Sharks caught in the typical conference finals jam

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 12:20 PM PDT

I noted it last night, but the stunning thing about this WCF series is the contrast in power plays: the Sharks' power play has scored 3 goals on 29 shots; the Hawks' power play has scored 2 goals on 2 shots. That's not enough to offset the 5-on-5 disparity -- at even strength the Blackhawks have outscored Patrick Marleau 7 to 2.

But while fate has played these Sharks into a mostly-insurmountable 3-0 hole, I suppose it's worth noting that it's not an uncommon predicament in recent conference finals. In fact, since the lockout 60% of conference finals series have started with one team taking the first three games.

3-0 Conference Finals Leads since the Lockout:

Conference Final	Series after 3 games	Decided in
2006 WCF	EDM 3, ANA 0	5 games
2007 ECF	OTT 3, BUF 0	5 games
2008 ECF	PIT 3, PHI 0	5 games
2008 WCF	DET 3, DAL 0	6 games
2009 ECF	PIT 3, CAR 0	4 games
2010 WCF	CHI 3, SJS 0	???

This is not the same thing as building a 3-0 lead in an opening round series against a playoff pretender; all the teams in this table showed that they could regularly win through two earlier rounds in that playoff year. I'm not sure why the 3-0 conference final lead has become so common lately -- is it a result of early round upsets working their way out of the system, or is it just a case of fatigue kicking in? Maybe it's even just a story about building momentum through two rounds -- one team is better at carrying forward its winning habits.

Going on the precedent of results in the table above, seems that the Sharks are 80% likely to pull a win in G4 and extend the series; going beyond that seems really tough.

Go Summer.

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Also, from a competitor’s angle, it’s nice to see that Marleau, Pavelski, and Setoguchi have put together such nice playoff runs — they are the Sharks’ top three goal scorers this postseason, scoring 54% of San Jose’s postseason goals.

Marleau’s a UFA very soon and Pavelski and Setoguchi are RFAs. Hopefully they have good agents. :)

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 12:35 PM PDT reply actions

So does this mean there is a little sliver of hope??

Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin
"It's getting harder and harder to differentiate between schizophrenics and people talking on a cell phone. It still brings me up short to walk by somebody who appears to be talking to themselves." -- Bob Newhart

by Angy on May 22, 2010 2:10 PM PDT reply actions

Well, almost a little sliver.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions

No

The Flyers already came back form a 3 game deficit last round. There is no chance that 2 teams are going to do that during the same playoffs.

by yankeeken on May 22, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

That doesn’t really make sense.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on May 22, 2010 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Things that don’t affect the probability of other things actually do affect the probability of other things.

Now that that’s cleared up…

Dammit, I've run out of nipple glue! Always at the worst times!

by brokenyard on May 22, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Statistically it does. Last round the Flyer became only the 3rd team in NHL history to come back and from a 3 game deficit. The odds of such a comeback happening again this round are slim to none.

by yankeeken on May 22, 2010 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions

It is.

But it won’t stop me from hoping.

After all, wasn’t it .1% or something (whatever) chance of having all series tied after the first two games in the 1st round?
The odds for this comeback is possibly even slimmer, but eh, that’s where blind faith comes in.

by AppleSweetRose on May 22, 2010 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Statistically it does.

The odds do suck, but I’m inclined to believe that academic Statistics would disagree — these are independent outcomes that don’t impact one another.

The odds of you rolling a six on a die don’t change just because some other dude rolled a six.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Correct.

"The Big Pavelski" sounds like something you'd name your cock.

by brokenyard on May 22, 2010 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Awww, no sweep?

Before last night, I was thinking a sweep would be pretty unsatisfying, but after seeing that water bottle go flying and considering how different this team may look next year, I’ve decided it would be awesome if they didn’t win a single game this round. :-D

Anaheim Calling

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on May 22, 2010 3:39 PM PDT reply actions

I’m not ruling it out — who knows what sort of nonsense Nabby will pull in his last game as a Shark?

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I can’t wait to see what this team looks like without him and Marleau. They could easily not miss a step, but they could also be downright awful. Whatever happens, I don’t see the Sharks getting any farther next year just for lack of this year’s expiring UFA’s. For all his soft goals, Nabby’s a vet, and Marleau has 25 postseason goals and 7 postseason gamewinners since the Lockout.

Anaheim Calling

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on May 22, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions

And I’d think they’d pay to keep Marleau — but it’s really the raises to Pavelski ($1.6 M) and Setoguchi ($1.2 M) that’ll hurt them.

Plus they’ve gotten great mileage this season out of cheap vets Nichol ($0.8 M) and Malhotra ($0.7 M), both UFAs — they’ll probably cost to keep or replace.

Should be fun to watch, sort of like this series.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, with the exception of a subjective view of Nabokov, I think their UFA’s and RFA’s have been some of their strongest post season assets. But if they’re going to make the cap, it’s sophie’s choice time. And I’ll be the one standing behind the Nazis cheering.

Anaheim Calling

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on May 22, 2010 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m not sure I like you anymore

by Angy on May 22, 2010 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

haha, just rivalry talk. I’m waiting for your fellow Sharks fans to join me in the disappointment that is the Giants’ current losing streak.

Anaheim Calling

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on May 22, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions

I’ve just started following the Giants….
/sight. Not a great time to start following them, but oh well :)

by AppleSweetRose on May 22, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions

oh, it’s a good time. You get to see some awesome pitching. Run support on the other hand, you only read about

Anaheim Calling

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on May 23, 2010 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions

ugh! I hate when the season ends and I’m left with only baseball on the tv … makes me want to jump off a cliff

on the brightside, and mind you – there is NO brightside to the end of the season – netflix is full of tv series waiting for me to catch up

by Angy on May 23, 2010 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Dumb Hawks….fabulous cartoon.

Come on Sharks….win game 4…not ready for it to be over yet. :)

*******Lets Go Marleau*******

by Sharkgirl on May 22, 2010 5:47 PM PDT reply actions

Don’t sweat it — I’ve found out they’ll play on without you. :)

I wasn’t ready for the Ducks’ season to be over last December, but so it goes.

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Same.

Great cartoon (I actually like all of his cartoons??).

But… dammit. There’s still hope!

by AppleSweetRose on May 22, 2010 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions

(I actually like all of his cartoons??)

Heh, I don’t think I can even say that. Some of them have looked a lot better imagined than drawn out. :)

"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on May 22, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Haha that’s because artists are their own worst critics.
And well, even if the drawing is a tad bit wacky at times, it adds to the charm! I couldn’t draw cartoons for the life of me; look at my own shaky shark →
Besides, I don’t think cartoons draw so much on the drawing itself as in the humour (see cyanide, haha).

by AppleSweetRose on May 22, 2010 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions