Ducks Gameday—Ten games to go, an intriguing opportunity
by Earl Sleek on Mar 24, 2009 7:31 AM PDT
63 comments
Anaheim Ducks (whatever) at Nashville Predators (whatever)
Enemy views at On the Forecheck
I really don't know how it happened -- a little more than a week ago, after the Ducks lost to the Sharks, I gave the season up for dead. And even though the team's problems don't seem remarkably fixed even in the past week, here they sit -- one point out of eighth with ten games to play.
In this metaphor, Positivity is a pesky dog starving for approval.
But I'm not on the positivity bandwagon just yet -- it's already backstabbed me a few times this season, and I've rather enjoyed this past week where all I stressed about was Galactica (Starbuck WTF?). So even as the Ducks have the opportunity tonight to leapfrog the Predators into eighth, I'm taking it all with a huge grain of salt. Namely, that this Ducks team hasn't shown itself capable of consistent winning, not in a long while.
That's not to say that they can't pull it off this time (and that would be welcome), just that even recently, results seemingly have been mediocre as ever. More after the jump.
In some cases (such as the 2005-06 or 2007-08 Ducks teams), a team towards the end of the season can be playing better than its record -- that is to say a team could have "turned it on" and played stellar hockey over its recent 20 or 10 games. I don't see that in the numbers for this Ducks squad, though. Take a look at the 15 teams in the west and how they've each fared over the past 20 games:
HG = Home Games
Looking back at the last 20 games, it's not like the Ducks have been anything special. They've had a pretty good power play but have been generally outscored -- not much to suggest that their current position is in any way misleading or that they're much different than they were over the first 50 or so games. Similarly, here's the same table only looking back 10 games:
HG = Home Games
With the more recent cut, the ten-game lookback shows a slightly better ranking in the west, but still nothing very flattering, especially considering that only a couple western teams played a majority of their last ten games at home.
So it seems that this recent surge back towards contention, and generally this entire season, has been the result of repeatedly staying mediocre, Perhaps the Ducks have truly turned a corner in the past week, and perhaps we'll see that the team can turn it on when it really really really counts and shed the shackles of mediocrity, and truly I have nothing against that happening -- my point is really that it's not necessarily indicated by their recent play.
One specific area that could use some improvement? In the seven games since the trade deadline, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Cristensen have been surrendering even-strength goals at twice the rate that Todd Marchant, Petteri Nokelainen, and Mike Brown have been surrendering goals while shorthanded. The Ducks seemingly would find some easier success if they could stem some of the GA-bleeding from the top line.
Prediction: Ducks lose 4-1. Goal scored by Positivity the pesky dog.
Go Ducks.
0 recs |
63 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
i agree
not jumping on the bandwagon either yet….ive seen this movie before
but alas x-files movie name (see below)
just want the ducks to get in…so i have more excuses to drink more during the week
i smell a huge let down today…i smell a 3-2 ducks loss…
ok a little small positivy….the power play acutally looks like they have a plan out there….i thought i d never see the day
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 24, 2009 8:02 AM PDT reply actions
i smell a huge let down today…i smell a 3-2 ducks loss…
Could be, but it’s not really today’s game that terrifies the part of me that wants to believe — rather it’s tomorrow’s game against the 15th-place Avalanche. The Ducks this year have been pretty rotten at taking points that they are favored to take.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
damn it now i cant get the x-files theme music out of my head….!! i work 10 hour days…its gonna be a long day
your right about the lanche…the duck will make them look like the red wings…..damn i miss the ass kicking…“know your gonna in most nites” of the cup year….fuuck
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 24, 2009 8:35 AM PDT reply actions
Anyone else catch the Puck Daddy “6 Reasons Why the Ducks WILL Make the Playoffs?” Weird to see a Devils fan shine a good light on us…
Yeah, here’s the link again, if anyone missed it.
None of his reasons are terribly faulty, but Wyshynski hasn’t been burned by this team and I’m sure there’s six equally valid reasons why they’ll miss this spring as well. It’s a crapshoot, but one of the possibilities has to come true — so it’s not a bad guess I suppose.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
sleeks name on yahoo…..the sleek legend grows…next up espn.com
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 24, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
the sleek legend grows…
Yeah, though I guess I should tell you guys (I’ll bring it up in a later post, too), but I was also fired from Fanhouse last week. There was a lot of nice language about changing focus, but between the lines I could totally detect the message, “That’s what you get for not posting a cartoon in two months.”
I can’t say I’m upset about it — it was always tough for me to find a niche there among the breaking news and I’m in no pressing need for extra income (plus I have a mean lazy streak) — besides, I think it bodes well for the return of silly cartoons to my BoC posts, which definitely have fallen off lately.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
that sucks
but more Sleek-toons here would be an awesome bonus. That’s a plus, right?
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com
Exactly — if I weren’t dead-set against the notion right now, I’d even say “positivity”.
Here, btw, is the nice way of saying “2 months between posts is unacceptable”:
At the present time, the decision has been made to build out FanHouse’s editorial approach and hire additional professional sportswriters. Our goal is to boost the breadth of the editorial content on the site by allowing a team of dedicated, reputable bloggers to work side-by-side with experienced sportswriters. We think this will be a great mix of blog content, news, features and interviews. In making this decision to hire more writers, however, it is necessary for us to make some changes to our budget. So at this time we are cutting back on the total number of bloggers we have on our roster, meaning, unfortunately, that we will be terminating your blogging contract with FanHouse, effective immediately.
Lawyericious! They lost me at “reputable”.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
“your fired cuz you werent cutting it biatch”….would have been more humane…i think this long trying to look educated response is more a slap in the face
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 24, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
And that was actually just an excerpt from a longer e-mail that I shortened for the comments.
Whether it’s in creating posts or firing writers, AOL loves its procedural baggage.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
i wonder when they fire the guy who wrote that epic “firing letter” if they send him the same email…tee-hee
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 24, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
they sure went thru alot of explanation just to say your services are no longer required
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
by ang6666 on Mar 24, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I did have to laugh while reading it, because it seems like he went through painstaking efforts to not point out the obvious reason (no posts in two months) and instead went on some weird discussion of mission statements and budgets that really don’t deal with me in the slightest.
Oh well. if you want my honest assessment of AOL + FH and their priorities, here it is: they found out a year ago that bloggers are cheaper to utilize than professional sportswriters, so they fired their sports departments, grabbed a big set of bloggers, and tried to turn them into pseudo-professionals. Some take to that easier than others, but for a guy like me (who frankly just followed Mirtle to FH just like SBN), I don’t think I’ll ever feel comfortable writing about hockey as anything but a fan. With all the ignorances and poor grammar I can muster.
So I think it’s for the best, no matter what jibberish rationale they want to throw at me. To be honest, I thought that I was going to quit FH in January after I “used” their AOL-pull to get credentialed to the Winter Classic. But then I didn’t end up going, they wouldn’t have credentialed me anyways, and somehow the whole “I quit you suckers!” masterplan got waylaid.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
it seems like he went through painstaking efforts
Are you sure it wasn’t a generic “we’re letting you go” letter?
Nobody cares about your opinion.
Hmm, could be. He did mention “PuckToons” in the e-mail, but it was in such a way that it totally could be an insert.
“________” was a tremendous and unique success for FanHouse, and your contributions to the group discussions in the Google Group were extremely valuable as well.
I’ve been cookie-cuttered!
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I hope that cutter at least makes tasty cookies..
Hey, you still want a G-pen nib? You’ll have to get your own holder for it but I can see about sending one down to you when FTF invades the Pond.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com
Sure, I’m game, if it’s cheap. It’ll definitely get misused under my disreputable watch, though.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I'll spot you the nib
this time. You should be able to buy new nibs at Kinokuniya in Costa Mesa, assuming it’s still there. The holder and ink you can probably get at Aaron Brothers or any art supply store. (art supply warehouse in Westminster is awesome) If I still had some Higgins kicking around I’d give it to you, but alas, it was free-cycled a few months back.
Who knows, it might inspire a Sleek revolution.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com
im not too enthralled with there hockey section..no one there seems to but much effort in…the football section though…..is really good…got some funny dudes…over there..and there constantly updated….so for whats its worth your not leaving much…
still i did tell u…like 2 weeks ago…“what happened to those fanhouse cartoons”….tried to help u mang!!!
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 24, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions
Yeah, to tell you the truth, I haven’t read a Fanhouse hockey post this year, I don’t think. I might miss the behind-the-scenes e-mails, though — that was at least a source for “breaking” news notifications.
But yeah, I didn’t feel comfortable writing there — it was more tabloid than fan blog, in a lot of ways.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’m not in complete agreement with this post. For one, I think the Ducks have been very good since the trade deadline. Their record doesn’t indicate it but look at the losses:
2-3 OTL to Chicago
3-2 loss to Dallas
3-2 loss to Minnesota
1-0 loss to San Jose
They’re all 1 point games, and all games the Ducks were very much in. Ducks outshot the Stars something like 36-16 in that game, I believe it was a similar number in the Minnesota game. Similarly, the San Jose game was deadlocked until a random bouncing fluke snuck past Hiller.
