Ducks Gameday -- The Most Frustrating Concurrent Eleven-Game Scoring Streaks Ever
Anaheim Ducks (6-9-3, 15th in west) at Pittsburgh Penguins (13-7-0, 3rd in east), 4:30 pm
Penguins buzz at PensBurgh and The Pensblog; Ducks buzzkill at Anaheim Calling.
Well, this season's pretty much over. Or at least it's become hugely reliant on a scripted Disney finish.
Even if the Ducks finish the rest of their season seven games above .500 from here on out (32-25-7, let's say), there's less than a 1% chance that they'll qualify for the postseason -- based on Sports Club Stats' 457,757 simulations with that finishing record, Anaheim would still miss the postseason with a 99.2% likelihood. For comparison, if the Sharks finish their season going seven games above .500 they'll make the playoffs with nearly a 100% likelihood; if the Kings do so they'll make the playoffs with a 91.2% likelihood. And I don't really know how this Anaheim team would even generate that sort of turnaround -- there's not much to suggest this team is on the cusp of anything except another soul-shattering loss.
What's been frustrating about the losing is that Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry have been seemingly scoring at an exceptional rate -- both are riding 11-game scoring streaks (Getzlaf 2-17-19, Perry 9-7-16) that have them now among the NHL's top sixteen scorers (heck, Getzlaf leads the league in assists), but their offense hasn't led to many victories at all. Over their concurrent streaks, the Ducks have a 3-6-2 record, have dropped to 15th in the west, and part of the problem seems to be about when top-line offense decides to kick in. "Too Little, Too Late" seems an appropriate phrase:

Getzlaf and Perry have combined for 11 goals in the last 11 games, but 8 came when the Ducks were trailing.
Over the last 11 games, 60% of Getzlaf-Perry points and 72% of Getzlaf-Perry goals have come when the Ducks were already behind on the scoreboard. Of course, with the losing, the Ducks have been trailing more than they've been leading, but it's not nearly that stark a contrast -- over the past 11 games, the Ducks have spent 38% of the time trailing, 34% of the time tied, and 28% of the time leading. They've only been outscored 35-34 over that stretch, so underlying numbers aren't horrid, but the timing of offense sure sucks. Just enough to lose games.
For Getzlaf and Perry in particular, it seems that they don't really get into gear until after they've already cost the Ducks on the scoreboard; then usually comes a renewed effort to make up for earlier on-ice shittiness (to be fair, there's plenty of candidates for "who plays shitty when the score is tied", not just Getzlaf and Perry). The general rule seems to be that the Ducks' top line is very good in trailing situations, but Getzlaf and Perry aren't difference makers in situations when opponents have incentive to score goals.
I'm not against desperation offense, by any means -- it's "nice" that the Ducks do compete after falling behind. But that skill on its own has very little value; this season's a pretty good testament to that.
* * *
I'll be missing tonight's end-of-game comments -- I'm joining in on a Blackhawks podcast / radio show at 7 pm tonight with the guys from HOCKEE NIGHT to help them properly complain about Andrew Ebbett. If you're web-savvy enough, you may be able to listen in and submit chat comments live, but I'm not the go-to source on how that's done. [UPDATE, 6 pm -- just got an e-mail that tonight's puckcast has been called off for tonight.]
Prediction: Ducks fall behind, then Getzlaf and Perry extend their futile points streaks.
Go Ducks.
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First!!!
Charlie wants Corry Perry to drop by his crease after the game, if you catch my drift.
by yeah_eric on Nov 16, 2009 11:08 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Pro-activism, I like it!
Who knows? The Pens will play tonight without Kunitz, Gonchar, Goligoski, Orpik, and Letang (possibly more) — you may not need to unveil it until Thursday. Or at least until late in the third period tonight.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
you may not need to unveil it until Thursday. Or at least until late in the third period tonight.
Well, maybe I’ll have some time to pick something better. Or maybe I can look at the Ducks schedule and plan like 4-5 losses in advance. =P I still have faith deep down that they will figure it out and be a winning team. I’ve given up on the playoffs though.
