might luck out with struggling Penguins and Wild clubs (and the sub-human Islanders) but that's still a trying trek with two sets of back-to-backs.

After that brutal trip, February is even worse: 8 road games to 4 home games including five of a six game trip that ends in March.

But, hey, look on the bright side, the schedule makers set aside an hour and a half for the Ducks to play with themselves on April 2:

Credit: Earl Sleek

Teehee.

Priceless analysis you TOTALLY couldn't make just from looking at each team's schedule:

The Stars clearly sport the cushiest schedule of the three teams. Both the Coyotes and Ducks have some pretty serious gut checks and Anaheim's are pretty ill-timed considering injuries and their semi-malaise.

It might be ridiculous to say this, but after looking over these schedules it would be pretty shocking if the Stars are the odd team out. Judging from a few of those stretches, either the Ducks or Coyotes will probably slip into on-the-bubble or perhaps even draft lottery status.

Based on the Coyotes combination of rough road ahead and awful road record, my guess is that the Sharks, Stars and Ducks once again represent the Pacific division.

What is your take, fearless readers? Are the Coyotes and Ducks as good as effed? Will the Stars continue to underwhelm and miss the playoffs? Could it be that only ONE of the three will make it to the post-season?

And most importantly:

Will the Ducks, indeed, play with themselves on Thursday, April 2?

Just an absolute inferno of burning questions.

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Dan Wood of the OC Register is always talking warily about the end of the Ducks schedule — lots of road games, etc., but that’s never been a huge deal by me. It always seems that more important than game location is really which Ducks team will show up — the one that teared up the early season on the road (less the first six games), or the team that blew 7 leads on their last 5-game trip?

I dunno, my tragic flaw this year is of course positivity, and I’m not very worried about Selanne being out of the lineup in particular — seemingly the second line and the power play have improved with Bobby Ryan there instead of the Finnish Flash (though B-Mo waking up and becoming an NHL player was helpful in its own right).

I guess the thing about the Ducks is, they’ve played pretty awful for pretty long stretches and still have a spot in that top 8. It’s nothing concrete, but I suspect the Ducks will be better in their next 10 games than they were in their last 10 (almost by default) — they got unlucky on some 4-3 scores, and I think they’ll improve their points-rate from what we’ve seen from them lately.

Still, three teams fighting for (potentially) two spots isn’t so bad. At least the team that is playing the worst (and thus would probably lose quickly in a 7-game-series) is likely to miss out altogether.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jan 5, 2009 11:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t blame you for being positive. There’s a lot to like about the Ducks’ team this year (and maybe Selanne simply isn’t suited for an 82 game schedule anymore).

Being that the Stars have a pretty breezy schedule and the Ducks can play with 99 percent of the NHL, the schedule will make or break the Coyotes the most IMO. They could really fall apart during one of those bruising trips, especially when you consider the fact that they’re very home dependent and young.

by jamestobrien on Jan 5, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Dan Wood...

is Dan Wood the guy who was on during the 2nd intermission on the radio broadcast last night? If so… he definitely needs to be taught about the positivity. He was finding it difficult to find things that were good about the team this season.

by Niekon on Jan 5, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I heard that interview

I actually didn’t listen to the game until the 2nd period, but yeah — Dan Wood needs some help on that positivity angle. He did say some good things about Iowa Chops promotees and the fact that the Ducks were top-8 without ever having dominated for any stretch, but he certainly liked focusing on the negatives. But hey, he’s a newspaper man — just the facts, jack.

I was also amused that he couldn’t or wouldn’t give his blog’s web address. :)

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jan 5, 2009 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

still think

we need some major shakeup…i could be wrong…ebbet and morrison have been intresting…

p.s.
those 2 4-3 loses really fucking pissed me off

El Spade-o

by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jan 5, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, you and Dan Wood are both right — or at least more right than I am so far — the team hasn’t performed well enough to have a successful playoffs… yet.

My problem is twofold: (a) There’s still time for this team to get its act together on its own, and we have seen glimpses of what this team could do with its head screwed on straight, and mostly (b) that there’s really no salary room for a big move, we almost have to ride out Burke’s vision for this year.

So my take, which isn’t supported by any spreadsheet, is just to focus on positivity — sure, this team might still fall flat on its face this year, but that’s why next year’s clean slate roster is well-timed. And also, I think there’s enough talent and enough for the Ducks to get better on their own. We’ll see — I might still end up the fool for believing, but even if so, I think it’s still better than spending months stressing over poor play that may not matter (not compared to the importance of playing well in the playoffs).

It’s sort of the antithesis of last year, in a way. Instead of celebrating a fabulous regular season team only to see them shit the bed in the first two games of the postseason, I’m concentrating a lot less on that regular season thing and just hoping that we’ll see a better effort in game 83 and 84 than we did last year.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jan 5, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

is that Fred Gwynne in that photo (a.k.a. Herman Munster)? Kinda looks like him.

by tbell61 on Jan 5, 2009 3:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well done

Yup, that’s Fred Gwynne playing Jud Crandall in “Pet Sematary.”

(Gosh, the spelling of that movie just kills me.)

by jamestobrien on Jan 5, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree Earl. I would rather have this team take it easy, find out what works and what fails now, all while crusing to a nice #6 or 7 seed in the playoffs. I doubt they can catch San Jose, and I would hate to see them do it just to get rewarded with the #1 seed in the playoffs a first round matchup against a pissed off Dallas team who knows they own Anaheim.

Number six would be my choice, all things considered I would love a first round against Van. or Cal. That seems to have worked well in the past.

by Mike in OC on Jan 5, 2009 4:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Number six would be my choice, all things considered I would love a first round against Van. or Cal.

And that’s probably fine by me — my only caveat is that a sick part of me is kind of hoping the Ducks fall into the 8th seed. Sure, it’s a formula for failure, and you should never wish yourself down in the standings, and it probably means another early exit, BUT . . .

. . . we’ve also seen the last three years that somebody always chokes the round before a postseason BoC, and perhaps the only way to get one of these to actually happen is to make it happen right off the bat. I’ve gone on record as saying that I’m not as scared of the postseason Sharks as I probably should be, and maybe it would be cool to put that foolhardiness to an early test.

Besides, the way the odds would run on a 1-Sharks vs. 8-Ducks series, it’s almost a can’t-lose. I mean, the Ducks might almost certainly lose, but that would at least be expected. An upset smash would be super super sweet, though (and hasn’t Pronger done really well from the 8-slot in the west in the past? ;) )

Ah, stupid wishes.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jan 5, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs