Rich Dad, Poor Dad -- Part 2
Happy Friday, everybody! Time to put on your thinking caps!
A little more than a month ago, I did an exercise comparing Jason Blake and J.S. Giguere's contracts, to show how the "Rich Dad" cap perspective of Toronto differed from the "Poor Dad" cash perspective of Anaheim. The basic idea was that since Toronto was restricted by the salary cap ceiling, they cared about the averaged salary of a player's contract; since Anaheim was not cap-restricted, they cared about the actual cash payouts due a player. Since Giguere's contract was ascending and Blake's contract was descending, the two teams were able to find a "currency exchange" where both teams saved money in future spending.
Today I wanted to look similarly at how Lubomir Visnovsky's contract compares against Ryan Whitney's (numbers courtesy of Capgeek.com). Again, I should throw in the usual caveats: this exercise flat-out ignores how good or useful either player will be for their new team -- it's purely to express one incentive that exists in considering why either team made this trade. Again, Anaheim is the "Poor Dad" -- they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling. Edmonton this time is the "Rich Dad" -- despite awful results, their spending is constricted by the salary cap ceiling.
To the left I've plotted the current contracts for Visnovsky and Whitney, and I apologize that it's a convoluted chart. The height of each bar represents the salary each year of each contract, and the dotted red line represents the salary cap hit for each year of the contract. I have colored each bar by team -- blue bars are years when Edmonton paid the player, orange bars are years when Anaheim paid the player, and yellow represents Pittsburgh. The purple arrows show you which year is current.
The part to pay attention to is really the go-forward point -- the last two years of each contract. Visnovsky will be paid significantly less than his cap hit, and Whitney will be paid significantly more. Because each franchise thinks in different currencies, there is opportunity for both to gain.
Edmonton's currency is cap space, and instead of using $11.2M of cap space the next two seasons on Visnovsky, it gets to spend $8.0M of cap space the next two seasons on Ryan Whitney. In their currency, Edmonton saves $3.2M in future spending. Anaheim's currency is dollars spent, and instead of paying $10.5M the next two seasons on Whitney, it gets to spend $8.0M over the next two seasons on Visnovsky. In their currency, Anaheim saves $2.5M in future spending.
Edmonton is betting that in two years, Ryan Whitney will be a better value at his $4M cap hit than Lubomir Visnovsky will be at a $5.6M cap hit -- that could very well be true. Anaheim is betting that in two years, Lubomir Visnovsky will be a better value at his $3M salary than Ryan Whitney will be at his $5.5M salary -- that also could very well be true.
Of course, it's tough to call anything these days a "win-win" with Edmonton. Lowetide has been on top of this, as always -- they're still so salary-tied that they're pretty fucked for next year, too. So it probably isn't that important that Cotton Gin measure up to Lubo this year, or next year, perhaps -- that final year, can Whitney improve enough to pay off when it matters for the Oil?
It's quite possible; it may even be a solid bet -- I'll do a "Farewell Whitney" post this weekend. I did want to add one kudos to Bruce Banner Bob Murray, though -- it does seem to me that there are lots of "Poor Dad" teams out there, but few seem to be picking off currency exchange opportunities the way Anaheim is lately. Also, very nice of him to pull the deal at the very end of the trading day -- that way there was no opportunity for the Kings to get their revenge and to vindictively trade for Sammy Pahlsson. I don't even want to know what I would have done if that happened.
One of the true benefits to being a long-time blogger is the wonder of archives -- my memory may be going to shit, but it's quite easy to go back and find old notes and whatnot.
So mostly by copying and adding to what I posted last year, here's how the Anaheim Ducks have looked coming out of the past five trade deadlines (it's an annual process). I like snapshotting the roster at this point in time, particularly, because it's probably when things are most essential -- these are the rosters that play the important playoff games.
Now I'm not particularly careful about depth and I'm particularly careless about right-side vs. left-side, but it's still a nice ability to scan year-to-year roster changes. The five guys who have made all five lists are of course Selanne, Marchant, Getzlaf, Perry, and Niedermayer -- nice that these franchise warriors can go down the stretch one final time.
Feel free to nitpick any of my listings, or reminisce about any of the particular stretch-run rosters. The Ducks have 19 games left to get into the playoff picture -- here's how the last four Ducks teams finished over their last 19 games (hint: impressively):
2005-06 Ducks: 12-7-0, 24 pts.
2006-07 Ducks: 12-3-4, 28 pts.
2007-08 Ducks: 14-4-1, 29 pts.
2008-09 Ducks: 12-5-2, 26 pts.
4-year total (76 GP): 50-19-7, 107 pts., .704 win%
Let's hope that late-season Carlyle magic can continue one more time.
Go Ducks.
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I do have a question just for the sake of comparing, what are the 4 year win percentages for the other teams in this lovely division?
For the final 19 games? I can run it, but for the Ducks I was using it more as a point about Carlyle — other teams have switched coaches.
LAK 05-06: 7-12-0
LAK 06-07: 6-9-4
LAK 07-08: 6-9-4
LAK 08-09: 8-9-2
LAK 4YR: 27-39-10, .421 win%
SJS 05-06: 13-4-2
SJS 06-07: 13-2-4
SJS 07-08: 15-2-2
SJS 08-09: 11-7-1
SJS 4YR: 52-15-9, .743 win%
DAL 05-06: 12-4-3
DAL 06-07: 12-4-3
DAL 07-08: 8-9-2
DAL 08-09: 6-9-4
DAL 4YR: 38-26-12, .579 win%
PHX 05-06: 9-9-1
PHX 06-07: 4-13-2
PHX 07-08: 6-11-2
PHX 08-09: 9-8-2
PHX 4YR: 28-41-7, .414 win%
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Interesting
I guess “going into the playoffs hot” doesn’t necessarily translate into playoff performance, ehh? Ducks: hot and good playoffs. Sharks: hot and…no, it hurts too much to type it…
Already this imp is adorable:
“I come to the locker room and I look at the middle. I get a good feeling. I look at the names – Niedermayer, Getzlaf and Perry. Big names, you know? I enjoy this practice. Coach showed me the system and tried to show me everything … it’s different."
But how did everyone enjoy your cookies?
http://www.battleofcali.com/
So cuuuute.
I think my favorite part of that link is the comments. “But to Ahlers credit, my wife is learning the game listening to him and Hazy…” Poor wifey.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Seriously — that’s probably enough harassment to embarrass her from ever golfing from the ladies’ tees.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’d recommend you guys listen to the Fan Forum with Ahlers and Murray and some other guy and they talk to fans for an hour, but I figured you’d have a hemorrhage when you got to the fan who said “We think the TV broadcast guys are just outstanding”, so I won’t. In fact, it’s not a link it’s a Rick Roll, don’t click it.
But I did listen to it and it is a pretty entertaining albeit redundant hour.
"You know? I might not be wealthy or cool or even intelligent," I said to myself. Then I felt like there was more to that sentence, but I guess there wasn’t.
I don’t know if I’ll listen to it — Anaheim Calling has the Cliffs Notes version.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I officially voite this best deadline ever!
Oh and I dunno if you figured it out but Murray was right about Wards cup numbers he won two with Detriot and one with Carolina.
Is he, though? I mean, Detroit won a Stanley Cup in 1998, but Ward didn’t play a single minute of any playoff game.
But sure, he got etched on there — I guess that’s enough.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah, He got the second one by playing enough games in the regular season, but it still counts…
But on the flipside Miller..Drew that is, only played 3 games in the post season and none in the regular season. And got time with the cup( which lead to funny pictures of Ryan Miller trying to keep his distance)
Hey, Drew made a big keep-the-puck-in play for Andy McDonald in the cup finals — I have no problem whatsoever with a top-line fill-in guy getting a day with Stanley.
And yeah, those pictures are awesome — one is feature here.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I had no problems with it either I was just pointing out that you can play in just the post season and get it, so playing in more than half the regular season qualifies ward to his name on the thing.
Different contributions but contributions all the same…
Sure, and I should have added the proper “not his fault” and “definitely I don’t begrudge that” caveats. Still, when we’re talking about a guy’s postseason experience, etc., the years that matter to me are the ones he played in, and that’s still solid — teams he played shifts for got to three cup finals and won twice.
Whether teams won while he was in the pressbox is less important.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah I get what you’re saying, though to be honest I don’t remember watching him in the post season in recent years. Well other than when he got sucker punched. Does anything stick out to anyone else? Or just him getting his face bashed in?
I don’t really have any strong impressions of A. Ward, which could be good or bad.
We’ll see — as always, players get a fresh start with me anyways.
Extremely-corny sidenote: I’m kind of stuck on what to nickname Ward, and it may depend on how he does off the bat. If he’s awful, I may do some sort of wordplay game and call him “Drawback”. Because “Draw” spelled backwards is “Ward”, and yeah, that’s about as lame as it gets… Can’t wait.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Oh, and I don’t even really need to put together a chart for why Bob Murray saved money on the Toskala-for-McElhinney swap. That was savings on the cap and on cash, and I’m not even sure what Calgary picked up besides salary.
Mc79hockey asks the question “Why, Calgary?” on that trade quite effectively.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Its not like he was going to get more than a couple starts….That he would just lose anyways, might as well pay someone a whole lot less to lose those…
…which is exactly what they had pre-trade.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Mar 5, 2010 9:29 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Oh, I was talking about what Calgary had in McElhinney pre-trade, a very cheap guy who could lose games to spell Kipper.
Now they just have a very expensive guy who can do that. And yeah, McE has another year on his deal, but it’s near-league-minimum; Calgary will have to spend at least that on a replacement next year.
That said, McE’s not really an answer for anybody, I don’t think — just if you’re going to pay a guy to be terrible, don’t pay him very much.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
On a side note At least McE can claim he was one of last years Save of the year contestants….Toskala….Well not so much.
Hell McE is playing better hockey than toskala anyways. so we win on that account as well.
Aw man, I just realized something. Mentally I have been crediting Curtis McElhinney for slashing Johan Franzen across the chest in a frustrated playoff-relief play.
I guess I can be excused for misremembering — that was the day of my brother’s wedding, and I was sweating a best man speech — but now it turns out that was Jamie McLellan all along. I totally got my backup Macs mixed up.
Oh well. Welcome anyways, McE. You can slash Franzen later, I guess.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Solid stuff earl. Purdy charts and everything.
Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.
BoC: once a month we’re educational, too!
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Mar 5, 2010 9:30 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Fantastic article, Sleek. Finance & Economics are right inside my daily wheelhouse, and this was an excellent read. Even if it was about the oil & the duck….
2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Mar 5, 2010 11:38 AM PST reply actions
Holy shit, Horcoff has a 5 mil cap hit. Bwwwaahahahaa, Kevin Lowe is a genius.
Don't bRuin your life. Practice safe sex. Make love with a Trojan
Hey guys, what happened last night? I was out of the loop cuz of the Bon Jovi concert, and don’t bother to check scores.
I know the Kings lost….. are we still 4th?
Follow me on Twitter. Please? I need the followers.
@kevinsyoung
I dunno — leaving a comment in the Ducks post is possibly the eighth-slowest way possible to find out.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Mar 5, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This is weird. I went over to the Ducks’ website to see if they’d Photoshopped Lubo into a new jersey yet, and all they had posted for him was this.

In Dinglebarn We Trust
Visnovsky will wear No.17 and Ward has No.4. As of bq. Thursday morning that’s practically all Visnovsky had to wear because only his hockey gear made it en route to Anaheim.
"I need to go shopping today because I need something," Visnovsky said.
hmmm, a naked defenseman, that is something I could get on board with.
Let's go Ducks.
Can it be?
Earl posting a new post on a non-game day… Aside from trades, has this happened at all this season?
Ha — with two games coming up this weekend, I’m already regretting my non-lazy haste! :)
http://www.battleofcali.com/
BTW, if anyone’s flipping channels tonight, don’t forget that NHL Center Ice is still on free preview this weekend — you can tune in now to see Ryan Whitney’s Edmonton debut.
He’s wearing #6, which may be unfamiliar, but he’s a minus-one, which is somewhat more familiar. :)
http://www.battleofcali.com/
One of the only things more painful to watch than Whitney play hockey is to watch the Edmonton Oilers play hockey.
He wasn’t too terrible — one shift he was hemmed in pretty good as if the Wild had a man-advantage, but I’m not sure how common that really is for the Oil this season.
And I was shocked — just as I was bragging to Copper & Blue commenters about how Cotton Gin never hits, he did level a Wild player along the backboards. Maybe it was just debut excitement, but I was shocked.
http://www.battleofcali.com/

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