OC Register Ducks Blog offers the expected roster tonight, key element bolded by me:
Bobby Ryan – Ryan Getzlaf – Corey Perry
Joffrey Lupul – Erik Christensen – Teemu Selanne
Mike Brown – Todd Marchant – Petteri Nokelainen
Evgeny Artyukhin – Kyle Calder – George Parros
Scott Niedermayer – Nick Boynton
Ryan Whitney – James Wisniewski
Brendan Mikkelson – Steve Eminger
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Also, Ducks are 4th so far in the Taylor Hall sweepstakes. Those eastern laggers had better start picking it up.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’m not against desperation offense, by any means — it’s “nice” that the Ducks do compete after falling behind.
Maybe this is a symptom of RC’s coaching style not fitting an offense built more to open it up.
Face it, his sytem works great for the all star defense he had (most the time) but maybe he does not green light these guys until after the game is behind.
Somthing is way wrong though. The goaltending is the latest position to crap the bed.
I was thinking that, too, that the Ducks need to just say, “Fuck it,” and let their top two lines go all-offense.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
I’m not sure they haven’t been doing this. While this phenomenal statistical analysis does point out that the Ducks offense only shows up after they are already down, I think this demonstrates the defensive struggles more than a lack of effort from the top lines. Obviously, finishing has been a problem for almost everybody, I’d like Getzlaf to spend some time with Lupul so he can learn to shoot from the defensive zone, but the goaltending and our uncanny ability to get pinned in our zone like we’re the villain at Wrestlemania. Until Hiller and Giguere stop giving up the random softy, and Wisniewski stops handing the puck over, we’re going to be on the wrong side of some high scoring affairs.
tee-hee
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 16, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions
You know what shifts are critical, Hayward? The ones that happened in the first five minutes of this game.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
fuck i know
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 16, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions
That title may have to go to Getzlaf until he gets ahead of Marchant in the goal column.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I should add — Marchant’s our highest goal-scoring centerman. Getzlaf, Koivu, Carter, Christensen all have two or less.
Very few people could have predicted that 19 games into the season.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Ducks really don’t even make it noticeable that the Penguins are missing four blueline regulars tonight. C’mon, PP — take advantage.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I guess I should hope that the Ducks come back and tie it, but I’d be wary if they did.
Last four times the Ducks have been in a tied game situation they’ve surrendered a go-ahead goal within an average of 1 minute 42 seconds.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Positivity? I suppose that I’ll have zero pressure on me on Saturday when I go to the San Jose game with a bunch of Sharks fans.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
yea thats the way im looking at it..getting drunk and expecting to lose..just be loose and have fun…but fuck we win..pretty much makes the season a sucess..get to see that look on planks face again..u cant buy memories like that
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 16, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
hey … I’m rather looking forward to this game … it will be my first away game … and spending the weekend with my niece … should be a blast … :)
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality? (boycott Hollywood!)
by ang6666 on Nov 16, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions
stop saying look out cook out alhlers NOW MOTHERFUCKER!! before i shoot you in the penis!!
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 16, 2009 5:55 PM PST reply actions
not far the pens get a simpson character on there blueline…reverend lovejoy….i tihnk barney would be a could 4th liner..or that mcfluer guy…could be crafty winger
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 16, 2009 5:57 PM PST reply actions
UPDATE: No puckcast tonight
In case anybody was thinking of skipping over to that. Got an e-mail that because of a family emergency, they’re calling off tonight’s podcast.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
That seemed like it was going to be the highlight of the night. bummer
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Nah, now the highlight of the night will have to be my text to Spade when Getzlaf made his eighth mistake of the first period:
Team Canada is fucked.
It’ll be interesting to see if he costs that team wins, too.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Well that is far from Getzlafs mind right now…
“I wish I could think about that stuff right now but I can’t,” Getzlaf said. “That stuff is so far from my game right now. We’re just trying to win hockey games. My mindset is obviously 100 percent here.”
I don’t know where “here” is though.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Oh no — he and Perry (if he makes the team) and whoever else will be brilliant en route to gold. Which will make it that much more maddening for us.
