Sharks Off-Season Plan
by Cheechew on May 25, 2009 2:38 PM PDT
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I still think Greiss could use some more time. We have a pipe full of goalie prospects at the moment, so that might cause problems if we don’t push him up to the show fast. I just don’t yet trust him to be able to preform well at the NHL level. He was pretty solid in the AHL playoffs this season though, so maybe he’s got what it takes.
If we can get Luongo, I’d take him, assuming his asking price isn’t ridiculous.
Of course there is some speculation that Nabby will play out of his mind this year, because he’ll be in a contract year. Whether that’s true or not remains to be seen, but it’s worth keeping in mind when thinking about taking a gamble on a new goalie.
Unless Huskins is asking way less or the same as Semi, I don’t see Semi moving. The team loves him and see potential in him. If they can keep him they will. My understanding was the Huskins was brought in for the playoffs, should the Sharks have advances into the later rounds.
Moen over Grier seems like a good deal.
Of the two big names, I can see moving Joe more than Patty. Patty is a career Shark and pretty well established within the community. As much as some fans like to throw him under the bus, I think he’s an important part of the team and needs to stay. They could also move Nabby and keep both Joe and Patty, assuming we can get another decent goalie to start in front of Griess/Boucher.
The general feeling over at FTF is that Cheech will be gone.
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If the Sharks can make a trade for Luongo, I think you do it and you don’t care what Vancouver asks for in return. Back when Lou was first traded, there was a lot of discussion back home about Datsyuk for Lou straight up (Dats had never had a good playoff at this point in time). I think it was a good idea at the time, and might still be a good idea now. If you can get him for less than that, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
I wouldn’t worry about the “lame-duck” goalie situation. Frankly, Nabby isn’t good enough to deserve any further committment at this time. Let him try and have a big year and earn a big UFA contract, and reap the rewards. If he sucks, then he’s going into a limited UFA market in 2010, when the cap is throttled, and you can replace him for nearly the same production at lower cost.
I love Mike Grier, so I think you should keep him.
Why would you want to trade Ehroff? Two more years at 3.1M cap hit isn’t a big deal for a guy who is a solid second pairing D at the least, and can definitely improve from there. Especially for draft picks? Unless he is what it takes to get Luongo, I wouldn’t really go for that one. Let Blake go if he won’t take a dirt-cheap contract, and use his spot to pull someone up.
The big thing I think this offseason is setup for the 2010 offseason, when Nabby, Marleau, Seto, and Pavelski all become UFA’s or RFA’s. Fill the roster without dedicating too much money for the following offseason.
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I think going after Luongo would be a mistake, given the wealth of talent the Sharks have in the system at that position. If not Greiss, then Stalock or Dakers. And as IAmJoe said, I don’t think there is a “lame-duck” goalie problem (or that it’s even possible to have such a problem), unless the Sharks publicly say that he will not be re-signed. Khabibulin performed very well in Chicago under more difficult circumstances.
If Blake is not re-signed, then D is the obvious need, in my view. Boyle is a clear #1, but it’s gets real murky real fast after that. I’m still not convinced Vlasic or Ehrhoff can fill the #2 post competently on a Stanley Cup winning team.
How are Dakers and Stalock? I’ve heard all our goalie prospects are good, but I haven’t heard much more than that. If we let Nabby go, we’ll need someone to fill the gap, which is why Luongo could be an option. His price is probably too high, but he’s more battle tested that Greiss.
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Dakers was a standout in the WHL, now on Worchester, and Stalock was a first-team All American, taking Minnesota-Duluth to the NCAA tournament.
“Dakers scouting report on sharkspage”http://sharkspage.com/2009_01_01_archive.html.
I heard Dakers is out until November because of surgery, though. And Stalock was signed to a pro contract during the playoffs, so he’ll be in Worcester as well, backing up Greiss (or having a tandem, if Greiss doesn’t play like he did at the end of last season and Stalock really shines).
And then of course, there is the prospect with the most awesome name ever, Tyson Sexsmith. He’s pretty good as well, setting all sorts of records for the WHL. He’ll probably play his overage year in juniors, though, since there’s no place to put him currently.
And there’s Harri Sateri, but I imagine he is still several years away from making the AHL, and is in a pretty good situation playing professionally overseas in Switzerland.