Sure, SOGs aren’t what determine a game and the Ducks forwards need to start putting pucks away a bit better (like in the Coyotes game), but one could argue that the Ducks had a very very very good chance at winning each one of those games.
The trade deadline guys have fit in really nicely, and it’s exciting to finally see Bobby on the top line with Getz and Perry. If Hiller remains solid (he should definitely be the starter from here on out), and they keep playing like they have been, there’s no way they’ll miss the playoffs.
P.S. after a cold streak the Power Play is 7-12 in its last 3 games…yikes!
Nice spark of positivity!
Unfortunately, 1 goal losses and playing better than normal don’t get you points and definitely don’t get you the playoffs which is why I’m still skeptical myself.
It’s sad that we’re all looking at LOSSES as positive grounds to build on. Shame on the Ducks.
GO DUCKS!! DUCKSandPUCKS.com
It’s sad that we’re all looking at LOSSES as positive grounds to build on. Shame on the Ducks.
Well, statistically the manner and margin that a team wins and loses their games (goal differential) does matter in how they’re likely to do in the future. But yes — even a respectably close regulation loss in the next couple of weeks won’t be helping Anaheim into the postseason.
As I told Spade at the Sharks game a week+ ago, “There are no more moral victories this season.”
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah, but there’s an easy counterargument too. Sure, they haven’t been lopsided losses, but generally the Ducks haven’t had many very impressive wins, either. Lots of blown leads (4 in the last 3 games, including two late in the third period) and heck, they just had a five-game homestand where every visitor got at least a standings point.
And just because they play close games with “a very very very good chance at winning each one of those games”, let’s not forget that this has been a pattern all year also. Remember when the Ducks lost six 4-3 regulation games in a twelve-game span? Coming close a lot sometimes is an indication that you’re on the verge of something better; with this year’s Ducks it seemingly is an indication that Anaheim has a remarkable ability to lose close games with alarming regularity.
Definitely it’s not all bad news — it is still one point out of eighth, and nobody’s bound to their past results. Still, the fact that the Ducks were able to build on a lead once in three tries against Phoenix doesn’t mean that they’ve arrived.
P.S. the power play is weird. On the one hand, 8 PPGs in the last 10 games. On the other, they’ve only managed to score on their PP in three of those games — seven times the Ducks have come up empty.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Earl, what are the percentages for your first line the last 10 games or so? From what I can tell Perry/Getzlaf outshoot the bad guys pretty regularly. Are they not finishing, getting bad goaltending…?
Actually, I can’t properly tell you that. I’ve never been a tremendous believer in Corsi, especially over a shorter term. But here’s the numbers I’m referencing in this statement:
In the seven games since the trade deadline, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Cristensen have been surrendering even-strength goals at twice the rate that Todd Marchant, Petteri Nokelainen, and Mike Brown have been surrendering goals while shorthanded.
Last seven games:
Getzlaf at even: +5, -8, in 104.8 minutes = +2.86 GF/hr, -4.58 GA/hr
Perry at even: +6, -8, in 103.5 minutes = +3.48 GF/hr, -4.64 GA/hr
Christensen at even: +3, -6, in 73.3 minutes = +2.46 GF/hr, -4.91 GA/hr
I suspect a lot of this comes from a shaky handle on the concept of backchecking.
Last seven games:
Marchant shorthanded: +1, -1, in 28.4 minutes = +2.11 GF/hr, -2.11 GA/hr
Nokelainen shorthanded: +0, -1, in 25.3 minutes = +0.00 GF/hr, -2.37 GA/hr
M. Brown shorthanded: +1, -0, in 20.5 minutes = +2.93 GF/hr, -0.00 GA/hr
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Here's what I was talking about...
…the percentages. The SV% with Getzlaf on the ice the last 7 games has been .822! For Perry….833. And the SH% for the Ducks with those guys on the ice has been 7 and 8.3% respectively. Those are TERRIBLE rates and it makes me think your big guns have been getting the bad bounces recently (unles they’ve been shooting the puck into their own net).
Ah, I get what you’re saying now. That is pretty compelling.
