Sharks Salary Cap'n Crunch
by Megalodon on May 25, 2010 10:38 PM PDT
Email
Print
Did I tell you guys that I got hired as the GM for the Sharks? Well I did, and here's how I answered the salary cap questions. You're welcome.
Thanks to capgeek.com, of course.
| 2010-11 San Jose Sharks | ||
| PLAYER | BONUS | CAP HIT |
|---|---|---|
| FORWARDS | ||
| Dany Heatley | — | $7,500,000 |
| Joe Thornton | — | $7,200,000 |
| * Patrick Marleau | — | $6,800,000 |
| * Joe Pavelski | — | $4,000,000 |
| Ryane Clowe | — | $3,625,000 |
| * Devin Setoguchi | — | $3,000,000 |
| Torrey Mitchell | — | $1,366,667 |
| Logan Couture | ($425,000) | $1,241,667 |
| Jamie McGinn | ($290,000) | $996,667 |
| Benn Ferriero | ($215,000) | $850,000 |
| * Scott Nichol | — | $750,000 |
| * Manny Malhotra | — | $700,000 |
| * Jed Ortmeyer | — | $550,000 |
| * Dwight Helminen | — | $500,000 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Dan Boyle | — | $6,666,667 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | — | $3,100,000 |
| Douglas Murray | — | $2,500,000 |
| Kent Huskins | — | $1,700,000 |
| Nick Petrecki | ($350,000) | $1,125,000 |
| Jason Demers | — | $543,333 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| Alex Stalock | ($65,000) | $850,000 |
| Thomas Greiss | — | $550,000 |
| BUYOUTS | ||
| NONE | ||
| LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS | ||
| NONE | ||
| CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS | ||
| ROSTER SIZE | 22 | |
| SALARY CAP | $56,800,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $56,115,000 | |
| BONUSES | $1,345,000 | |
| CAP SPACE | $2,030,000 | |
|
|
||
AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Dany Heatley ($7.500m) / Joe Thornton ($7.200m) / * Patrick Marleau ($6.800m)
* Joe Pavelski ($4.000m) / Ryane Clowe ($3.625m) / * Devin Setoguchi ($3.000m)
Torrey Mitchell ($1.367m) / Logan Couture ($1.242m) / Jamie McGinn ($0.997m)
Benn Ferriero ($0.850m) / * Scott Nichol ($0.750m) / * Manny Malhotra ($0.700m)
* Jed Ortmeyer ($0.550m) / * Dwight Helminen ($0.500m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Boyle ($6.667m) / Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m)
Douglas Murray ($2.500m) / Kent Huskins ($1.700m)
Nick Petrecki ($1.125m) / Jason Demers ($0.543m)
GOALTENDERS
Alex Stalock ($0.850m) / Thomas Greiss ($0.550m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
ROSTER: 22; PAYROLL: $56.115m; CAP ROOM: $2.030m BONUSES: $1.345m
- Pavelski gets resigned for $4.0m, up from his $1.75m, which is more than fair.This amount should be plenty to keep him in San Jose. Compare Mike Richards at $5.75m and Martin Havlat at $5m. Pavelski may be there someday but he certainly isn't yet.
- Setoguchi gets $3m, up from $1.2m, which is right in line with his performance. He's got potential to be a guy that gets paid more, but until he delivers consistently he won't be getting it.
- Guys like Nichol and Malhotra will hopefully stay with the club for the same reduced rates, but could likely ask for more based on their post-season play. If this happens the club should try and keep them but they aren't the same critical priorities as the young offensive talent. In my list above I have them resigning for the same amount they received this past season. If Wilson can get Pavelski and Setoguchi to sign for less (I think he probably can) then throw the extra money at these guys because I loved having them on the team.
- Marleau gets $6.8m, up from his current $6.3m. All signs point to him and his family wanting to stay in San Jose, and a modest increase in pay will likely keep him.
- The biggest question mark is, obviously, in goal. Nabokov has been an incredibly steady and reliable regular season goalie for years, and I appreciate his service for the Sharks, but it's time to move on. If Nabokov had more years on his contract I would be happy to keep him, but since it's decision time then we have to think about his relative value in years to come. You have to think about the opportunity cost of signing Nabokov, and since it would likely mean losing some combination of Marleau, Pavelski, and Setoguchi it isn't worth it.The Sharks are going to have to deal with life Post-Nabby at some point, so why not now? Why risk losing quality young offensive talent in order to get a few more seasons out of a declining Nabokov when the team needs to start seriously examining their other goaltending options?
- With the numbers I put together above, the team still has a couple of million to throw at some mostly washed-up goalie with a proven track record, but I'll play goalie myself before we sign Marty Turco.
- Jewels from the Crown (Kings fans need to mind their own business) broke it down slightly differently, assuming the Sharks could sign Nabokov for $3m. At that price I might do it, if we got to keep the other players, but I'm not sure how realistic that would be. Even if Nabby's back I don't want him playing more than fifty games. We need to see what else is coming down the pipe for this team in net.
- You can never underestimate what Doug Wilson can get done. He's an elite GM and has done an amazing job. I'm not at all worried about how this will shake out, because he's done nothing to make me question him.
- I've never paid any attention to this salary cap stuff outside of an EA Sports game, so I'm probably doing ton of shit wrong and being completely unrealistic about everything. Feel free to savage me in the comments - it's the only way I'll learn.
136 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Sick write-up.
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" club.
Fear the Fin: Where Sharks Fans Aren't Like Other Sharks Fans.
by SharksFanEst.1994 on May 25, 2010 10:47 PM PDT reply actions
Forgot to add more so here goes:
Just one question, if they have about 2M in cap space, do you see them adding another defensemen?
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" club.
Fear the Fin: Where Sharks Fans Aren't Like Other Sharks Fans.
by SharksFanEst.1994 on May 25, 2010 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions
That would certainly be a good use of the extra money. I feel good about Boyle, Vlasic, and Murray, but after that the D is very questionable.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
mmmmm
Close…but I’d like to see more money going to Manny and Scotty. They were great this season and deserve to see more for their efforts. If you trade Heater altogether you will have enough $$ to keep Manny and Scotty around ;) Heater is a bit over paid based on his performance. He really nose dived towards the end of the season. Yes I know he was injuried but still WAY overpaid.
I would get rid of Benn Ferriero there is no way he should be making more than Demers…
As a Sens fan, I figured I’d remind you that Heatley has a NTC… and isn’t afraid to use it.
Edmonton, anyone?
You can’t carry a NTC after being traded. See: Lubo Visnovsky as an example.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 7:49 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Lubo was traded before his NTC kicked in, so I think the Oilers had the option of honoring it or not. Since Heatley was traded while his NTC was in effect, I think it’s still there.
(I looked this up to see if the Kings could trade Ryan Smyth.)
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
It’s not truly a NTC if a team has an option to ignore it. The Kings could trade Smyth, but they’d need to find a real sucker.
Might want to call Brian Burke.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 8:08 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Trading Heatley would free up seven million, which is WAY more than it would take to keep Malhotra and Nichol. I’m not in favor of it though – he was injured all through the playoffs, which isn’t his fault. He looked like he was really trying out there.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Nichol can probably be signed for the same amount…but no possible way Malhotra signed for less than 1.5M per year, IMO. He took a drastic one year paycut to join us this year to try and win a cup. Don’t see him doing that again.
I also don’t think Petrecki will be ready for the blueline, from what I’ve heard.
Rolling with Greiss/Stalock is definately one way to go! Maybe one gets hot and leads us to the promised land. Either way, its time to get the new era in net started…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 25, 2010 11:23 PM PDT reply actions
Why doesn’t Nichol get a raise? I’d pay him more to be a Duck, I think.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 3:42 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, he definately could get a raise. I just think the Sharks won’t have to give him a raise. He’s 35. Everyone knows what he can do, and he’s been doing the same thing for years now, in about the same payscale…he’s made 750,000 each of the last 3 years.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Veteran = Valuable.
If he doesn’t care about dollars, I guess he might not negotiate with anybody else. But now we’re talking about multiple people that hopefully love San Jose enough not to leverage UFA potential.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 5:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Eh, in my view, I see possibly two…Nichol (who really isn’t that big a stretch…since he’s been at this price for years and is only going to get older…maybe a bump up to an even million), and possibly Marleau (although I’m pretty skeptical on this one…why would he give us a hometown discount after we stripped him of the C and basically pinned the Ducks debacle on him?).
If someone wants to pay 1.5 or 2 million a year for Nichol’s services, I’m fine with the Sharks letting him walk. He was getting no more than 8 minutes of ice time down the stretch in the playoffs. I like the guy, but not that much…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t go near 2M, but I could definitely offer him 1M, maybe even with a silly bonus clause. For one, cap is higher than it was three years ago — his stagnant salary has been falling relative to others’. Also, I wouldn’t mind taking him out of SJ’s bargain bin.
Make Doug squirm a bit — that’s not a bad strategy for other western GMs, I think.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 6:03 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I could see Nichol getting 900k from SJ. Malhotra should be in the 1.5 range.
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
But now we’re talking about multiple people that hopefully love San Jose enough not to leverage UFA potential.
This is true. You’d be quite the fool to pin your hopes on multiple people that love Anaheim San Jose enough not to retire leverage UFA potential!
(I completely agree with Earl, by the way, I just like striking things.)
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
Shit, caught in my own self-lie.
Still, I’m not fully delusional. I have given Aaron Ward permission to retire.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 8:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s true. Other teams can always come in and try to grab our bargains…assuming DW doesn’t get to them before July 1 (which is probably a safe bet on some of our UFAs…only so much he can do between now and then). I guess we’ll see. I just don’t see it taking a raise to keep Nichol here if DW wants him to stay. Of course, that’s just a guess, based on the assumptions and data I presented above.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't expect Marleau to take a home town discount
The hope is he takes a Zetterberg or Savard deal where he personally expects to retire before it expires and lowers his cap hit to help the team. He’ll still get paid now, but it won’t hurt us on paper.
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
San Jose would go the “rich dad” route? How wealthy is the owner? What would SJ like to spend on payroll if there were no cap?
Sounds costless, but expect ticket hikes if they’re pursuing a spend-more-than-CBA-would-like roster strategy.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 6:11 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
We got 2 rounds of WCF’s to cover some of the costs this year. The whole group actually does fairly well and ticket prices are already announced for next year.
Plus, we only had to pay half of Heatley’s salary this year, so… 4 mil in savings right there we can contribute to sorta overpaying Marleau now.
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
I may have to take a look at what SJ spent cash-wise this year. Unless they really are going all-in, I’d probably expect next year’s cashflow to run similarly.
Cap math matters for sure when you’re at the ceiling, but I’m sure there’s parties way more interested in actual paycheck amounts than averaged-salary-pretend-spending.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 6:20 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I’d be interested to seeing what the actual numbers look like. I’m not really sure what San Jose’s internal cap is on player expenditures. That’s a very good point on whether or not a long term, front loaded deal for Marleau will even be on the table…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's my proposed roster with what I believe would be a rather improved defense.
Unfortunately it depends on either waiving or trading Huskins without any other roster players.
I also don’t think Stalock should be brought up yet. This was his first year in pro hockey. Despite his large win total, his save percentage was not very high, and it would be good to give him another year in the AHL. I also think that any other prospect on the Worcester Sharks is much more likely to make the NHL team than Petrecki. By all accounts he’s had a horrible year in Worcester and probably should have been playing in the ECHL. It’s still far too early to call him a bust, but him playing in the NHL next year would require some miraculous offseason development.
FORWARDS
Dany Heatley ($7.500m) / Joe Thornton ($7.200m) / * Patrick Marleau ($6.000m)
- Joe Pavelski ($3.625m) / Ryane Clowe ($3.625m) / * Devin Setoguchi ($3.000m)
Torrey Mitchell ($1.367m) / * Manny Malhotra ($1.250m) / Logan Couture ($1.242m)
Jamie McGinn ($0.997m) / Benn Ferriero ($0.850m) / * Brad Staubitz ($0.550m)
John McCarthy ($0.550m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Boyle ($6.667m) / * Dan Hamhuis ($4.000m)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m) / Douglas Murray ($2.500m)
Jason Demers ($0.543m) / Mike Moore ($0.512m)
GOALTENDERS - Dan Ellis ($2.000m) / Thomas Greiss ($0.550m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $57.628m; CAP ROOM: $0.102m BONUSES: $0.930m
Geez, you’re really hoping that the cap literally doesn’t move an inch.
Which maybe it won’t — NHL seems delusional enough.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 3:39 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Historically the cap has increased each season, correct? Some seasons it increased in millions and some in the thousands? Do you think it will be another big year?
The Sharks need to play like 2 Live Crew, "As Nasty As They Want To Be" -Drew Remenda
by 408SharksFinatic on May 26, 2010 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that’s largely because the original CBA structured the cap ceiling math in a way that almost had to ascend. But those mechanics are largely out of the way, and for certain the economy has stagnated.
They may artificially keep the ceiling where it is to keep teams from killing themselves, but I suspect if a heartless computer picked the cap ceiling based on expected revenue, it’d drop next year.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I was reading articles that the NHL front office is hinting that it looks like the cap will go up about 1 mil this year.
I don’t see it falling off at all.
Fun fact, the Blackhawks are currently over the current cap for next year with only 14 players signed
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
Really? I haven’t paid great attention, but I’ve seen teams complain and I’ve seen empty seats and I don’t know where Phoenix is playing next year.
Nobody has ever accused the NHL for being overly honest and forthright, though. They might lie their way right up to the next lockout before actually admitting any problems — by then, I’ll expect them to be tremendous and season-cancelling.
Sigh.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 26, 2010 6:27 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I picked Patrecki just cause he’s making too much money for an AHL guy, so I wanted him to be contributing to the big club if he could. I’d be fine plugging in whoever the best young defenseman is at training camp though.
And that’s not a bad roster at all, though like Earl says there isn’t much wiggle room.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Petrecki- unfortunately no chance
Petrecki was scratched from most meaningful games for Worchester this year, I don’t even know if he played in a playoff game. I’m a huge fan of his, and hope he becomes a solid NHLer, but he’s just not ready. He’s behind Moore and Joslin on the depth chart right now.
And Petrecki’s deal is entry-level, which means it’s two-way. He’s not making a million dollars down there, only if he comes to the bigs. If anything, that fact makes him more likely to stay down.
Um he’s on an ELC, which is a two way contract. These young guys are not getting paid seven figure salaries when in the AHL.
FWIW I don’t see Marleau taking $6mil, unless you’re thinking of one of those let’s-see-how-long-it-takes-the-NHL-to-notice-we’re-ninjaing-the-salary-cap things.
I’ll be the first to admit that he totally surprised me with his performance this year. He’s in the market for close to $7mil IMO. If this was like 2 or 3 years from now and us Ducks didn’t have Koivu (who’s most likely returning) then I’d throw something at him. We’re the Ducks though, we seem to snuggle with the cap on the reg.
Other than Scott & Teemu’s semi-retirements and the ensuing year of double-spending (having both guys and their replacements), for the most part the Ducks have been comfortably separated from the cap ceiling, as they should be.
They have their own budget, for sure, but I haven’t had to do cap math for Anaheim in years now. For the Ducks I can simply add up actual, not annualized, salaries — that’s the primary currency for mid-spending Anaheim.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 27, 2010 1:45 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You're right
I should have been more clear. It seems like every year we are close to the “Samueli Cap” which is more important since that’s where the money comes from lol.
We have been within a couple million of the Salary Cap though, which to me is close. I guess in reality it’s not all that close though.
It’s close enough to theoretically compete; not close enough that I’m going to revert to imaginary averaged-salary math. :)
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on May 27, 2010 2:58 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Earl…. What do you see happening with Scott Niedermayer this offseason? Retirement, back with Ducks, or free agency?
just curious… since you brought his name up.
by skilletboy on May 27, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
If he hasn’t retired yet, he’s not retiring.
Well, at least that’s what I mumble to myself before going to bed.
And if he’s not retiring, I have to think he’s back with Anaheim — where else would he really want to go? Maybe Vancouver, I guess, but he seems to indecisive for drastic changes like that.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
i think you need to add somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0M to each of Setoguchi and Pavelski. Sure, its REASONABLE that they would get 3 and 4M, but thats awfully low knowing that they are very very likely to outperform those salary numbers for probably, what, 75% of the duration of the contracts? It would likely depend on term involved too. If you start eating up a kid’s UFA years, you’re talking about years which are extremely valuable to him, because he could potentially be chasing that 6+/yr number in those years. I don’t know how long each has till UFA status, but if these contracts expire allowing them to immediately be UFA-eligible of their own choosing per the contracts expiring, then maybe you could get them for those prices. Whether that’s a good choice for the team or not becomes a very interesting question. Keeping them cheaper now helps extend the current Cup window, but it means they’re going to get well paid sooner, which could potentially hurt the window and roster flexibility down the line.
