Battle of California: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Along The Olentangy for Ohio State Fans!

Going Full Nerd: Analyzing the Van-LA Season Series

Folks, I have been places you can not imagine.  Deep inside the internet, where only geeks and perverts dare enter.  Places I've only heard about in whispered tones.  I went... full nerd.  Everyone knows you don't go full nerd, but I did it anyway.  This break is killing me and I can't wait until Thursday to get a Vancouver-Los Angeles match up.  I was poopin' yesterday, thinking about the line ups, and I suddenly realized I'd been in there for 1/2 an hour and I had to hold myself up with my arms for 30 seconds to get feeling back in my legs.  I'm slowly turning into John Nash, writing while I'm driving, talking to imaginary blonde fellows, cheating on my wife... it's an obsession.  Luckily for you, I'm still (barely) coherent enough to deliver my findings.  And down my hole we go...

Basically, I was curious to see how Vancouver and LA had played one another during the regular season.  I used NHL Shift Charts, which should be classified as an addictive substance by the ATF, of the 4 games the two teams played this season (10/29, 11/26, 12/14, 4/1).  I had a hunch the reason the Canucks did so well against the Kings in the regular season was because Ryan Kesler was so effective at stopping Anze Kopitar.  Was that the case?  To find out... read this next word: no.  Or at least, not really. 

Anze Kopitar had 3 points in 4 games against the Canucks and had no plus/minus.  (Had a 0 plus/minus?  Was even?  Whatever, you know what I mean.)  Kopitar averaged about 24 shifts in the 4 games against Vancouver; Kesler was on the ice for about 10 shifts a game.  Isn't that surprising?  It was to me.  I just kind of assumed, "Kopitar's our best forward, Kesler's a great shutdown guy, they'll always square off."  It made sense.  But it looks like Alain Vigneault doesn't really use Kesler consistently against top forwards, or at least against our particular top forward.  But who shut down Kopitar, then?

Star-divide


Willie Mitchell

#8 / Defenseman / Vancouver Canucks

6-3

210

Apr 23, 1977



This guy.  Mitchell was on the ice for about 17 of Kopitar's shifts in the first 3 games of the season series and he did very well.  Mitchell (along with Sammy Salo) effectively shut Kopitar down each game, as Mitchell is one of the few guys in the league with the will and size to get to Kopitar.  Unfortunately for the Canucks, Mitchell is out indefinitely after because of a concussion, a concussion given to him by Evgeni Malkin.  In the 4th game the Canucks didn't have a dedicated pairing shut down Kopitar, instead rotating Christian Ehrhoff and Kevin Bieksa as they saw fit.  The result?  A goal, an assist, and a +2 for our boy Anze.

Kopitar Shifts Shifts v. Mitchell Points +/-
10/29 26 20 0 0
11/26 23 14 0 -2
12/14 25 18 1 0
4/1 23 0 2 2

 

Now, is this important?  Not necessarily.  One thing you'll notice if you look at those shift charts is that when guys "match up" against one another, they're really not playing against each other all that much.  Kopitar, for example, was free from Mitchell almost a quarter of his shifts in the first game.  That's almost 5 minutes of game time.  When people say so and so will match up against what's his face, what they really mean is that they'll play against each other when the coach can make it happen.  A coach isn't going to drastically alter his line changes just for one particular match up, because doing so could screw up the rest of the game. But still, you're talking about the #1 guy against Kopitar and now he's out of the picture.

I think we're going to see a lot more Kesler on Kopitar during the playoffs.  Kesler is good enough offensively that he's not worthless when he's not on the other team's top line; he can score, too.  That's why I think Vigneault doesn't rely on him exclusively to play defense.  This is the playoffs, though, and Vigneault will want to use Kesler's best skill set.  Kopitar won't see Mitchell, though, and I think that could ultimately be a game changer.

