Ducks Gameday -- The Devil's Road Trip
Anaheim Ducks (6-7-2, 14 pts) at New Jersey Devils (11-4-0, 22 pts), 4 pm
More at Anaheim Calling and In Lou We Trust, plus Spade chips in with a Fanpost.
Well, there are signs of life for these Anaheim Ducks, though it's unclear yet how stable it promises to be. The Ducks have won 3 of their last 5 games, though all three victories were at home against injury-depleted opponents, and now get to test that recent optimism against a pretty daunting road trip -- here's how their next four opponents fared at home last season.
2008-09 Home Records
Wed. NJD 28–12–1
Fri. CBJ 25–13–3
Sat. DET 27–9–5
Mon. PIT 25–13–3
Combined 105–47–12
Last season, only ten teams lost 16 games or fewer at home -- the Ducks will visit four of those teams over the next six-day span. Using last year as a basis, an average traveling team would get 3.44 out of a possible 8 standings points on this road trip; do the Ducks have the mettle to do any better?
I've segmented the Ducks' 15-game season into three 5-game sets below, just to show what could be a turnaround. It's definitely a bit deceptive, though -- in Game Ten, for example, the Ducks gave up 5 PPGs to the Maple Leafs; had that game been shifted to the last grouping some of this post's positivity disappears quickly. Plus five games is always a shaky sample size. Nevertheless:
There are some genuine signs of improvement -- shot discrepancy is narrowing noticeably, penalty killing has seemed effective of late, and definitely goals-for have been going in. The first five games the Ducks hung even, despite being outshot wildly. The second five games the Ducks imploded -- the shooting actually improved, but goaltending/defensive results were horrible. The last five games have served as some pattern for success for the Ducks -- after the jump, a look at how some of the individual players' stats changed over each segment.
The analysis here isn't going to be too heavy -- I'm really just looking at points and plus-minus for sets of players for each of the five-game segments. I did also look at shots-on-goal, but didn't end up including it; mostly Anaheim's improvement in shot discrepancy came on the defensive end, it seems.
Also, I've grouped players vaguely according to role -- Getzlaf and Perry always play as a top-line pairing, as do Koivu and Selanne on line two. Lupul and Ryan I've thrown together as the two tagalongs -- they've traded spots a ton among the top two lines. And all other forwards and d-men just get a lump-sum total.
Points-wise, it's easy to see why games 11-15 were the Ducks' most successful -- every grouping enjoyed their best production. But it's the painful games 6-10 that interest me; what ailed the Ducks when they couldn't win? And by eye, the biggest fallback goes to the Line 2 Finns -- their failure to deliver hardly anything in those five games stands out as a big factor in the slump.
The plus-minus portion helps spread that blame a bit -- nobody was really outscoring those five games, but again, the big number points at Teemu and Koivu for that stretch -- their line was giving up goals way too easily.
I'm not going to point fingers at those two, though -- five games is nothing to fume over, and with their performance in the next five games, it's already water under the bridge. But it does stress a bit the need for Anaheim's second line to keep productive -- when they are effective (along with other lines doing as they should), it seems that's a key to Anaheim's success.
Which isn't a new realization by any means -- since the Cup season, the Ducks have been on a hunt for effective second-line scoring. First Andy McDonald struggled to carry the line (without Selanne the semi-retirer), then Doug Weight, then Brendan Morrison, then Andrew Ebbett, and now the task falls on Saku Koivu. In the last five games we've certainly seen Koivu (and Selanne -- he has onus here too) carry his end of the deal, while the top line and depth lines have also delivered -- in a sense, the Ducks have played their formula for success.
At least the last five games, the Getzlaf line has been productive (though he still could be better), the Koivu line has followed up nicely, and the depth forwards have limited their bleeding -- if the Ducks can keep that up for their next five games (consistency? shudder), there may be hope on this road trip. Besides, the Devils, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, and Penguins are all injury-plagued to various degrees; here's hoping the Ducks can keep taking advantage of that.
* * *
I don't know one way or another whether there is some plan to trade J.S. Giguere to Toronto for Vesa Toskala -- I'm never very good at believing in rumors (I'd use "rumours" except this seems to be an OC Register scoop), but an expiring goaltending contract for a bad goalie looks better than a non-expiring non-movable contract for a questionable goalie in my books. Either guy can be Hiller's backup, I suppose, and maybe Toskala's play improves when he hears all the Finnish chatter in the locker room.
The real question, though, is "what else needs to be involved in a trade", and to tell the truth, I'm not quite sure which team needs to chip in more assets to make the fictitious trade work out. As usual, we'll probably need to see an actual trade happen before I can offer too much useful commentary, but if you're bored and want to talk it up, comments are open. Theorize away!
Prediction: The game gets delayed 2 1/2 months midway through the second period when a careless sideline reporter asks Scott Niedermayer whether he'd rather retire or be a backup goaltender. "Hmmmmmm...."
Go Ducks.
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the Getzlaf line has been productive (though he still could be better)
Of all the things going on right now with the Ducks, this one bothers me the most. Something about the half assed play from Getzlaf gets under my skin. He knows the team needs him. It’s almost like he knows that games will be easier/harder depending on how much effort he decides to put forth (ah, that fucking Burkie quote…I hate how true it is sometimes).
