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Fantasy Hockey: Help Sleek pick his keepers

Well, it's fantasy hockey season, apparently -- time for Sleek to re-contribute to the Mirtle Retirement Fantasy League superfund, and to match my west-coast wits against some awfully steep competition.  Last year's league featured such blogging superstars as Mirtle, our own PJ of Sharkspage, Puck Daddy, Spector, Matt of BoA, Kent of MSG (the flat-out winner), the Forechecker, Pension Plan Puppets, Japers' Rink, and a few folks with "globeandmail" hidden in their e-mail addresses.  I've written about this league's drafts before, which all run pretty darn deep -- here's my picks last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, and in all those years, I've been bad enough to not win but good enough to get invited back.

Last year, if you recall, two twists were added: (1) money, as alluded to above, and (2) we were promised two "keepers" that we could carry forward to this season.  Before I discuss that, though, here's some overall league specifics: 18 teams H2H (daily changes), 20 roster spots apiece (plus IR), with these settings:

Roster Positions: C, C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, F, F, D, D, D, D, Util, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR, IR, IR, IR
Skater Categories: Goals (G), Assists (A), Plus/Minus (+/-), Penalty Minutes (PIM), Powerplay Goals (PPG), Powerplay Assists (PPA), Game-Winning Goals (GWG), Shots on Goal (SOG)
Goalie Categories: Wins (W), Goals Against Average (GAA), Saves (SV), Save Percentage (SV%), Shutouts (SHO)

Noteworthy aspects: with "Saves" as a category and 18 teams trying to field two goalies apiece, the value of a clear-cut starting goalie becomes enormous in this league -- netminders make up 5 of the 13 weekly categories.  Also, with two "Forward" spots and one "Utility" spot available, it's not very important to worry about position when drafting forwards -- there will always be slots to stash extra wingers.

So that said, let's get to today's predicament -- I needs to tell Mirtle within the next week or so who my two keepers are from last year's roster.  One of the two is very easy -- I nabbed Evgeni Malkin with the fourth overall pick in the last draft, and he's not going anywhere.  But beyond that, I'm a bit stumped.  A large part of me says that I should use my other "keeper" slot on a goalie, since they prove so valuable, and I have two decent choices there -- Ryan Miller, who should get a ton of starts, and Jonas Hiller, who may as well.  

However, I've also been informed that I have the 6th overall pick in this year's draft, so I could keep a second forward and try to draft a solid netminder with the early pick.  I do have some quality choices for 2nd forward -- Thomas Vanek and his 40 goals, Bobby Ryan and his contract year, Devin Setoguchi and his cushy job on Thornton's wing, Simon Gagne and his wonky groin in Philly, Dustin Brown as part of L.A.'s revival, or even longshots like Chris Kunitz or Teemu Selanne

All in all, it's turning into a bit of a head-scratcher with probably more than one "right" answer, so I'm opening up a poll (for your consideration, I've included everyone's last-year stats after the jump).  Mostly, I think I'm favoring four names -- Miller, Hiller, Vanek, or Ryan -- but I'm willing to listen to arguments for (or against) any choice in the comments.  Toss in a vote, let me know your thoughts, and let's bring this title down to SoCal where it belongs.

Star-divide


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Evgeni Malkin 82 35 78 113 17 80 14 2 4 0 290 12.1


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Thomas Vanek 73 40 24 64 -1 44 20 2 4 2 211 19.0


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Bobby Ryan 64 31 26 57 13 33 12 0 3 0 174 17.8


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Devin Setoguchi 81 31 34 65 16 25 11 0 3 0 246 12.6


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Dustin Brown 80 24 29 53 -15 64 7 0 6 1 292 8.2


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Simon Gagne 79 34 40 74 21 42 12 4 3 1 221 15.4


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Chris Kunitz 82 23 30 53 12 71 6 0 3 0 178 12.9


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Teemu Selanne 65 27 27 54 -3 36 16 0 5 2 186 14.5


GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2008 - Ryan Miller 59 3443 34 18 6 6 145 2.53 1773 1628 .918 5


GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2008 - Jonas Hiller 46 2486 23 15 1 6 99 2.39 1217 1118 .919 4

Go Ducks.

