Fantasy Hockey: Help Sleek pick his keepers
by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 12:25 AM PDT
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PrintWell, it's fantasy hockey season, apparently -- time for Sleek to re-contribute to the Mirtle Retirement Fantasy League superfund, and to match my west-coast wits against some awfully steep competition. Last year's league featured such blogging superstars as Mirtle, our own PJ of Sharkspage, Puck Daddy, Spector, Matt of BoA, Kent of MSG (the flat-out winner), the Forechecker, Pension Plan Puppets, Japers' Rink, and a few folks with "globeandmail" hidden in their e-mail addresses. I've written about this league's drafts before, which all run pretty darn deep -- here's my picks last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, and in all those years, I've been bad enough to not win but good enough to get invited back.
Last year, if you recall, two twists were added: (1) money, as alluded to above, and (2) we were promised two "keepers" that we could carry forward to this season. Before I discuss that, though, here's some overall league specifics: 18 teams H2H (daily changes), 20 roster spots apiece (plus IR), with these settings:
Roster Positions: C, C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, F, F, D, D, D, D, Util, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR, IR, IR, IR
Skater Categories: Goals (G), Assists (A), Plus/Minus (+/-), Penalty Minutes (PIM), Powerplay Goals (PPG), Powerplay Assists (PPA), Game-Winning Goals (GWG), Shots on Goal (SOG)
Goalie Categories: Wins (W), Goals Against Average (GAA), Saves (SV), Save Percentage (SV%), Shutouts (SHO)
Noteworthy aspects: with "Saves" as a category and 18 teams trying to field two goalies apiece, the value of a clear-cut starting goalie becomes enormous in this league -- netminders make up 5 of the 13 weekly categories. Also, with two "Forward" spots and one "Utility" spot available, it's not very important to worry about position when drafting forwards -- there will always be slots to stash extra wingers.
So that said, let's get to today's predicament -- I needs to tell Mirtle within the next week or so who my two keepers are from last year's roster. One of the two is very easy -- I nabbed Evgeni Malkin with the fourth overall pick in the last draft, and he's not going anywhere. But beyond that, I'm a bit stumped. A large part of me says that I should use my other "keeper" slot on a goalie, since they prove so valuable, and I have two decent choices there -- Ryan Miller, who should get a ton of starts, and Jonas Hiller, who may as well.
However, I've also been informed that I have the 6th overall pick in this year's draft, so I could keep a second forward and try to draft a solid netminder with the early pick. I do have some quality choices for 2nd forward -- Thomas Vanek and his 40 goals, Bobby Ryan and his contract year, Devin Setoguchi and his cushy job on Thornton's wing, Simon Gagne and his wonky groin in Philly, Dustin Brown as part of L.A.'s revival, or even longshots like Chris Kunitz or Teemu Selanne.
All in all, it's turning into a bit of a head-scratcher with probably more than one "right" answer, so I'm opening up a poll (for your consideration, I've included everyone's last-year stats after the jump). Mostly, I think I'm favoring four names -- Miller, Hiller, Vanek, or Ryan -- but I'm willing to listen to arguments for (or against) any choice in the comments. Toss in a vote, let me know your thoughts, and let's bring this title down to SoCal where it belongs.
Go Ducks.
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Incidentally, I don’t suspect PJ has any keeper dilemmas. I would be shocked if his two keepers weren’t named Nabokov and Marleau.
Also: one reason I may be overvaluing Bobby Ryan is that I had to waste a roster spot on him a month before he played an NHL game last year. Reason I did it? Pre-emptive protectionsism. Because I was certain that once Bobby Ryan got called up to the Ducks, that Spector and Puck Daddy would know it probably two days before I would.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Holy crap, I forgot about the two keepers! Expect an “Alex Ovechkin signed to 13-year contract with the Fabulous Forecheckers” headline soon.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Heh, my league has 10 keepers (8 Skaters/2 goalies or 9 skaters/1 goalie)
At that point it goes from “Shit, who should I keep?” to “Shit, who else should I keep?”
It was a glorious and tragic season: went 17-2 (H2H style), Miller gets injured, I lose the last 2 weeks to finish 17-4 and then top it off by losing to the worst team that made the playoffs. And Miller’s healed I was basically the San Jose Sharks.
On that note, anyone want to co-GM or full-GM my team? I’ve sorta lost interest. Let me know.
Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.
should have read “and then Miller healed. I was basically the San Jose Sharks.” dammit. This picture works well:
Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.