***

Terry Murray is different from Alain Vigneault; instead of relying on a shutdown defensive pairing, Murray chooses to rely on a shutdown defensive center.  Michal Handzus is the Kings' defensive ace.  It makes sense if you think about it; why use Doughty exclusively in a defensive role when he's such a  dynamic offensive weapon?  Doughty needs to rest some time, and it's usually at even strength after he's been on the power play.  Handzus, unlike Kesler, isn't a great offensive player and is mediocre when he's not against another team's top line.  When he is, though... he's pretty good.  I feel like he may be getting overlooked.  Here's a chart that details the number of shifts Sedin took in each game, the number of shifts versus Handzus, and Sedin's points and plus-minus:

 

Shifts Shifts v/ Zeus Points +/-
10/29 27 20 1 0
11/26 25 6 2 2
12/14 25 8 1 0
4/1 20 14 1 -1

 

(Note: The 11/26 game is the game where Stoll was out and Brayden Schenn played, so Handzus didn't play nearly as much in the 2nd half of the game (~13 minutes) because I assume Murray wanted to give Schenn and Brad Richardson a look at center.  Sedin played less in the 4/1 game because the score was beyond doubt by the middle of the 2nd.)

As you can probably tell, the first and last games were in LA, while the middle games were in Vancouver.  Henrik is a very good center but Handzus does better against him than I thought.  I assumed Handzus wasn't fast enough to stop Sedin but I think his length and smarts can disrupt the cycle of the Sedin brothers.  Handzus likely won't see Sedin too much in Vancouver (that job will lie with Fro-Stoll-Brown), but at home it should be an exciting match up.  It's not one I'm confident Zeus can win, but I'd like to see him try.

Kopitar v. Kesler (and Salo- Whoever), Sedin v. Handzus (and Scuderi-Doughty*).  Those are the match ups that are going to decide this series.  I know I sound like one of those guys that actually believes The Da Vinci Code is real but I needed to do something.  I mean, I started this and then boom, it's 3 hours later.  That means the games are getting closer.  At least now I feel like I have a handle on how the coaches are going to run their lines.  Now if only I can figure out goaltending...

*puts on goggles

I'm going back in.

 

*I had a whole thing about how originally Johnson went up against Sedin but now it's Doughty but I blacked out and when I woke up my pants were in my mouth so I took that as I sign I needed to stop.  You can look it up yourself, though.

1 recs  |  Comment 34 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Battle of California

Kings Sign Willie Mitchell

Aug 2010 by RudyKelly - 36 comments

The Kings Clinic Series

Jul 2010 by RudyKelly - 45 comments

Season Review: Brayden Schenn

Jun 2010 by RudyKelly - 13 comments

Lists of 3

May 2010 by RudyKelly - 96 comments

Comments

Display:

You’re in too deep to turn back now. If you want to know the real truth about the NHL Code, meet me in that big tree near your house at 7:15. Come alone.

And also, please elaborate on the matchup of Sedin-Handzus, because just based on the numbers you posted it looks like Handzus didn’t do shit. Sedin scored at about his normal points-per-game pace.

Everything sucks except for the Sharks.
http://www.battleofcali.com

by Megalodon on Apr 13, 2010 5:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Shut up.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Apr 13, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

They also barely saw each other in the middle two games. He gave reasons for one, but not the other.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Apr 13, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

As you can probably tell, the first and last games were in LA, while the middle games were in Vancouver.

Vigneault got last change and shifted away from Zeus. I should have been clearer.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Apr 13, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

…just based on the numbers you posted it looks like Handzus didn’t do shit. Sedin scored at about his normal points-per-game pace.

Because the Kings outshot the Canucks 31-15 the first game and won the last game 8-3. I forgot to add that. Fuck this, I’m going back to fart jokes.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Apr 13, 2010 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

We’re just encouraging you to do what you love…

Also, can this fucking break end yet? I need some god damn hockey.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Apr 13, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Go Zeus!

In other news, how awesome are the reaction shots of team representatives who lose the draft lottery?

by Nut on Apr 13, 2010 5:25 PM PDT reply actions  

And how great must Leafs fans be feeling now?

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Apr 13, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

It would have been worse had Kadri been out scored by either in the WHL playoffs. But he wasn’t he was tops. So there was that anyways…

Besides think of how pissed they’d be if they actually won the lottery.

by Steven Hida on Apr 13, 2010 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mitchell is out indefinitely after because of a concussion, a concussion given to him by Evgeni Malkin.

Ugh, that bitch again…

I’m thinking back to the Olympics and I bet we will see the reappearance of SuperZeus, Maker of Goals and Killer of Men. And the heavens shall roar their approval, and something disgusting will happen to your socks, but that last bit won’t make it into poetry.