LAME!
He has been making some glaringly awful decisions with the puck lately, almost to the point where I cringe when he’s in the defensive zone. That’s not the top NHLer we know.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Getzlaf isn’t playing half-assed, he had hernia surgery in the off-season. He couldn’t skate or anything this off-season. He’ll get hot in a while; you just have to hope that he gets hot before it’s too late.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
I understand that conditioning aspect of it all…but I didn’t think we’d still be making that excuse in November.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Don’t forget how long it took Pahlsson to be himself last year. Patience is part of the process for sure.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Nov 11, 2009 9:57 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
OH! and as for Jiggy, I say trade him. This team doesn’t have the time, the luxury,or the cap space to wait around for him to find his game.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Well, there is sort of the luxury. There’s no crime in seeing Jiggy’s contract through, nor would it necessarily cripple this team. The Ducks still could be spending more, theoretically.
But yeah, Toronto is better-suited to take the waiting gamble, and Burkie does carry some onus for the existence of the contract himself. We’ll see what the trade terms are, though. I could go either way.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Nov 11, 2009 10:06 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know one way or another whether there is some plan to trade J.S. Giguere to Toronto for Vesa Toskala — I’m never very good at believing in rumors (I’d use “rumours” except this seems to be an OC Register scoop), but an expiring goaltending contract for a bad goalie looks better than a non-expiring non-movable contract for a questionable goalie in my books. Either guy can be Hiller’s backup, I suppose, and maybe Toskala’s play improves when he hears all the Finnish chatter in the locker room.
I feel kind of bad for Gigure. He’s done a lot for us in the past. I still think there’s a great goaltender in Gigure. He’s just not present right now. I’m guessing we could probably resign Hiller for less then 6 million a season at this point, so if we did trade Gigure, that would give us a little more cap space. Hiller is younger and currently performing better. He’s probably the safest bet.
I still think there’s a great goaltender in Giguere. He’s just not present right now.
Definitely, and I think for the most part, he’s played pretty well this season (2nd/3rd of the CBJ excepted) — team hasn’t scored him many goals. But the remainder of his contract is still a gamble — we have seen both Giguere’s upside and downside — and I wouldn’t mind shifting it to another team, if the price is right.
That’s the whole thing, though — I need to more know than “Toskala’s involved”. There’s plenty of prices where I’d suck it up and keep Giguere — no need to overforce movement.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Thanks for the link to my FanPost Sleek!
Another thing about Giguere… If he decides to retire because he’s a backup, wouldn’t a trade to Toronto be out of the question? I thought Burke has said that Gustavsson is the man that they decided to go with. I can’t remember where I read it, but the thought was to bring in Jiggy as a mentor… doesn’t mean that he’ll be the backup?
good video of Carlyle, Selanne, Brown, Wiz over at Anaheim Calling.
This road trip is a big test for us. I’m fucking excited. Stoked on this 4 o’clock game.
hooked on quack
Yeah, without the day job the 4:00 time is solid — I don’t know how east coasters wait all day for hockey to start, that’d drive me nuts.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
So no Koivu tonight?
That makes this SK11 a bit bummed… Hope he’s okay.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Well, that was fast. I didn’t know about Koivu either — bad blogger that I am.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Hope he’s okay.
For sure, because if he’s out a good stretch, then waiving Ebbett looks kind of bad, methinks.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Game sheet says healthy scratch. Do you guys think he’s nicked up but hiding it or has he really been that terrible?
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 11, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
He’s been awesome, dude. Mutli-point streak, faceoffs — he’s hurt. Fuck scoresheets.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Makes more sense. I know he had a slow start but I never thought he was bench-worthy bad.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 11, 2009 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
Okay, that’s lame. Why the hell honor the 2003 Cup Devils more than SIX years later??? And how conweenient that it’s the night that the Ducks visit?! WTF??
Hahaha, sorry — I just saw this. I can’t hold my liquor at all, and I’m much more liable to fall asleep before I do anything interesting. Sometimes I feel like a fake BoC’er.
i can’t tell the difference, the Ducks don’t score in either situation.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
It dawns on me now why you stick with eleven so vehemently — happy birthday!
Night’s bound to improve from here.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
It dawns on me now why you stick with eleven so vehemently
ummm, yea…
Thanks yall!
Much better than what the Ducks gave me today!
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
well, look on the bright side. We only have to 3 more games to win on this road trip to really stay in contention with the rest of the conference. fuck.
hooked on quack
I totally missed this game due to being a dumbass. Anyway, sucks. Here’s my cheer up video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuOvqeABHvQ
It remindes me of the Ducks PK when they played Toronto. Me and my friends still quote this one. Do me a favor, count the number of times you say “What the fuck?” while watching this and let me know how many times you said it?
This first surface in one of the Spike and Mike Twisted animation festivals and I believe it won.
Very cool — I’d seen that before, but it definitely cheers me up.
Yeah, last night’s game wasn’t about a comically bad PK — rather, a comically awful PP. Gotta change it up once in a while.
http://www.battleofcali.com/

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