Ducks Gameday—Calculating the final eleven games

by Earl Sleek on Mar 22, 2009 12:13 PM PDT

Phoenix Coyotes (whatever) at Anaheim Ducks (whatever)
Get Coyotified at Five for Howling

Well, with eleven games left I decided to run a quick set of scenarios about how the Ducks might finish out their 08-09 season. I really don't know how many points they'd need to qualify (Mirtle says 16), but here's a look at how many they might get.

The first set of tables below breaks down how the Ducks have done against each remaining opponent in the regular season, both since the lockout and just for this 08-09 season. In both projections, the Ducks figure to get about 13 points from their remaining 11 games.

The second set of tables factors the Home/Road indicator into the projections -- how well has Anaheim done against each opponent when considering where the game will be played? That's a little more stark -- 10 to 12 points seems to be the indication there.

Click image to enlarge

Of course, the Ducks are about as predictable as monkeys these days -- they seemingly exist to defy expectation, and certainly are a different team than they've been most of the post-lockout era, but it still shows some notable trends. First off, the Ducks have yet to take any standings points this season in Nashville, Vancouver, or San Jose, or when hosting Edmonton or Dallas. That's no good. Secondly, all the scenarios suggest that the Ducks need a win tonight, and generally Anaheim will need to continue playing above expectation if they want to see a game 83 this year.

The Ducks have won two games in a row. The last time the Ducks won three games in a row was November 2008. On the other hand, the Ducks have given their last seven opponents at least one standings point. The last time the Ducks surrendered standings points to eight straight opponents was November 2005.

Prediction: I won't be around for the start of the game, but I'll join in somewhere in the middle. Ducks lose 3-2 and blow my spreadsheet to bits. Goals by Pahlsson (the real one somehow) and Rob Niedermayer.

Go Ducks.

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Thank you Earl...

…for not hauling out the Eastern Conference standings as well.

I may yet sleep tonight.

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by Donny Rivette on Mar 22, 2009 1:22 PM PDT reply actions

Who will we see tonight? The Ducks that play well enough for me to say “Where did that come from?” or the Ducks that play poorly enough for me to say “Where did that come from?”. I guess we’ll see.

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 22, 2009 5:36 PM PDT reply actions

Wait

Why, for the first table, is every team listed twice?

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 22, 2009 5:46 PM PDT reply actions

keep your elbows off the table, young man..

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 22, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Why, for the first table, is every team listed twice?

It’s just a game-by-game listing of the rest of the Ducks’ season, where the Ducks play a couple of teams twice. Any team listed twice means we play them twice more before the season is through.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 22, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions

The first table is the totals of both home and away games.
The bottom table differentiates between the two : H = home , R = road (away).

DUH!

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 22, 2009 6:24 PM PDT reply actions

watch me be wrong. That would be embarrassing.

and no offence to you brokenyard, just messing around.

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 22, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah but for example, look at PHX at the top and PHX at the bottom, they’re exactly the same. I’m asking why it was put in twice. If it’s a total, shouldn’t it just be in there once?

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 22, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh wait, I’m dumb. It’s because we’re playing them twice in the remainder of the season. stupid, stupid.

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 22, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Good game Ducks!
I feel safer with Hiller in net. Anyone else feel this way?

good to see Getzlaf again.

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 22, 2009 7:34 PM PDT reply actions

I feel plenty safe with Hiller in the nets — count me in.

I didn’t make it in time to see any of this game, but hey, if it means they win, I can be less available.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 22, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions

You’re not the only one.

I find myself saying this during games alot…“if that was Jiggy, it would have been a goal…”

UGH, I hate that, but it’s the truth.

Double thrilled to see Getzlaf…FINALLY. It’s been a long while…lets hope it continues!

GO DUCKS!! Girlwithapuck.blogspot.com

by SK eleven on Mar 22, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions

You guys should stop watching Ducks games, and watch bears instead. Polar bears are the best bears, but bears in general are pretty cool.

by IAmJoe on Mar 22, 2009 11:53 PM PDT reply actions

Yea, but can they do a Flying V?

Thats what I thought.
Pussy ass bears.

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 23, 2009 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions

I’m not going to debate the coolness of bears, but I tell you — they got nothing on insects, particularly ants.

Those animals are nuts.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 23, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions

you just got done watching “Bugs Life”, didn’t you? Or wait, there was a movie called “Ants”. Where they fall in love and think for themselves. There not so tough, pussy ass bears and ants.

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 23, 2009 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Watch some nature programs on ants, like “Ant Wars”. Ants kill everything with ruthless determination. And they’re bastards — they’ll eat a crab from the inside out.

The only reason why they don’t kill more bears is a lack of motivation. Crazy aliens.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 23, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions

oh, now I get it. Kinda like illegal aliens.

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 23, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions

“shake and bake”
Ricky Bobby’s assist brings him to 46 pts. this season. An all time high for an Anaheim rookie. In a lot less games too, I might add.

I’m gonna drink 10 beers for him today. congradulations!

hooked on quack

by tu madre on Mar 23, 2009 7:52 AM PDT reply actions

A question I've asked gets some treatment from the OC Register

Should Ducks retire Paul Kariya’s No. 9?

Nice to see there are some other Ducks fans with some sense of perspective on the issue.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 23, 2009 9:11 AM PDT reply actions

No. Kariya’s still playing.

Picture this: #9 is retired. Then by some wacky series of events, Kariya comes back to the Ducks. Now he can’t wear his old number because it’s been retired in his honor.

It should be retired 9 years after Kariya does.

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 23, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I don’t know if that’s a deal breaker. Mario Lemieux’s number kept coming up and down from the rafters, and I think most people got over the confusion rather easily.

And anyways, I don’t know if the question is “should PK’s number be retired today?” but rather “should it be retired ever?”

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 23, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh. Well first I was mostly joking, and second, in that case yes definitely. You made a great argument for it a little while ago.

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 23, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Puck Daddy believes even more than I do

Six reasons why the Anaheim Ducks will make the playoffs

I’m still skeptical, of course — the 3 game winning streak is probably an illusion, the homestand wasn’t anything special, the string of one-goal games was nice but we’ve seen more than our share of one-goal losses, and basically I’ve seen too much of this team shitting itself it’s tough to imagine that it’s miraculously fixed itself.

We shall see.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Mar 23, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions

I saw this too. Ironically, I think it’s more of an evaluation of what they did LAST NIGHT in particular…and not necessarily what they have been doing these past few weeks.

Who knows…I’ll believe it when I see it.

GO DUCKS!! Girlwithapuck.blogspot.com

by SK eleven on Mar 23, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Funnily enough, today SportsClubStats says if we go 1-0-9 in the last 10 games, there is a 100% chance of us finishing 12th in the West. But if we go 2-0-8 there is a 62% chance we will make the playoffs.

Nobody cares about your opinion.

by brokenyard on Mar 23, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions

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Pacific Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
San Jose Fear The Fin	54	31	17	6	68
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	57	27	19	11	65
Phoenix Five For Howling	57	27	21	9	63
Dallas Defending Big D	56	28	25	3	59
Anaheim Anaheim Calling	56	23	24	9	55