Ducks Gameday—Eight games to go, unfortunately
by Earl Sleek on Mar 27, 2009 8:05 AM PDT
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PrintEdmonton Oilers (bubble) at Anaheim Ducks (bubble)
Unbelievably, SBN has no Oilers blog. That seems ironic because when I started blogging, the hockey blogosphere was 92% Oilers-based. Go see Tyler, I guess.
This is why the NHL needs to switch to a 74-game season. Immediately.
Numbers lifted straight from the pages of TSN.ca
Why can't the league just call off the rest of the regular season and skip right now to this blog's wet dream holy vision noble purpose of a postseason Battle of California? Why offer these teams the opportunity to blow it, like they did last year, and the year before that, and the year before that?
The Ducks sit with a truly thin margin on the five-team bubble, which at least offers the assurance that if everyone ended with the same last-eight record, they'd hold 7th. In order to get passed, Anaheim needs to be outperformed. A quick look at the bubble's final-eight game schedules after the break.
Here's a table that shows the final eight games for the five teams in question:
Let the handicapping begin!
At the bottom, I've identified how many Home or Road games remain, how many Back to Back games remain (note: tonight's EDM-ANA game counts as a B2B for the Oilers), and how many games remain against the top 6 above-the-bubble clubs, the mid 5 bubble teams, and the bottom 4 under-the-bubble squads.
A few quick notes:
- The Blues are the only team of the five that won't be playing any other bubble teams for the rest of the season -- at least for them, there is no specific game that they are terrified to lose.
- The Oilers play their last game outside of Alberta tonight -- they'll end with six straight home games then a quick jaunt to Calgary.
- Nashville, St. Louis, and Minnesota all have schedules dominated by top-six opponents, which could be a boon or a bust -- top six teams still have reasons to win, but it's not life-or-death.
- The Ducks seem pretty good by all these metrics, which makes me even more nervous. If they can find a way to beat the Sharks twice, it should go a long way to securing that first round BoC.
Feel free to leave any more observations, predictions, or random thoughts in the comments.
* * *
Lastly, I wanted to throw a quick table to show some numbers for Nickelodeon's impressive first nine games in Anaheim, and I'm even going to compare it to some lofty results -- Pahlsson's 2007 cup run. Now Nokelainen isn't quite at the level of minutes-played or level of competition that Pahlsson had in the cup run, but it's similar. Largely ignore the power play line -- mostly what matters is the even-strength and shorthanded comparisons.
click to enlarge
Pahlsson still holds the edge in points-per-hour and goal-differential-per-hour, but Nokelainen is not that far off in either manpower situation. It's still early, of course, and Nokester is still getting acclimated, but so far it's been promising -- he's outscoring some tough-ish opposition and in more than 108 even-strength minutes, Nokelainen has only been on the ice for one goal against. Nice work, kid.
Prediction: As noted, Anaheim holds its fate in its own hands, which hasn't boded well all season. I'm ready for the letdown. Oilers 4, Ducks 2 (wink). Goals by the Finns -- Nokelainen and Selanne.
Go Ducks.
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well we never seemt o beat the oli…and i dont suspect well do it now….so i suspect a loss…tee-hee
thanks sharks for fuckin losing by the way
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions
True, and tonight I really don’t even have a sense of who the correct goaltender to play is.
Hiller’s been great, but Giguere had a heck of a game in Nashville, too. I’m not sure which way I’m even leaning.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
goaltending
wont be the issue….for some reason i have a good feeling with jiggy…have no reason for that though
i just smell bad defensive play today……..expect a corey perry pentalty in the offensive zone….a christanson giveaway leading to a goal…and the oil scoring half the time on the PP
am i the only one…whos terrified when were on the PK?…..doesnt it seem like we give teams to much space on the PP? shots constantly go thru….we just seemt to get lucky everytime we kill off a pk….
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
we just seemt to get lucky everytime we kill off a pk….
It might be luck, but it’s worth noting that Anaheim’s PK for the month of March is going better than any other month this year. Still three games to go, but the Ducks could finally have a month with less than a dozen PPGs against.
Here’s the monthly breakdown:
Oct. 08: 14 PPGA on 71 chances, .803 PK%
Nov. 08: 12 PPGA on 66 chances, .818 PK%
Dec. 08: 12 PPGA on 69 chances, .826 PK%
Jan. 09: 12 PPGA on 54 chances, .778 PK%
Feb. 09: 13 PPGA on 52 chances, .750 PK%
Mar. 09: 5 PPGA on 38 chances, .868 PK%
So I don’t really know if that’s an illusion, but it seems to be an improvement for sure.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
that was a very needed chart…..i can rest a little better…
now a challenge would be..how many corey perry-getzlaf dumb penalties have led to PP goals…that might be a frightening number….maybe u shouldnt research that
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
thanks sharks for fuckin losing by the way
ugh! I’m sure they’ll try to not make it a habit.
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
by ang6666 on Mar 27, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
they can make it up by not showing up…those 2 games we play toghter
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Hmm, here's a disturbing trend
In the ten times that the Oilers have visited Anaheim since the lockout (7 regular season + 3 postseason), the Ducks are 2-7-1. Anaheim’s only two wins came during their cup season.
I guess you could say that since Pronger switched teams, that record is 2-2-1, but that’s still not that encouraging. Every point counts big-time nowadays.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Personally
I’m terrified about this game tonight. I keep thinking that the win in Colorado…while yes, alot of fun…gave these guys too much false hope. It was a smoothering of a terrible team, which counts for nothing (except for the much needed 2 points). Edmonton is going to be ten times harder in comparison and with the way these Ducks play from night to night…I’ll be impressed if they get the win.
GO DUCKS!! DUCKSandPUCKS.com
speaking of bad avalanche…i think for the first time…i saw what amounted to really bad goaltending…i mean it was really noticeable…..holy shit…….
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
LOL, on that note…
How bad is your goal tending when you start a guy, replace him and then realize that the replacement is WORSE…and bring back the first BAD guy. Awful.
I honestly felt bad for them.
GO DUCKS!! DUCKSandPUCKS.com
that had to be the weridest thing ive ever seen…..thats why i agree with u SK…im writing off the colorado win…pretend it didnt happen
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
omg is that what happened?? don’t think I’ve ever seen that. wow!! what does that do for morale of the goalie??
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
by ang6666 on Mar 27, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
It was a smoothering of a terrible team, which counts for nothing (except for the much needed 2 points).
I dunno — I’m not going to disregard the result. For one, it broke a pattern of mostly-barely-beating teams (usually by blowing third period leads), which can be scary if it goes long enough. Also, let’s not forget how we used to play against terrible teams — terribly. That was definitely a huge step up for the Ducks.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yea I see all of that too, but it was TOO easy ya know? I mean, obviously their goal tending was an issue and the goals that got by were just weak. Both of Perry’s goals were good looks and I think the goal Ebbett tiped in was nice, but the others were just the luck of a crappy defense.
I’m not saying that I don’t think it was a fabulous boost of morale for them, but I hope that it wasn’t taken too seriously. They should beat Colorado like that. With all of the injuries they are suffering from, they’re probably the worst in the NHL right now? Even Atlanta and NYI had better tallent during their games against the Ducks than Colorado did.
GO DUCKS!! DUCKSandPUCKS.com
They should beat Colorado like that.
That’s somewhat a fair statement, so long as we don’t have to use anything from this season to justify it.
Even the cup year, though, the Ducks only managed to win 3 of 103 games by 5+ goals. So I’d probably say that “they should beat Colorado” and leave it at that. I certainly don’t expect them to score that many or win by that many against the Avs on Sunday.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’m not saying that I don’t think it was a fabulous boost of morale for them, but I hope that it wasn’t taken too seriously. They should beat Colorado like that.
After the second period of that game, I started worrying, not only for tonight’s game, but for Sunday’s rematch against the Avs. I suppose we have to trust that the team won’t get complacent. Much hand-wringing to come!
Whoops!
I just realized there’s a mistake in the Nokelainen table — somehow a goal got omitted. My bad.
So in nine games at even-strength, Nokes should have 3 goals and 1 assist — 2.21 points-per-hour, which brings him even closer to Pahlsson’s cup run rates.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
that was your sami bias taking over there..
3 goals really? shit nto bad for a 3rd liner
El Spade-o
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Mar 27, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
For a similar look at the last 8 games for the bubble
Head over to Puck Daddy.
He includes more teams, more Lebowski, and fewer tables, but it’s roughly the same thing.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’m in for tonight, but you guys and gals might be on your own for a few games. I don’t think I’m around to watch any of the next three games after tonight.
Turns out I’m quite a busy dude.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Lucky you.
Works been slow for me.
Anyone need any electrical work?
oh, and go ducks. wait , I mean fuck up ducks. wait, I mean……oh fuck it, let’s just see what happens.
hooked on quack
Yeah, the economy sucks.
I wrote a Leno-monologue-style joke about it:
“The economy is so bad that historians are now referring to the 1930s as the ‘Meh’ Depression.”
Screw you, Penner.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
OK, now just a bit more of that
Good work, top line. Now Selanne needs to redeem himself.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
You know, it’s still too early to really say, but for years I’ve just assumed that Getzlaf will someday be the long-term captain of the Ducks, but only now I’ve realized that Bobby Ryan might not be a bad choice. Hmmm…
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Attaboy, Moustache. Good stuff so far in this first — Selanne’s been good, Marchant had a moment of inspiration, good possession.
Now just score that damn goal.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Parros with two fights thus far? I’m digging it.
The Oil’s been turning over the puck in their defensive zone a lot in the last five minutes.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Much to my chagrin I’m really pulling for the Ducks tonight. Between Stortini and Moreau being douches and the potential of a BoC playoff series, this seems like a good night to root for the Ducks.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
This should give ample time for Getzlaf to lose a faceoff and waste twenty seconds.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
That negativity seems to be working for the Ducks lately eh Sleek?
;)
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Roloson up to his old tricks. What a fucking chump. Helmet comes off, net comes off, it’s all the same.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Pop-o-mask asshat.
Oh well, it’s a horrid start but the Ducks play much better when trailing than when leading, I think.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Pop-o-mask asshat.
Pop-o-masshat? Regardless of how you end up saying it, I’m pretty sure that’s going into my daily vocabulary.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Hold the phone: someone cross-checked Corey Perry and I think it was a bad thing? Strange.
Also, Parros got his ass handed to him on that 2nd fight. By Stortini, no less.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
someone cross-checked Corey Perry and I think it was a bad thing?
That should pass quickly as soon as somebody can put a microphone in front of Crybaby Perry. CryPerry.
Thanks, Nabby, for the nickname inspiration.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I think Marty McSorely told Stortini during the off-season that you win more fights when you throw punches. God damn if it isn’t working.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
You guys need to pull some strings and lobby Brian Burke to put together a BoC line for USA 2010. Brown/Pavelski/Ryan should all be on the team, even if the line doesn’t shake out like that.
Hell yeah, with JMFJ and Cotton Gin on the blueline.
Jack Johnson and Ryan Whitney, that is.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
It kills me to say it, but I think Ryan may be a little too good to play with Pavelski and Brown by the time the Olympics come around.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
Pavelski maybe. I think Brown is going to be a top 6 forward on that team. Pavelski is probably going to have a checking role, if that, just because he won’t be above Parise or Stastny on the depth chart.
Yeah, and I think Pavelski will thrive in that role too. He doesn’t have enough speed to compete for a top six role, but he’s got good hands and great hockey sense.
He and Brown would make for a very good line, though.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
I think Pavelski is going to have to be huge on the PK for us. I also think Brown could definitely be a great fit on a checking line with Pavelski. I just love the physical aspect Brown brings and I think he could be the guy to crash the net with the skill we have on our top two lines. Kane/Parise and Stastny/Kessel (or some iteration of those 4) are probably going to form the two best lines we’ve seen on Team USA since the ’96 world cup regardless of who they choose to put on the other wing.
Fucking can’t wait for Seeing Through The Hays at intermission.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Hiller needs to fit Rolly-polly tonight. Funny thing is, for once in his life Roloson would keep his down mask on.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
*damn mask on
Jesus, SBN really does need an edit function for something like 30 seconds after you post.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
If you google that, Fear The Fin and BoC are two of the top three sites that pop up. Not that it matters or anything.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Yeah, that search term probably accounts for half of our traffic.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Well, let's see what the Ducks can do in the third
besides squandering power plays.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Attaboy, CryPerry
Now let’s hope this game doesn’t end like the countless other 4-3 games from this season.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I actually was thinking that Marchant got robbed three times tonight. He’s been playing great.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
The ol cliche “This feels like a playoff game,” applies here. God I love hockey.
Slick goal by CryPerry- and there’s another robbery by Roloson. Pronger had that going through the netting and then the boards.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
Question for all the Anaheim fans- does having Getzlaf and Pronger together on the blueline work well on the power play? It seems like Rogaine’s ability to drive the net if he sees a seam, coupled with Pronger’s massive bomb would make that fairly deadly. It’s looked pretty good tonight at any rate.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
It sort of works. It would be a lot more dangerous if Getzlaf wasn’t a pass-first, pass-second, pass-third, shoot-fourth kind of guy.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah, but when it comes to pointmen, it’s always going to be more dangerous if there’s two shooters. With those two, I know it’s going to be Pronger shooting, even if there’s two guys defending him.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah, and it’s not like Getzlaf has a weak shot or anything. I like how it sets up a lot of one timers between the two, but if Getzlaf doesn’t pull the trigger there’s really no point.
Is it just a problem with hitting the net (he doesn’t want to shoot cause he flies em’ wide), or is it him just looking for that perfect shot?
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
This stat was from way earlier in the season
But there were something like 10 games where one team had over fifty shots. Out of those games, only one of those 50+ shot teams won.
I realize that this is not the most comforting statistic, but that’s just what popped in my head when I saw this.
Have the Ducks been successful at all this season when pulling for the extra attacker?
GO DUCKS!! DUCKSandPUCKS.com
Well at least we know what goalie will be starting the next two games.
Hint: it’s not Giguere or “Empty Net”.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Hint: it’s not Giguere or "Empty Net"
Aren’t those the same thing?
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
And an extra attacker. Also, he’s pretty easy on the cap.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
And thus, the landscape changes
Once the Ducks had fate in their own hand, but in two short spans of goals-against, now they fall to the rear of the bubble. Well, we have the tiebreaker against Minnesota, I guess.
Ducks might be pleading with the Sharks for points mercy before this season is through. Fuck.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
That Red Hot Chili Peppers song comes to mind… “give it away, give it away, give it away, give it away now”
Disappointing. Roloson was good, but the rest of the Oilers weren’t, and we decided to practice the Art of Suicide that we know so well, I guess we figured it had been too long since we’ve visited that old friend.
Nobody cares about your opinion.
I really hope I don’t have that song in my head for the rest of the day!
If this game had been played 2 months ago, I would have been feeling good. They played hard (for the most part) and 54 SOG…I can hardly complain about that.
But with so few games remaining…it’s so hard to take anything positive from last night.
…like you all have been saying…no time for moral victories.
GO DUCKS!! DUCKSandPUCKS.com
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Pacific Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Jose
|
54 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 68 |
|
Los Angeles
|
57 | 27 | 19 | 11 | 65 |
|
Phoenix
|
57 | 27 | 21 | 9 | 63 |
|
Dallas
|
56 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 59 |
|
Anaheim
|
57 | 24 | 24 | 9 | 57 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 12:44 AM PST)
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