I’d say that at this point I’d take Perry over Getzlaf for that roster by a wide margin. He’s doing things with more purpose.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Latest rumor is that the puckcast will be re-scheduled for tonight, but I’ll post an actual update once I get official word.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
cant wait to here how your voice sounds when/if you mention the ducks…that will be a classic sound bite
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 7:09 AM PST up reply actions
OK, podcast is definitely on tonight, I believe at 7 pm. Follow the left sidebar at HOCKEE NIGHT to figure out how to listen and IM, or I’ll get a link later to the recording.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
You know what would be fucking great…it would be a long shot, but it would be great…if the Ducks found a way out of this hole while Getzlaf is resting being completely useless in the box.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Also it’d be fucking great if Giguere could get a win this season before Christmas.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Seriously, what is worse? Hiller, who has wins, but hasn’t been great…
or Jiggy…doesn’t have a damn win, and hasn’t really been any better…
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
I can’t really fault either goalie — team is terrible and it’s reflecting on both of them.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
oh, for sure…
but at least with Hiller it kinda feels like there is a chance.
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
It’s true — Hiller does have the 40-save shutout. But it’s a shame that’s even necessary.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
You know Hayward, I’d buy the “fatigue” excuse more if there was some time you could point to when this team was not fatigued and thus playing well. Their shortcomings extend well beyond tiredness.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
ahhh, fatigued. Of course. This exhausting 4 game road trip is the problem. They knew it was coming during the 10+ games beforehand…they’ve been pacing themselves! Shoulda known!
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
So comforting to know that a defense missing four regulars can hold the Ducks to 19 shots so far — will Baldy get his stupid assist if nobody shoots?
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Just think, if our PP didn’t suck serious ass…it would be 2-2
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Shut the fuck up, Hayward. The goddamn whistle is the least important facet of this game.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
The power play on this road trip — 2 GF, 2 GA.
Just mind-boggling how bad this team is. SB Nation had its power rankings poll today, where bloggers can rank teams for their own conference. I’ve never participated in it (I detest the act of voting), but I did log in to put a “16” next to the Ducks.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
HAHAHA!
I told my co-worker today that they were in 15th in the Western Conference…she said…
What happens if they fall below that?
I had to hold back tears as I told her thats rock bottom…
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
ignorance is great isnt it…i want to be your co-worker
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 6:24 AM PST up reply actions
My friend just informed me that waiting to see who gets traded is the exciting part.
Thank god…I’ve been waiting for this season to get exciting!
GO DUCKS!!!
DUCKSandPUCKS.com
SKeleven on Twitter
Really — something’s gotta happen, it’s just “what?” and “when?”
Hopefully firing Hayward is atop the to-do list.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Not really. I wouldn’t mind a new (actual) logo, though, as long as they’re cleaning house.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
how bout dropping achohol prices..seem to work for the angels when moreno came in…i mean how does samueli expect anyone to watch this debacle not piss drunk
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 6:22 AM PST up reply actions
I’d like a promotion like that — if the team shits the bed in the first period (falls behind by two or more goals), then players pay for fan drinks in the second and third period, until the score is re-tied.
Empty seats would disappear fast, I think.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
id be there more often if this was the case…
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 7:09 AM PST up reply actions
It’s not the highest on my concerns these days, but yeah, it among many things looks bad.
I’m not sure this team would be much better with Kunitz on it, though — it’s Pronger that’s sorely missed.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
agree kunitz would not make any difference right now…..the lack of pronger..hence lack of a D is really whats killing us…oh and stupid turnovers..and…um a lot of shit really
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 6:24 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, the list of problems really is too long. And now we’ve just added Kyle Calder to it.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
yea funny how on the radio pre-game they were trying “pump” him up so to the speak..him being in the lineup
they interviewed him (gave the most basic answers..i correctly knew all his answers to the questions) and and had RC talk about him…RC was fighting to say anything positive…“um yea he didnt stand out in training camp..but uh now he has a second chance”
im like wow…this has “not working out” written all over it
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 7:08 AM PST up reply actions
Well, everything so far has been "tinkering", shuffling in and out of third- and fourth-line players and depth defensemen.
Ebbett, Christensen, Sbisa, Boynton, Mikkelson, and now Calder have been experimented with, but this team’s past the tinkering stages now. We’ll see what happens, but this sort of record demands something major to be done. We shall see what big chips Barstool Bob is willing to play with.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
SAPF
….I really preffered the tough guy team to this secondary scoring line bullshit.
:Sigh: Here is my cheer up video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95fNgx8aCS8
This is a stand up act from a comedian named Louis CK. I think he’s got some of the best stand up acts out there right now. Guy is fucking hilarious. He wrote the movie Pootytang. It’s one of those things that I watched and thought to myself “This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen” but laughed my ass off throughout the entire thing and quoted several times. He had a show on Showtime (I think?) called Life With Louis that was amazing.
BTW, my coworker said this “To offensive.” I figured that was an indicator that it would fit in perfectly at BOC. =P
fit like a glove or probally sized condom
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 8:13 AM PST up reply actions
It works again — you’re an expert in cheer-me-up. This guy is hilarious — been clicking vid to vid for a few laughs.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
If you look up his skit called Why, it’s like 10 minutes long and the entire thing is genius. Yeah, I pull up a video every time they lose and it always seems to cheer me up as well.
Pfft, this guy isn’t nearly as funny as Jeff Dunham.
I’ve only seen the Akmed the Dead Terrorist routine. I thought it was pretty funny. Havn’t watched his show yet.
I think I hate Jeff Dunham more than I hate Corey Perry. I don’t know, it’s a toss up.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
I caught the skit of him in the barber shop. Why is it not racist for him to do a character with a Blaxploitation voice? Is it because he does it through a puppet?
And feel free to sound like Giamatti from Private Parts when you explain this to me. "you’ve got to learn to do what Imus does. See, he doesn’t actually say the bad thing himself. He says it through a character.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Nov 17, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions
Good to know (Addendum)
Gabe at Behind The Net has taken a shot at Sports Club Stats’ methodology today, particularly for early-in-the-year predictions, and there’s some discussion as to improving the model in the comments. So don’t hold them to the 6.8% playoff likelihood that they’re projecting for the Ducks today using the “weighted method”. This early in the year, the 20.6% likelihood using the “50/50 method” may in fact be more accurate.
So, Ducks are still screwed, but this post overstates to what degree.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
So, Ducks are still screwed, but this post overstates to what degree.
At this point I would just settle for having the ability to watch an entertaining game.
amen…the detriot game kinda quailified
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 17, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
Kinda of if you remove the two (not one but two) horrible goals Jonas let in to thwart the Ducks comeback attempt.
It blows.
There is some dratistic changes coming in the form of player trades, OR coaching.
At this point maybe both. And if the past is a good predictor (Andy Mac comes to mind) we will not like the changes.
Kinda tough to peg Andy McDonald’s move as a performance trade. He was more of a salary casualty to get Niedermayer back on the books.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Nov 17, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
though I do feel there were performance issues behind the scenes, but I don’t think Burke would have moved him if Nieds and Selanne stayed retired
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Nov 17, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions
And anyways, it’s tough to blame Andy McDonald for not magically converting Mark Mowers into Teemu Selanne v2.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
ahhh you said mark mowers!!!!!
i almost spit up my coffee
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 18, 2009 6:03 AM PST up reply actions
You’re right. Quite irresponsible of me to throw that name without warning.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
other names that shall not be named without some sort of 40 lash consequence:
pavel trnka
shane hnidy(although earl u disagree cuz u got some kinda man chrush on him)
kyle calder (yup he makes the list already)
anatoli semenov (guy was a bust)
chad kilger
sean pronger
anti aalto (i have his autograph on stick)
joeseph mara (he sucked)
jeff freisen (of course)
german titov
doug weight
doing my little research on ducks to forget i found out we had a mike brown in 02-03…
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 18, 2009 7:27 AM PST up reply actions
you forgot Shampoo
I don’t even remeber his real name just that dumb ass knickname, oh and that he actually killed a little girl with his slap shot and forced the NHL to add nets to the ends of the ice above the glass (which is too late, but good I guess)
Espen Knutsen?
thought u meant j.f. jompe hehe…great name
Ducks blow old goats right now but....GO DUCKS!!! for shits and giggles!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Nov 18, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions

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