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Developing Player Value: Penalty +/- per 15 Minutes (PPMp15)

 

 

 

 

I am an admirer of stat geeks of any sport, simply because they do some crazy stuff to try to assess value and can usually confirm my suspicion that Ales Kotalik is worthless.  In fact, many puckheads would probably be delighted to know some of their least favorite players (Hal GillDavid KociRichard "NHL's Worst Player" Zemlak) were, in fact, statistically crappy as well.  So, we here at Bettman's Nightmare are debating, fussing, swearing (sometimes while drinking, sometimes not), and trying to calculate our own way to a metric for assessing player values.  A lot of hockey analysts have team analyses down to an art form, but heckling can be much more effective when you have singular targets.

Thanks to that wonderful stats site Behind the Net and others like it, information on player's abilities to draw penalties has become much more accessible to the average beer drinker.  But drawing penalties is really only halfway there for us; the ability to draw penalties can only be a virtue for a player if he also doesn't take many penalties.  Guys like Tomas Holmstrom draw minor penalties, but if they also get called for a lot of minors, they actually don't gain much (which is fine, because I don't like the Wings).

 

After the jump, your NHL winners and losers of PPMp15...


Star-divide

 

 

So, for this particular chunk of player value, I took Behind the Net's data on penalties drawn (mind you, these are minor penalties) per 60 minutes and subtracted the penalties committed per 60.  Thankfully, BTN subtracts coincidental minors in the process; but I wasn't really satisfied with a metric out of 60 minutes, because it actually lets us know what the player did if he played 60 minutes of the game.  So, I chopped that down by taking the total from the subtraction, dividing by 4, and bringing us to a more starter-of-the-game-like 15 minutes.  Thus, our shiny new metric will give us an idea of how effective or ineffective that player is on a game-to-game basis of gaining power-play opportunities for the ice hockey squad.

For the purposes of this year, I set the minimum games played at 30 to weed out rooks, goons, and gimps.

So, who's the modern-day Esa Tikkanen?

 


God, he reminds me of Jack Black...


PPMp15 Leaders, 2009-10 (so far)

1. Dustin BrownKings .48 PPMp15
2. Zach Parise, Lucifer .40
3. Matt Bradley, The Bandwagon .35
4. Tuomo Ruutu, 'Canes .35
5. Cal Clutterbuck, Adjectives .35
6. Devin Setoguchi, Jaws .35

PPMp15 Leaders Of Not-Being-Good-At-This, 2009-10

1. Nick Boynton, Quacks -.45 PPMp15
2. Hal Gill, Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge -.43
3. Cam Barker, 'Hawks -.40
4. Kent Huskins, Jaws -.35
5. Aaron Ward, 'Canes -.35
6. Craig Rivet, Butter Knives -.35

As you can see, from game to game Dusty Brown is much more likely to gain power-play opportunities for his team, while guys like Boynton and Gill are more likely to hurt their teams.

While it's not the entire of players' abilities, PPMp15 is a skill that gives teams extraordinary opportunities (18-19% PP conversion rates) and should not be overlooked when it comes to contributing to a team's ability to win.

And then you can appreciate the effort when Derek Boogaard or Sean Avery tries to draw a penalty and fails miserably.  And by "appreciate," I mean laugh at those monstrosities.

 

P.S.  Any ideas for a better acronym than "PPMp15"?  It's just not very catchy, although when you say all the letters it sounds like 50 Cents' "P.I.M.P."

P.P.S. Here's the link at Behind the Net where I got my data.

P.P.P.S Here's the link to my original post, at Bettman's Nightmare.

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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how getzlaf wasnt on the same list as boyton ill never know

the sex monster's labido might have ran out

by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jan 7, 2010 10:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

following the link it turns out getz is in the top 10 in penalties taken…i think hes 9th…i didnt realize nick “dick tracey thug” boyton took so many

the sex monster's labido might have ran out

by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jan 7, 2010 10:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

he’s got a little bit of the pronger in him

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 7, 2010 11:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I just realized and forgot to mention...

Behind the Net subtracts coincidental minors, so my numbers do not include coincidental penalties…

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 7, 2010 11:09 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

fixed

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 7, 2010 11:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Any ideas for a better acronym than “PPMp15”?

R.B.F.F. — Referee’s Best Friend Forevah

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jan 7, 2010 11:58 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

earl-i-licuos…weres the gameday post?..i need to say somthing stupid before i go home from work

the sex monster's labido might have ran out

by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jan 7, 2010 1:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh, just scanned a cartoon now. I’ll get busy.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jan 7, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You just need to give it a name, like instead of “attempted shots for/(attempted shots for+attempted shots against)” being ASF/(ASF+ASA) every single time, you just explain it once and give it a cool name like CorsiRatio

Because I use mouthwash. And sometimes, I floss.

by brokenyard on Jan 7, 2010 1:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

How about...

FonzRatio?

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 7, 2010 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting stats. The only problem I have with this is that Forwards will always be on top of this list while defensemen on the bottom – just as your list indicates. Is there a way you can separate these groups out? It would make for a much more compelling statistic. Defensemen, in general, don’t draw penalties because they’re not the guys buzzing around the net. And they’re always going to take more penalties because they are generally the ones responsible for defending the attacking forwards. And forget about stay at home defensemen… they almost never draw penalties.

by Wooster11 on Jan 7, 2010 1:50 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

This is a good critique; this is a part of a larger metric of player’s values, where I’m trying to figure on what player actions help and hurt their team. Unfortunately, defensemen on on the short end of the stick (pun intended) with this one, but they will likely be vindicated by categories like “blocked shots” or “hits.” That will come later, though.

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 7, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wooster covers what I was thinking, but great analysis nonetheless. Glad to see stat geeks migrating to hockey

I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours

by BoulderDodger on Jan 19, 2010 1:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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