Team up with Quisp and form a mega-nerd Voltron!

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Apr 13, 2010 5:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Full nerd! Very nice — especially if you’re not sure you’ll like what you find.

No Willie Mitchell is a huge deal, but watch out for that damn Austrian — that fucker nearly scored two hat tricks the last time the Ducks played them.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Apr 13, 2010 5:47 PM PDT reply actions  

that damn Austrian

I had to look it up. I had no idea who you meant. He’s the new Chechoo I guess.

Man, it is going to be a loooong offseason. I think I need to go re-read Rudy’s survival tips.

by GOOLIAN on Apr 13, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

hahaha, not used to seeing people hating our gorgeous Austrian rookie…..

Nucks Misconduct's Official Ambassador, Squid Provider, etc.
GO CANUCKS GO!

by missy on Apr 13, 2010 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

If we had to worry about every person who lit up the Ducks this season we’d have a nervous breakdown..

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Apr 13, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Tru Dat. Besides we bothe know the rook is gonna do jack shit, and the Sedins are gonna crush you, but Its the Playoffs and Luongo=Thorton so you’ll win.

by Steven Hida on Apr 13, 2010 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m not worried about the Sedins. I’m worried about Kesler and Demitra (and Randy Jones)

by Nut on Apr 14, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

No Willie Mitchell...

Yup, that’s why in the last thread, I said that Evgeni Malkin is the Kings’ favorite player (minus the dirty hit on Simmonds last year)…and if Salo goes down, it’ll take a miracle on defense for Van.

Canucks try to get Sedins out against weak competition, and can do that more when at home. Kesler does the heavy lifting. In a sense, Henrik’s “break-out” season is due to Kesler’s break-out season, which my fellow Canuck fans tend to ignore.

by antro on Apr 13, 2010 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know that it worked out to our benefit, but I cannot approve of anything Malkin does. I refuse. Curse be upon his stupid head.

I agree with you on Kesler and Henrik. By the way, does he have a nickname like “The H-Bomb” or something? I feel like I need an easy way to differentiate him.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Apr 14, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Henrik is the ugly one.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Apr 14, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Is that why he works so hard to compensate?

I still say giant stickers on the helmets would be best.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Apr 14, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

we usually call the twins Hank and Dank. burrows sometimes gets thrown in there as Bank, and jannik hansen is sometimes Jank.

Nucks Misconduct's Official Ambassador, Squid Provider, etc.
GO CANUCKS GO!

by missy on Apr 14, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Folks, I have been places you can not imagine. Deep inside the internet, where only geeks and perverts dare enter.

4chan?

I'm here! I know, I brighten the room. Everything's better.

by brokenyard on Apr 13, 2010 6:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Probably. Unless its some hellish place worse than 4chan.

by Steven Hida on Apr 13, 2010 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

To be worse than 4chan is unfathomable.

I'm here! I know, I brighten the room. Everything's better.

by brokenyard on Apr 14, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Speaking of full nerd, one guy I always consult at the start of every playoff series is JavaGeek — I’ve been looking at his updating odds graphics for three-plus years, and I’m still not fully sure what they all mean.

Still, he’s currently got the Sharks as 67% favorites and the Kings as 40% underdogs. He’s usually my starting point at how mathematics views the series, though certainly that’s up for debate.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Apr 13, 2010 8:44 PM PDT reply actions  

Rudy – think about how amazing it is that the Kings have come so far since you posted this little ditty on the Pensblog. That article was how I first stumbled across the BoC thanks to Puck Datty featuring it as a Kings story back in ’08. Superior Kings blogging deserves equal post-season performance. I say…Kings in 6.

and on the 93rd postseason of the National Hockey League, the Slovakian-hockeygod Zeus commanded from high atop Mount Figueroa..."RELEASE THE MEAT TRAIN!" And it was good.

by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 13, 2010 11:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I love the comments. When Rudy exposes himself to strangers, the reactions are hilarious.

I'm here! I know, I brighten the room. Everything's better.

by brokenyard on Apr 13, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

A similar thing happens when he exposes himself at the playground.

Everything sucks except for the Sharks.
http://www.battleofcali.com

by Megalodon on Apr 14, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Damn you Rudy for making me look at Eli. You can almost here the “duhhhh” he’s about to say. Now I have to scrub my eyes with a Brillo pad.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Apr 14, 2010 11:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Makes me think of that episode of “Seinfeld” when Jerry accidentally mocks a handicapped man when his leg falls asleep.