You know, at some point I am going to have to get over my fear of Corsi and at least put together a rationalization of why I consistenly ignore shot totals and Corsi-style derivations thereof. In a short answer, my simple reason is that if I knew that shots in a game were 35-25, I still really wouldn’t have any idea who won or why.
Getzlaf & pals may be “unlucky”, in some ways, but that’s not to say that they’re not defensively negligent also, and that shots against them may be more likely to score than your “average shot” (more odd-man rushes and the like). I guess I’m just not comfortable with the notion that every shot matters “the same” when I watch lots of hockey and know that’s certainly not the case. Some shots will almost never go in, some shots will almost never get stopped, and some dude named Corsi is hoping that these polarized chances somehow even out. It may, more or less, but I really can’t be sure enough to hang my own hat on Corsi stuff… make any sense?
http://www.battleofcali.com/
And also: I’d like to continue berating Getzlaf without having to qualify it with “Get luckier, stupid!”.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I think you’re misrepresenting corsi here Earl, but you’d have to talk to Vic or JLikens to get a real explanation why. Here’s my short version:
Corsi is a proxy of offensive zone possession. It expresses who is driving (and keeping) the puck in the right direction while they are on the ice: it doesn’t necessarily say anything about the quality of the scoring chances. The reason it’s somewhat useful as a gauge of a player’s ability is “power” since the sample size of shots directed at the net (shots, missed shots, blocked shots) at both ends is relatively large and it isn’t as skewed by randomness. I think it’s also a safe assumption when it comes to players like Perry and Getzlaf that, if they consistently outshoot their opponents, they are probably outchancing them as well.
In addition, MC and Vic have all done some fairly convincing posts this year showing that SV% behind players is strongly influenced by natural variation (ie: randomness) to the degree that individuals can only be seen as having a very small influence on the SV% behind them over the long term (and almost none in the short term).
Oh, offensive zone possession? Well then I can dig it.
So long as I still get to yell at Getzlaf for making his few opportunities against count more than his many opportunities for.
And say what you will, but if you’re in the habit of giving up breakaways and odd man rushes, that will affect your SV%, short or long term.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Whoa.
..
..
..
..
What the hell is Fenwick and Corsi?
All I can gather is that the Corsi were an ancient people from the island of Sardinia and of which the island of Corsica is named after. Am I close?
Nobody cares about your opinion.
Hooray!
One period in, and we’re not trailing! I wish some website would update our playoff odds mid-game :)
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Not that important
But Hayward referred to Brad Staubitz (the Sharks fighter) as “Rob” Staubitz — I think he’s thinking of former Kings goalie Rob Stauber, a key member of my SNES NHL 94 team.
Ah, inadvertent memories…
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Dumb Ducks
Well, the game’s tied now, and I’m still waiting for the first Anaheim completed pass of the period.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Not to mention, it’s followed by the worst defensive play I think I’ve ever seen. God damn that OT scoring chance for the Predators… we got so lucky there. Yikes.
Nobody cares about your opinion.
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKLDJFLSFDJSDFJJS:DL FSSOFJSKdfjkxcvmcnvmxnv ckhvxcvfcvcvcvddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddwd
Nobody cares about your opinion.
That’s pretty much the noise I made upon Giguere’s final save in the Shootout.
Nobody cares about your opinion.
Earl
I know you’re just going to talk about how they played badly in the third period and overtime and that you still don’t like our chances to make the playoffs because we probably should have lost…
..but may I just say: there’s no more room for moral losses.
Nobody cares about your opinion.
..but may I just say: there’s no more room for moral losses.
True, true. Sorry I had to run there, but I’m not trying to be negative for its own sake — it’s actually a bit of a strategy.
You see, four games ago now I started predicting losses instead of wins, and it’s flawless!
Until tomorrow, at least.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Battle of California
Related FanShots on Battle of California
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Pacific Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Jose
|
82 | 51 | 20 | 11 | 113 |
|
Phoenix
|
82 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 107 |
|
Los Angeles
|
82 | 46 | 27 | 9 | 101 |
|
Anaheim
|
82 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 89 |
|
Dallas
|
82 | 37 | 31 | 14 | 88 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 6:21 AM PDT)
4 years old and counting!
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Trending Topics: Odd arbitration decisions; more NHLers Tweeting
- Ovechkin wins fifth Kharlamov Trophy, talks Talbot
- Puck Headlines: Witt hits waivers; Kovalchuk grievance details set
- Jersey Fouls: Sharks get creatively awful; hockey movie pass/fail
- White, Flames agree to one-year deal; Bruins sign Wheeler
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