Poll
Fill in the blank: Sleek's two keepers should be Evgeni Malkin, C - PIT, and ________.
Thomas Vanek, LW - BUF
25 votes
Bobby Ryan, RW - ANA
79 votes
Ryan Miller, G - BUF
20 votes
Jonas Hiller, G - ANA
8 votes
Devin Setoguchi, RW - SJS
15 votes
Dustin Brown, RW - LAK
18 votes
Simon Gagne, LW - PHI
6 votes
Chris Kunitz, LW - PIT
1 votes
Teemu Selanne, RW - ANA
8 votes

180 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments |

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Comments

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Incidentally, I don’t suspect PJ has any keeper dilemmas. I would be shocked if his two keepers weren’t named Nabokov and Marleau.

Also: one reason I may be overvaluing Bobby Ryan is that I had to waste a roster spot on him a month before he played an NHL game last year. Reason I did it? Pre-emptive protectionsism. Because I was certain that once Bobby Ryan got called up to the Ducks, that Spector and Puck Daddy would know it probably two days before I would.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 1:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Holy crap, I forgot about the two keepers! Expect an “Alex Ovechkin signed to 13-year contract with the Fabulous Forecheckers” headline soon.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Sep 3, 2009 4:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you’re stuck on your second keeper, running a blog poll was sort of inspired.

That way when things go sour next season I can blame it all on stupid readers flaws in the electoral process.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh, my league has 10 keepers (8 Skaters/2 goalies or 9 skaters/1 goalie)

At that point it goes from “Shit, who should I keep?” to “Shit, who else should I keep?”

It was a glorious and tragic season: went 17-2 (H2H style), Miller gets injured, I lose the last 2 weeks to finish 17-4 and then top it off by losing to the worst team that made the playoffs. And Miller’s healed I was basically the San Jose Sharks.

On that note, anyone want to co-GM or full-GM my team? I’ve sorta lost interest. Let me know.

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 3, 2009 5:44 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

should have read “and then Miller healed. I was basically the San Jose Sharks.” dammit. This picture works well:

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 3, 2009 5:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Miller’s injury killed me, too. I was to the point where I was praying that Curtis Joseph would get a start in Toronto just so I could hit the minimum starts.

But there’s no question — when he’s healthy he sees a lot of starts.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 6:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hm, I wandered over to the league page to see how it was filling in an saw this note:

Max Teams changed from ‘18’ to ‘16’

I think that may change things a bit, if true — the scarcity of goaltenders who play should be somewhat lessened.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 7:29 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s actually the goal.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 4, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love that pun.

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 5, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you have to keep two, and if you don’t, do you get some compensation? I think Malkin is the only keeper. With the #6 overall, you should be able to get a better goalie than either Miller or Hiller. Miller has the anchor of being on team that will probably miss the playoffs, and Hiller is certainly vulnerable. Don’t you think he could ride the pine for an extended period if he has a bad stretch? Why wouldn’t the Ducks get Jiggy with it again? I feel dirty for having typed that last sentence.

by mepex on Sep 3, 2009 8:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nah, no compensation for picking less than two, but I’m certain that there’s teams that have worse decisions than I do. Mirtle might be protecting Hossa just to start him on the IR.

As for Buffalo’s playoff chances, I’m not sure that matters too much — they’ll be in the hunt, I suspect. Really what’s attractive about Miller is that you know he’s going to get starts when healthy — a clear-cut #1 on a mediocre team can be as good as a platoon goalie on a great team, thanks to the “saves” tally. But you’re probably right — if I protect a winger, I suspect I’ll do no worse than Ryan Miller at G.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My team was very deep through the middle but weak in terms of top end players. Hossa’s the only one, so I’m really boned to start. Plus I pick fourth last.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 4, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Malkin is the only keeper.

Just curious, too — what’s wrong with Vanek or Ryan, then? Seems Vanek’s got a cushy goal-scoring job with loads of PP opportunity and Bobby Ryan’s certainly going to have more at-bats on the top line than he got last year.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I think Ryan’s a better choice, mostly because I’ve seen him a lot more than Vanek.

by mepex on Sep 3, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I picked Vanek because you can pencil in 35 goals and a bunch of power play points.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Sep 3, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, for sure. The Vanek-Ryan debate in my head says “Would you rather have a guy who just scored 40 goals in reality or the one who’s doing it next year in your imagination?”

