Getting Graphy: the Sharks and the 51-game Sniff Test

by Earl Sleek on Feb 11, 2009 12:03 PM PST

I threw some graphs together today just to compare the results of the first 51 games of this year's Sharks team to the two previous cup-winners. There's really nothing too much to point out, except that I only included regulation results -- anything that happened after the 60-minute mark was flat-out ignored.

Right now the Sharks have outpaced both the 06-07 Ducks and the 07-08 Red Wings in terms of regulation standings points earned. I think it's worth noting that both the previous cup-winners had midseason slumps that largely had to do with multiple injuries: the Ducks had only two wins in an eleven-game stretch starting in game 40 (essentially where the Sharks pull ahead of their pace), and the Red Wings had only one win in an eleven-game stretch starting in game 56 (not on this graph). Will the Sharks avoid that sort of multi-injury stretch this season, or will they try to copy the pattern (or worst yet, will they save their slump for the postseason)?

In terms of goal differential through regulation, the Sharks did pace these three teams through games 20-30, but a certain 6-0 loss to this year's Wings pushed them back behind the curve. Still, they've been keeping pace nicely with the comparison Cup winners. Again, you can see the point where the injured Ducks fell off for eleven games.

At any rate, I thought it was a somewhat interesting comparison (and I definitely trust regulation hockey more as a barometer for postseason success than OT or SO). We're getting near the point where sniff tests won't matter much, though. Outpacing previous cup winners is nice; winning a cup is something else entirely. Should be even more interesting to see where this Sharks team ends up this spring, and whether they get to be included in next season's sniff tests.

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Nice post Sleek

Will the Sharks avoid that sort of multi-injury stretch this season, or will they try to copy the pattern (or worst yet, will they save their slump for the postseason)?

It’s probably not as big as the injuries dealt to the other teams, but Lukowich, Mitchell, and JR have been really battling some injuries this season. Luko is probably the most underrated blueliner on our team, and really allows Boyle to take some chances in the offensive zone. Mitchell is a PK artist (which frankly leaves him the odd man out considering our PK has been wonderful this year with Patty and Michalek really stepping up). JR may not chip in a lot, but a majority of his goals came in the third period.

Outpacing previous cup winners is nice; winning a cup is something else entirely.

Tell me about it :(

Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated

by Mr. Plank on Feb 11, 2009 2:41 PM PST reply actions

It’s probably not as big as the injuries dealt to the other teams, but Lukowich, Mitchell, and JR have been really battling some injuries this season.

And don’t forget Nabby’s early-season injury also.

Still, I think the issue is concurrency of injuries. During the Ducks’ eleven-game slump, they were playing without notables Giguere, Bryzgalov, Pronger, Beauchemin, and Marchant. I forget Detroit’s slate of missing players, but I believe it was multiple key players as well.

JR may not chip in a lot, but a majority of his goals came in the third period.

Plus he seems to know everybody’s name. :)

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Feb 11, 2009 2:53 PM PST up reply actions

I forget Detroit’s slate of missing players, but I believe it was multiple key players as well.

Didn’t they have their top four D-men out? I remember Lidstrom was on the skid for awhile, and for some reason remember those injuries being the reason Stuart headed over to Detroit…..

Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated

by Mr. Plank on Feb 11, 2009 4:40 PM PST reply actions

That sounds right — in either case, they were definitely excusable stretches, which is why I love spreadsheets — easy enough to exclude or segment certain games that just aren’t reflective of the team’s ability at all.

And especially with the 06-07 Ducks and the 07-08 Wings, it seems the right thing to do — they both proved that they weren’t those teams that struggled for eleven games.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Feb 11, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions

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Pacific Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
San Jose Fear The Fin	54	31	17	6	68
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	57	27	19	11	65
Phoenix Five For Howling	57	27	21	9	63
Dallas Defending Big D	56	28	25	3	59
Anaheim Anaheim Calling	56	23	24	9	55