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The only thing that would scare me off Lou is the price, and even then, not much would scare me off him. The guy is one of the two best goalies in the NHL, easily. If you get a chance to get that, and the price is right (and a high price would be the right price), then I’d do it.
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I agree IAmJoe, I keep saying that Lou is the best goalie in the league, and is probably the only goalie worth paying anything more than $2 mil/yr. I would send an offer of Nabby/Ehrhoff/Cheechoo and see if they bite. That would open up a bit of cap room while upgrading the goaltending from above average to stellar.
Another thing, I think every team overvalues their goalie prospects. I’m not saying the Sharks aren’t known for producing good goalies, but if one of Stalock/Greiss/Satteri/Dakers becomes Vesa Toskola, that is pretty damn good. As RudyKelly probably knows, there are a lot more Jonathan Berniers around than Steven Masons. With that in mind, if you can obtain the #1 goalie in the land in his prime without gutting the team, you do it.
I keep saying that Lou is the best goalie in the league, and is probably the only goalie worth paying anything more than $2 mil/yr.
I’ll almost agree with you on the first part, but am a bit puzzled by the latter part. In a $56 M cap world (or whatever we are these days), it’s not a good rule to devote $2M+ to arguably the most important player on the ice? Sure there’s lots of NHL caliber goalies (supply) to meet this on-ice demand, but I’d pay lots of goalies in this league north of $2M and wouldn’t lose much sleep over it.
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Perhaps $2mil/yr is a little thrift, but the importance of the position is only part of the equation, as you do point out. If there are 60 Loungo type goaltenders, then I wouldnt pay anything over the minimum, even if the goalie could win the game by himself. But at least currently, there seems to be a big bunchup in goalie quality. There is Loungo at the top, an in his prime world class goalie. Then there is a distinct jump to the second class, good goalies with some flaw (age or a bad 5 hole, say) or young goalies trying to prove themselves. Then there is another distinct jump to the Brian Boucher’s and Alex Auld’s of the world. I would guess there are 15-20 goalies in this second class and another 30-40 in the third class.
If that is true (of course, total conjecture on my part, I’m no scout) then the Evgeni Nabokov’s and JS Giguere’s of the world really aren’t that valuable at any point in time. Despite the importance of goaltending, if it is reasonably possible to obtain or promote a Jonas Hiller or Vesa Toskola for $2mil, spending anything above that is solely for “sureness”, and looking at Nabby and Giggy, how much “sureness” did that money really buy?
Lou, however, is different. The statistical models I have seen (albeit, I’ve only seen a few) have him as clearly the best goaltender in the league for a while now. He is still in his prime. He is the only goalie who has clearly shown himself to be separate from the pack such that it is probably a wise investment to give him $7mil a year.
That said, I can imagine the uproar if, after Giggy had won the cup, the Ducks let him go because “hey, we got this Bryzgolov guy who ain’t bad either!” This isn’t strat-o-matic.
I’m all for trying to get Luongo, but there’s no way Vancouver would take on that salary — Nabby ($5M), Ehrhoff ($3M), and Cheechoo ($3M). No team in the league would accept that much salary in a trade. To get Luongo, the Canucks would want cheap, but productive players — guys like Pavs, Seto, and/or possibly Vlasic. Maybe you could convince them on Ehrhoff instead of Vlasic. Or Mitchell instead of Seto. Couture would probably have value because he’s cheap and a top-10 pick.
The easiest way to get around Cheechoo’s salary — I don’t know if another team even offers a 2nd round draft pick for him — is to put him in the minors, just like McClaren. And, if you are bringing on Luongo, maybe you can ship Nabokov to Philadelphia for a 2nd round pick.
Basically, to get Luongo, we have to swap out the salary slots for Nabokov and Cheechoo. Or, if you are lucky, maybe you can swap out the salary from Nabokov and savings from Blake’s new contract.
In order to make moves — getting another legit defenceman or a goalie upgrade — SJ is going to have to move around a lot of heavy salary (probably upwards of $15M). Nabokov, Cheechoo, Ehrhoff… even Murray at $2.5M is kind of burdensome if you think about it. I know he’s the only physical defencemen you have, but in a salary cap world, you can’t be spending $2.5M on him. Replace him with Huskins/Semenov at half the cost.
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