Season Review: B-Ry Hits His Money Year

Yeah, I'm mixing Monty Python metaphors here. But I do like the hinged jaw.
While I did start by profiling Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry for this "Season Review" series -- they are indeed Anaheim's established first-line stars -- let's not forget that when asked to pick last season, I instead selected Bobby Ryan as Anaheim's Hart Trophy winner. Ryan, unlike Getzlaf & Perry, was able to put up serious outscoring numbers with a variety of linemates -- most of Getzlaf & Perry's real success came when Bobby Ryan got inserted on their line. It's not impossible that Ryan might not be the best offensive star of the three, and perhaps by as early as next season.
Just to further emphasize the B-Ry impact, I also went to another source -- HockeyAnalysis.com's player breakdown, which looks at how players performed at even-strength last season playing with and without a specific teammate, in this case Bobby Ryan. I think the stats are for regular-season only, which is probably fine -- I suspect by the end of the playoffs B-Ry was playing injured anyways. The last three columns show how much scoring rates improved for each player when Bobby Ryan was put on their line (note: you may have to click on the extended post to see the full table).
|
Player |
Time with |
With Bobby Ryan |
Without Bobby Ryan |
Bobby Ryan Factor |
||||||
|
B Ryan |
GF/20 |
GA/20 |
GD/20 |
GF/20 |
GA/20 |
GD/20 |
GF/20 |
GA/20 |
GD/20 |
|
|
R Getzlaf |
360.00 |
+1.17 |
-0.94 |
+0.22 |
+1.04 |
-0.88 |
+0.16 |
+0.13 |
-0.06 |
+0.07 |
|
A Ebbett |
304.80 |
+1.38 |
-0.85 |
+0.53 |
+0.76 |
-0.68 |
+0.08 |
+0.62 |
-0.17 |
+0.45 |
|
C Perry |
296.33 |
+1.28 |
-0.88 |
+0.41 |
+1.07 |
-0.87 |
+0.21 |
+0.21 |
-0.01 |
+0.20 |
|
T Selanne |
196.82 |
+1.32 |
-1.12 |
+0.20 |
+0.70 |
-0.83 |
-0.13 |
+0.62 |
-0.29 |
+0.33 |
|
B Morrison |
151.83 |
+1.19 |
-0.66 |
+0.53 |
+0.64 |
-0.62 |
+0.03 |
+0.54 |
-0.04 |
+0.50 |
|
G Parros |
80.00 |
+2.00 |
-0.75 |
+1.25 |
+0.58 |
-0.42 |
+0.16 |
+1.42 |
-0.33 |
+1.09 |
|
R Carter |
67.77 |
+1.48 |
-0.30 |
+1.18 |
+0.47 |
-0.53 |
-0.06 |
+1.00 |
+0.24 |
+1.24 |
Takeaway: of the seven forwards with whom Bobby Ryan played the most even-strength minutes with, he improved every one of their offensive and goal-differential results, in many cases substantially. He was able to take minutes of non-factors like Brendan Morrison, Ryan Carter, and George Parros (!), and turn them into productive minutes -- granted, in those cases he probably didn't see the opposition's best defenders, but that doesn't make the results less valuable.
Next season, it's a real inner debate for me whether it makes sense to keep Bobby Ryan as wingman on the Getzlaf-Perry line or whether he's more valuable improving results of depth players -- he can turn that top line into a nearly-unstoppable force, but if he could propel lesser lights into scoring lines, that's a big gain for the Ducks also. One area in which I am decided, though: I think the days of limiting Bobby Ryan's success (and thus limiting his next salary) are over -- this year I think the Ducks should give Bobby Ryan every chance to dominate at the NHL level.
Longtime readers should know that I've had a regular campaign against the playing time of Bobby Ryan, as he is due a sizeable first raise next summer, and the more successful his career-to-date becomes, the more his next salary cap figure is likely to be. To that end, I think the Ducks have done a fabulous job of keeping this kid in the cupboard -- even his Calder campaign year, he spent a good chunk of time in the minors (note: same thing happened to Getzlaf & Perry -- helps take the pressure off, I think). I'm also thrilled that voters liked goaltender Mason so much -- Ryan should be slightly more affordable as a Calder runnner-up.
But I think the team has done all it realistically can do in preparation for Ryan's payday -- Ryan will still earn a significant raise, as he should, unless somehow the wheels fall off his cart this season. And that's fine -- I keep hopeful it should be a reasonable deal, though. Working for the Ducks are a couple of things -- for one, Getzlaf and Perry each have identical-cap-hit contracts that set sort of a natural team ceiling on forwards -- $5.325 M. I think Ryan would have to seriously outperform both Getzlaf and Perry in order to ask for a higher cap hit. Also, with the cap stagnating or falling, at least he's not negotiating in a boom market.
So I guess what I'm saying is: in previous years, I was in favor of limiting Bobby Ryan's chances at NHL success -- keep him in the minors, put him on checking lines, keep him off the top power play, etc., etc. It was good for his next contract and I think good for his overall development. But this year, I'm flipping a u-turn philosophically. I say this is the year to give Bobby Ryan every opportunity to succeed and have a monster year. Dare this kid to outperform Getzlaf & Perry (which could become impossible if they are full-season linemates), and see if he can't earn something north of the $5.325 M measuring stick -- if he can do it, it's very likely that Anaheim has a monster season as well.
It's your money year, B-Ry. I think the bar has been set and the shackles are off, let's see how big an impact a full year of unfettered awesomeness can really make.
Go Ducks.
0 recs |
12 comments
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Comments
I don’t believe in making on-ice decisions for financial purposes. All you do is wind up with a disgruntled player who knows they should be playing more. Look at Jiri Hudler. His agent isn’t stupid, he knows that his skill level merits more than 13 minutes per night. It didn’t keep the contract demand down. (I’m not saying the Wings did that to keep Jiri’s cap hit down, but it didn’t impact the situation regardless).
I like Carlyle’s method of easing young players into roles. He didn’t hand ice time to Lupul, he took baby steps with Getz, Perry and Penner, and eased Ryan along despite the Ducks crying need for more scoring. I think this philosophy pays off. Lupul and Penner, without that guidance, tailed off. I don’t think that’s an accident.
Look at Chad Kilger. It was obvious from the outset that he was rushed into the NHL well before he was ready. As a result, he wound up doing just what he could to survive and made an unremarkable career out of that. If he was brought along slowly, allowed to get acclimated to the speed of the NHL and worked on the skills that made him a #4 pick in the first place… well, maybe nothing changes, but maybe things might have worked out differently. I think Oleg and Vish were brought along too quickly as well.
by Snap Wilson on Aug 10, 2009 9:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t believe in making on-ice decisions for financial purposes. All you do is wind up with a disgruntled player who knows they should be playing more.
You and I are awfully different, then. If Ryan is truly one of the foundational blocks for the Ducks over the next part of a decade, then his next salary matters a great, great deal to me — it likely will help determine how good a team the Ducks can be over that stretch.
It thrills me to no end that B-Ry is a million points behind Sid Crosby career-wise. I really don’t know how much of an asset young Ryan would be if he figured to make $8.7M perpetually — basically it would just rob our ability to fill in the rest of the team.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Aug 10, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To me, that’s playing a game of chicken. It operates under the assumption that agents negotiate by the numbers rather than the perceived value. I’m gonna guess Bobby Ryan’s agent disagrees with you.
I’m sure Bobby (and his agent) are looking at this as a breakout year regardless of how Carlyle uses him. If he’s obviously kicking ass and the Ducks hold him back and try to argue at the end of the year that he didn’t prove he was worth big money, they’re just piling a dishonest negotiation on top of dishonest player usage. I don’t think that would lead to the long-term contract you’re looking for.
Regarding statistical vs. perceived value, Perry’s injury hurt his counting stats in his RFA year, yet he still got a cool five million and is probably overpaid. Getz is similarly underpaid, but we don’t know if his salary is what it is because he hadn’t established himself as a superstar yet or because he liked the organization so much and valued the long term security more than the extra dough. Actually, I’m sure it’s the latter because he committed the majority of his prime to the team with that contract. If the Ducks farted around with him to keep his counting numbers down, maybe he isn’t that happy and negotiations aren’t as smooth. It was generally regarded at the time that the Ducks scored a bargain, and I’m sure Getz and his agent was aware of that.
by Snap Wilson on Aug 10, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that Bobby Ryan’s value is largely set — he did a lot to get that Calder runner-up. He could move up or down with next year’s performance, obviously, but I think he’s already put himself in elite, franchise-type company — similar to what Getzlaf and Perry had done by the time they were negotiating.