Hm, I wandered over to the league page to see how it was filling in an saw this note:
Max Teams changed from ‘18’ to ‘16’
I think that may change things a bit, if true — the scarcity of goaltenders who play should be somewhat lessened.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Do you have to keep two, and if you don’t, do you get some compensation? I think Malkin is the only keeper. With the #6 overall, you should be able to get a better goalie than either Miller or Hiller. Miller has the anchor of being on team that will probably miss the playoffs, and Hiller is certainly vulnerable. Don’t you think he could ride the pine for an extended period if he has a bad stretch? Why wouldn’t the Ducks get Jiggy with it again? I feel dirty for having typed that last sentence.
Nah, no compensation for picking less than two, but I’m certain that there’s teams that have worse decisions than I do. Mirtle might be protecting Hossa just to start him on the IR.
As for Buffalo’s playoff chances, I’m not sure that matters too much — they’ll be in the hunt, I suspect. Really what’s attractive about Miller is that you know he’s going to get starts when healthy — a clear-cut #1 on a mediocre team can be as good as a platoon goalie on a great team, thanks to the “saves” tally. But you’re probably right — if I protect a winger, I suspect I’ll do no worse than Ryan Miller at G.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
My team was very deep through the middle but weak in terms of top end players. Hossa’s the only one, so I’m really boned to start. Plus I pick fourth last.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
I think Malkin is the only keeper.
Just curious, too — what’s wrong with Vanek or Ryan, then? Seems Vanek’s got a cushy goal-scoring job with loads of PP opportunity and Bobby Ryan’s certainly going to have more at-bats on the top line than he got last year.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I picked Vanek because you can pencil in 35 goals and a bunch of power play points.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
Yeah, for sure. The Vanek-Ryan debate in my head says “Would you rather have a guy who just scored 40 goals in reality or the one who’s doing it next year in your imagination?”
I love B.Ry, and it’s not a bad choice if the poll goes that way (plus for future keepership), but man — Vanek is certainly no chump; he was a great pick last year.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
yea everytime i look at goal leader that asshole us up there…he that good?
i guess
its a sure thing as any
Put those cookies back..Mutha fucka!!
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Sep 3, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Hiller is certainly vulnerable. Don’t you think he could ride the pine for an extended period if he has a bad stretch? Why wouldn’t the Ducks get Jiggy with it again? I feel dirty for having typed that last sentence.
Yeah, this is the main argument against Hiller — uncertainty. Definitely both goalies will have a chance to prove themselves behind a suddenly-Prongerless defense, and it certainly could go either way.
Keeping Hiller is essentially betting that despite the change in personnel, Hiller still wins out and still puts up excellent numbers — definitely possible, but not a sure thing.
The one other aspect that would be cool about keeping Jonas Hiller is that I traded Jiri Hudler for him from PJ midseason last year, and PJ ain’t keepin’ no Hudler.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’ll make a case for the other Ryan- Bobby Ryan. That could be the best line in hockey next year. Use the #6 for a goalie, and keep the kid.
BTW, I’ve been checking out that last few episodes of the DOH Sharks podcast — quality stuff, and hey! I even got a shout-out! :)
http://www.battleofcali.com/
enemy? hey now! we’re the good guys!! :)
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
by ang6666 on Sep 3, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I say
You keep Vanek. Yeah, this is a Ducks/Kings/Shakrs blog and I’m a Ducks fan, but Vanek is going to put up a ton of points, and most importantly, he’s a left winger. From a fantasy perspective (especially since you’re playing individual forward positions and not forward/defense/goal), that makes him gold. There are only a few top quality left wingers out there. B-Ry is gold on the right, but there are a ton of natural right wingers playing on the left (like, well, him). You can find other guys for the right side, but finding another left side man is tough.
I’d lean toward keeping Ryan Miller.
Think about it this way: you could draft anyone you want in the first few rounds, rather than sweating bullets hoping that you can draft a competent goalie. And if you decided to get a second goalie in the early rounds, you’d have a great step forward in winning 4 out of the 5 goalie stats each week (since shutouts are fairly random).
I usually don’t like to draft my favorite players/guys from my favorite teams with my early picks because then you have to worry about a double whammy of your reality and fantasy teams suffering simultaneously. That’s a wild emotional risk, Sleek.
If you HAD to choose a forward, go with Vanek. He scored all those goals and didn’t even play a full season.
When I'm not battling in California:
Cycle Like The Sedins
Fantasy Question
I was offered a trade -
I would give:
Ryan Getzlaf
Andrew Ladd
I would receive:
Joe Thornton
Chris Mason
Usually offers for Getzlaf are an easy “Decline” but I’m 50/50 here.
Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.
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