Looking at the numbers you posted on your article, Mike, you figured about a 5.3M cap hit for 5 years, based on how you anticipate him to perform over those years. I don’t think that’s too far off the mark, because I was guessing he was worth about 5-6/yr myself, especially if the team keeps the same forward group going forward. Having a growing Panelski/Setoguchi plus Thornton/Heatley and possibly Clowe is a really good group to work with, and could definitely allow Marleau to exceed the expecations you lined up.

Given that, plus the fact that he will continue to be a valuable piece on special teams and faceoffs, even if his point production slides, I don’t think its unreasonable to add another year or two to the 5 years you’re talking about. Add another year or two at lower salaries, you’ll have him tied up until he’s 37 or 38, and can drag the salary hit down below 5M. Barring a major injury, the only time I see him really being a boat anchor for the team is in the last 2-3 years of the deal, and that’s no certainty either. A year or two of an overpay in exchange for helping to keep the current championship window open is a fair deal, especially when a chunk of that money probably also goes towards smoothing over all the shit he’s taken the last couple years.

I’d feel comfortable giving him a 7 year deal, something like 4.75M/yr. It certainly won’t be an overpayment for the first 4 years or so, and after that, you’re looking at it being close enough to being over with that any issues become less of a problem. Besides, you have to remember, those deals will become considerably more attractive near their end to certain teams. If Marleau is getting paid 1M in his final year, and his cap hit is 4.75M, a bottom feeder that just needs to meet the cap floor and save money while tanking would certainly like to take that contract, and save 3.75M. I think deals like this will become much more movable than people think, for that reason.