I love B.Ry, and it’s not a bad choice if the poll goes that way (plus for future keepership), but man — Vanek is certainly no chump; he was a great pick last year.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yea everytime i look at goal leader that asshole us up there…he that good?
i guess

its a sure thing as any

Put those cookies back..Mutha fucka!!

by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Sep 3, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hiller is certainly vulnerable. Don’t you think he could ride the pine for an extended period if he has a bad stretch? Why wouldn’t the Ducks get Jiggy with it again? I feel dirty for having typed that last sentence.

Yeah, this is the main argument against Hiller — uncertainty. Definitely both goalies will have a chance to prove themselves behind a suddenly-Prongerless defense, and it certainly could go either way.

Keeping Hiller is essentially betting that despite the change in personnel, Hiller still wins out and still puts up excellent numbers — definitely possible, but not a sure thing.

The one other aspect that would be cool about keeping Jonas Hiller is that I traded Jiri Hudler for him from PJ midseason last year, and PJ ain’t keepin’ no Hudler.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll make a case for the other Ryan- Bobby Ryan. That could be the best line in hockey next year. Use the #6 for a goalie, and keep the kid.

by mepex on Sep 3, 2009 8:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

BTW, I’ve been checking out that last few episodes of the DOH Sharks podcast — quality stuff, and hey! I even got a shout-out! :)

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, and now I know why you listened to an enemy podcast :-).

by mepex on Sep 3, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

enemy? hey now! we’re the good guys!! :)

Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?

by ang6666 on Sep 3, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, whatever the labels, I’m also in a FTF fantasy hockey league with a bunch of Sharkheads. I eagerly anticipate stealing Corey Perry in the final round, fully trusting that nobody else in the league can stomach drafting him.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I say

You keep Vanek. Yeah, this is a Ducks/Kings/Shakrs blog and I’m a Ducks fan, but Vanek is going to put up a ton of points, and most importantly, he’s a left winger. From a fantasy perspective (especially since you’re playing individual forward positions and not forward/defense/goal), that makes him gold. There are only a few top quality left wingers out there. B-Ry is gold on the right, but there are a ton of natural right wingers playing on the left (like, well, him). You can find other guys for the right side, but finding another left side man is tough.

by KeeperX on Sep 3, 2009 10:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing, though — if B.Ry keeps his spot on the Getzlaf-Perry line, he will be playing LW, and Yahoo! may give him that eligibility soon. But you’re right — keeping B.Ry does depend on some things going right, whereas Vanek is a bit more “money in the bank”.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 3, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d lean toward keeping Ryan Miller.

Think about it this way: you could draft anyone you want in the first few rounds, rather than sweating bullets hoping that you can draft a competent goalie. And if you decided to get a second goalie in the early rounds, you’d have a great step forward in winning 4 out of the 5 goalie stats each week (since shutouts are fairly random).

I usually don’t like to draft my favorite players/guys from my favorite teams with my early picks because then you have to worry about a double whammy of your reality and fantasy teams suffering simultaneously. That’s a wild emotional risk, Sleek.

If you HAD to choose a forward, go with Vanek. He scored all those goals and didn’t even play a full season.

When I'm not battling in California:
Cycle Like The Sedins

by jamestobrien on Sep 4, 2009 5:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Always remember, Sleek, peoples lives depend on this decision.

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 4, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fantasy Question

I was offered a trade -

I would give:
Ryan Getzlaf
Andrew Ladd

I would receive:
Joe Thornton
Chris Mason

Usually offers for Getzlaf are an easy “Decline” but I’m 50/50 here.

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 4, 2009 8:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Main question: who are your goalies?

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Sep 4, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Miller and Hiller

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 5, 2009 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meh, I’m thinking I should stick with Getzlaf anyway.

Put the Prozac away, what you need is Rat Poison.

by brokenyard on Sep 5, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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