Perhaps Bobby Ryan feels that he deserves to have a Crosby-sized career by now, and maybe he’s got some bitterness towards that, but it’s a tough argument to say his playing time in 2007 should have been a bigger priority than Anaheim’s Stanley Cup. As for the rest, it was a pretty evident salary cap mess — I think he saw the reality of his situation.
One thing that does give me hope about the kid’s mindset, though, was the quote he gave when he was sent down at the start of last year — he was asked I think about the bonus clauses that were effectively keeping him out of the NHL:
You just want to warn guys that it could be something that comes back to bite you. I’d waive ‘em in a heartbeat if I could – take it down to the league minimum or whatever it would be. When it’s right there in front of your face and it’s a couple hundred thousand dollars that’s hurting you, it’s tough.
If Bobby Ryan one year ago at least had a rudimentary understanding of cap realities back then, hopefully he’s still got those instincts now. I hope he gets the notion that if he softens on individual salary demands, the team likely improves as a result.
I dunno — mainly my feeling is relief — Bobby Ryan is an awesome player, but I’m happy that he hasn’t got an awesome player’s resume yet. Makes him fit much better in a poor-spending team like Anaheim’s future, I think. Hopefully he’s not pissed about it — we shall see, I guess.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And as I say in the post, he’s got the opportunity to outperform Getzlaf and Perry this season, if that’s his nagging issue. It’s not like the door’s completely closed on his next salary — just earn it then, kid.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Aug 10, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Making on-ice decisions strictly for financial purposes is generally stupid, but I think there is definitely a middle ground there that works well for everyone involved, and I think the Ducks have done a great job of finding that middle ground. Getzlaf and Perry were slowly brought up, from 4th line duty to 2nd line help to 1st line leaders. No way was that done purely to keep their earnings down, but thats a nice benefit. If you dropped the two of them on the 1st line from day 1, would they be as good as they are now? Maybe, maybe not, at least not without significant growing pains, so this has also helped them develop into the players they are (and the players the team would like them to be).
Unfortunately for Ryan (and for the Ducks as well), the realities of a cap forced the finances to be more of a consideration that would be preferable. But working that middle ground has done good things for both team (financially, and in terms of improving the players on the team) and the players (Getzlaf and Perry are probably better for the way they’ve been brought up through the organization). I think continuing to try to walk that ground with Ryan is a pretty good plan.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
by IAmJoe on Aug 10, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ryan would have to seriously outperform both Getzlaf and Perry in order to ask for a higher cap hit.
Could this hurt the Ducks down the road? The list of guys better than Getzlaf and Perry is pretty short. If 5.3 is the salary ceiling, the Ducks could have no shot a high-end free agent until those contracts are up.
by mepex on Aug 10, 2009 10:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m only using it for the short term — next summer — and the cap mechanics play a lot into that.
Obviously there’s nothing really preventing the Ducks going and spending more on another UFA, but based on what I guess about Anaheim’s spending budget, I don’t see it in the near future. I’m not sure it’s in the Ducks’ best interest, either (when’s the last $6M UFA player signed that was “worth it”?), especially if Getz & Perry & Ryan are all still on the books for significant dollars.
And it’s not team-wide. Niedermayer, Pronger, and Giguere all made north of the Getzlaf figure last year, and two of them will do so again this year.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Aug 10, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, I guess it’s worth clarifying: the rules I’m applying to Bobby Ryan’s likely RFA negotiations should probably be kept distinct from what a UFA would use. A UFA’s primary tool isn’t so much about comparative salaries within a roster — their value is more decided based on what another bidding team would pay.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Aug 10, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Earl, I always rationalized your writing by telling myself, “Sure, he’s using stupid puns and making tortured Battlestar Galactica references, but at least he’s not referencing Monty Python like some drama class douche bag.”
Now I don’t know what to think.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
by RudyKelly on Aug 10, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
“Hey, at least he’s not writing about golf.”
I think that might be safe.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Aug 10, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bobby doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would push the dollars against an already tight ceiling. Of course, I don’t know what’s going on in his head, but he comes across as a modest kid who’s happy for his chance to break out.
I guess that can all change once he really hits the big time.
Either way, I really want to see what he can do with a full season in the NHL. In future seasons with the Ducks or not, I love this kid and I can’t wait to see what he’s capable of.
I went to see the fights, but a hockey game broke out...
http://ducks54.blogspot.com
by Ducks54 on Aug 10, 2009 10:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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