When I'm not battling in California:
Cycle Like The Sedins

by jamestobrien on Apr 14, 2010 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, Eli might be slow, but he also took part in the best win ever. Eat it, Phillip Rivers.

When I'm not battling in California:
Cycle Like The Sedins

by jamestobrien on Apr 14, 2010 9:19 PM PDT reply actions  

Sorry, James. This is the greatest win ever…

and on the 93rd postseason of the National Hockey League, the Slovakian-hockeygod Zeus commanded from high atop Mount Figueroa..."RELEASE THE MEAT TRAIN!" And it was good.

by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 15, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Takes and trash talk from all sides of the NHL's most pathetic* rivalry

* Thanks, Kevin Lowe!
Start posting on Battle of California »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
If Kariya retires, did he have a Hall of Fame career?
Fatkidazdsafas_small
LA's goaltending: Quick/Bernier/ ?
Avatar-body_small
NHL 11 for Spade!! We need your donations!
0107001523_small
What Bobby wanted to say!!
Beavis_and_butthead_mtv_image_1__small
Omegle is undecided about Kariya
Avatar-body_small
Some interesting comments by Randy Youngman
0107001523_small
Talks with Karyia?..would we go penguins?
Hockeyplayers_small
For Those Keeping Score...
Sanjosestate-logo_small
Staring at Boobs
Megalodon_small
Damn you, Sharktopus!

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Marchant is ten points short of five hundred on his career and he'll...
New off-season vehicle for Sharks fans/players?
(seen first at PPP)
I've always thought this was uncanny. In case you've been living under a rock the last 10 years, that's Salma Hayek.
Puppy thrown at German biker gang
Selanne's back, Kariya is possible
Reported: Selanne is Back??
Vancouver hires Brown as assistant
As you all know The Ducks blue line is suffering pretty badly.  Wiz being banished to the Islanders really doesn't help much.  What I'm about to suggest is crazy, probably not legal, and absolutely absurd.  But desperate times call for desperate measures.   

That is a picture of my girlfriend's dog, Mia.  And the holder of that hockey stick is me.  Every once in awhile I'll practice stick handling in my kitchen with a small tennis ball.  The other day, this interested Mia and she sort of made a game out of it.  I try to stick handle around her and she trys to get the ball.  At first this was no challenge to me, but then the little bastard started getting really good.  So, here's my solution:  

The Ducks sign Mia to a 3 year entry level contract.  She can't stick handle, check, pass, shoot, has no concept of what team she's on, and has pretty shitty cardio.  But from a team that once employed the likes of Ryan Whitney and Steve Eminger, this is all easily forgivable.  On the up side, she'll never take a penalty....  Unless they add biting or pissing on the ice to the NHL rule book.  She's relentless....  Unless the opponents all bring bacon which they use as a distraction.
So Cal Wildfires
Stadium Food

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Pacific Standings

GP W L OTL PT
San Jose 82 51 20 11 113
Phoenix 82 50 25 7 107
Los Angeles 82 46 27 9 101
Anaheim 82 39 32 11 89
Dallas 82 37 31 14 88

(updated 4.12.2010 at 6:21 AM PDT)

4 years old and counting!

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Photo +5 updates

SB Nation's Mock NHL Expansion Draft: Winnipeg And Quebec Select Their Teams

NEWARK NJ - JULY 20:  Ilya Kovalchuk of the New Jersey Devils poses for photographs following the media opportunity announcing his contract renewal at the Prudential Center on July 20 2010 in Newark New Jersey.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) +28 updates

Deal With The Devil: Ilya Kovalchuk Saga Over As League, NHLPA Agree On New Contract Rules

Radko Gudas, a 2010 draft selection from the Everett Silvertips, will make his professional debut this season somewhere within the Lightning organization. (Frank Deines III / Everett Silvertips) link

An Interview With Lightning Prospect Radko Gudas

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Meattrain1_small Earl Sleek

Hockeyplayers_small RudyKelly

Marleau_awkward_mustache_small Mike Chen

Editors

San2_small Cheechew

Shark_hat_small pj48

Small jamestobrien

Megalodon_small Megalodon