I’m guessing Pavelski at 4.75M seems pretty right to me. Setoguchi probably gets more like 3.5. Also, I don’t know whats up with your numbers above, but it reads Salary Cap at 56.8, Payroll at 56.1, but somehow that equates to over 2M in cap space? As Greiss and Stalock seems like asking to not have good goaltending next year – you’ll want the room to get a goalie at some point in the year, in case either/both of the kids aren’t stable enough to want to risk a Cup contention season on.
Nabby at 3M is a joke, unless you give him one of those front loaded 15 year deals. I think 3M is right about what he should be paid, but you gotta remember you’re talking about NHL GM’s here. I bet Kevin Lowe gives him 9M/yr.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Yeah I don’t think Nabokov at anything less than $4m is realistic, but I also don’t think Nabokov at anything more than $3m is worth it, so that’s why I’m not counting on him being around.
And yeah the cap numbers come out weird because it’s leaving space for the bonuses the players could earn, I think.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
I think 4m for Pavs is an over payment.
by skilletboy on May 26, 2010 11:28 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
really? I’d take a whole line of em at 4M a piece. Given his ability to do damn near anything (PK, PP, great faceoffs, can put up some points), he’s a damn good value at 4M. Why do you think its an overpayment?
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
haha
hell yeah, i’d love my top 6 forward lines to be all Pavelskis at 4 million each. that’s a deal. At that price we could probably afford our top 3 forward lines to be all Pavelskis lol. I bet they would wreck shit.
Well you also have to consider, full lines of Pavelskis would have cycling abilities greater than the Sedins! While the Sedins are almost kinda sorta but not quite the same exact person, 3 Joe Pavelskis on one line ARE. So they know exactly what each is going to do, even better than twins! This mean’s you could legitimately expect a huge increase in scoring, because the all-Pavelski line would have unparalleled passing ability.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Yeah I don’t think Nabokov at anything less than $4m is realistic, but I also don’t think Nabokov at anything more than $3m is worth it, so that’s why I’m not counting on him being around.
I’d agree with that 100%. You can get a Dan Ellis or something for that kind of price range, and get pretty close to the same performance.
And yeah the cap numbers come out weird because it’s leaving space for the bonuses the players could earn, I think.
That doesn’t seem right to me… The way bonuses work is that bonuses achieved in a given year are counted onto NEXT year’s cap. But – this is the last year of this current CBA, unless they choose to extend it (I think its the NHLPA that has that option, not the NHL), which I think means all bonuses count to this year or something like that – I’d have to go find the appropriate text again. The idea being that it keeps teams from being able to push competitive advantage now to be handled in a new, potentially more favorable CBA going forward. I don’t know how long the NHLPA has to do this, or if they might want to hurry up and do it before July 1, because I know the bonus structures DO change for this year, if its the last year. But I know that some situation does exist which complicates bonuses this year due to the CBA.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Those are far too many business words for me to process or to care about.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
I believe you’re correct, Joe, except for your love for Dan Ellis (I kid — he’s fine). Bonus cushion is likely to not exist this coming season, which means big rookies and older one-year folks may not be as bargain-ish as in years past. Performance bonus clauses, even if realistically unattainable, still could prove a big obstacle.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Thank you, Earl. I’m not 100% sure if the NHLPA extending the CBA actually fixes the problem or not though. I’m guessing it does.
It may seem like a little thing, but it adds up. Especially when a team is sitting against the cap like Calgary (LOL) or Detroit have the last couple seasons, whether they’re handcuffed just to try and juggle injuries and such normally, to start having to handle those bonuses differently… 500K here, 500K there, 500K over there, all of a sudden a Nancy Kerrigan incident resulting in LTIR for your 2M 3rd liner starts looking pretty tempting…
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
I believe you’re correct, Joe, except for your love for Dan Ellis (I kid — he’s fine).
Joe probably just reads Ellis’ twitter.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
I’ve been meaning to get on Twitter – I see some of the back forth going on on sites that have their twitter feed embedded into the website, looks like some fun discussion going on. I would just feel like a douchebag making a twitter account, because I’m a pretty boring and regular dude – frankly, I think anyone who would follow me would have to be some sort of creeper retard.
I’m mostly a fan of cheap goaltending, is all. That guys like Biron get hosed, but Khabibulin got the Kevin Lowe treatment – it’s just positively mystifying that NHL GM’s can’t figure out what people in their mother’s basements already have.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Especially after this season and the goaltenders that made the biggest post-season impact, I think everyone is going to wake up about goalies.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Then my dream of James Mirtle or Tyler Dellow or Gabe Desjardins being handed the reigns to a franchise by a Canadian Mark Cuban (probably Jim Balsillie) are likely for naught. Damn.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Thank you, Earl. I’m not 100% sure if the NHLPA extending the CBA actually fixes the problem or not though. I’m guessing it does.
Correct — so long as there is a concrete “next year” covered under the current CBA, then bonus cushions exist. If it is in any way in limbo, then they must count against the current cap.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I think those numbers for Pavelski and Setoguchi are perfectly fair, but you just need one desperate GM to set off an offer sheet bomb in your plans. And with the limited cap room you’ve set aside, and the possibility of acquiring a legit goaltender (which I think Wilson will want to do) still on the table, Pavelski and Setoguchi could easily get a 4.5M offer (which is only 1st and 3rd round pick compensation) or more (which would be at least 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick compensation).
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on May 26, 2010 2:07 AM PDT reply actions
I have a feeling the Sharks will lock up Pavelski and Setoguchi before July 1…to make damn sure offer sheets are not an issue. I hope that’s what they do, anyways.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
kent huskins earning 1.7…tee-hee!!!
2009-2010 Anaheim Ducks.."Hey at least were not the sharks!!"
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on May 26, 2010 5:06 AM PDT reply actions
Your defense and goaltending sucks pretty hard. And you think a 30-year old Patrick Marleau is worth $6.8 million dollars a year?
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
Yeah I do. That’s what Kopitar gets and Marleau scored more points than him.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
I think $6.8 might be a bit too much. I’m expecting him to sign a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of Savard’s and Zetterberg’s contracts – long, but a good salary cap hit, like 5.5M or so. Savard’s hit is 4M. Zetteberg’s is around 6M.
Datsyuk’s hit is 6.7M, but he’s Datsyuk.
Fear the Fin - all Evgeni, all the time.
That’s what Kopitar gets and Marleau scored more points than him.
I guess that means you should pay him $8.7 million then, since that’s what Malkin makes and Marleau outscored him too.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
Wow that sucks. Marleau was awesome bang for the buck.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Rudy’s saying he should be even cheaper and you’re fighting it. You’re weird.
"The Big Pavelski" sounds like something you'd name your cock.
Hey I would love to get Marleau for cheaper, I’m just going with what I think is a conservative, realistic estimate.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Agree
I’d give Patty 6m no more. 5m would be great.
I think his desire to retire in SJ is huge and can be taken advantage of.
I
by skilletboy on May 26, 2010 11:30 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
He should retire now to ensure nothing goes wrong on that desire. :)
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I think his desire to retire in SJ is huge and can be taken advantage of.
I keep hearing this but I’ve never seen any evidence of it besides, “I like San Jose.”
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
Marleau signed a contract extension last time rather than testing what he could get on the open market, and has never held out, unlike Nabokov.
He’s also played for the team since 1997 without ever complaining to the media or seeking any sort of trade, and has always signed for a reasonable amount. We can’t know much from the outside, obviously, but everything we DO know points towards him being happy in San Jose.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
That’s he’s been such a good sport about taking what’s fair instead of pushing for more, always keeping his mouth shut, etc. makes it especially puzzling to me the way he’s been so consistently shit on down there. I’ve always loved Marleau, and have been a Marleau defender for years when it comes to the playoffs. Why he catches an inordinate amount of shit, and even more, why he continues to put up with it, I just don’t understand. If I were him, I’d have told the Sharks to fuck off. But I’m an asshole.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
He doesn’t get crapped on all the time, just part of the time. He sometimes gets criticism for his lack of consistency, which is legitimate, but the relationship with the team has been mostly positive and, aside from the same asshole people that ruin everything everywhere, he’s loved by the fans. He holds all the team records and is the only real link to the Sharks’ past that they have anymore.
The captaincy thing sucked and I didn’t like how it went down, but I feel like that was about taking the pressure off of Marleau as much as anything else. He’s proven that it doesn’t matter to him one way or another.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Yeah that’s what worries me. Most people other than Marleau (hopefully) would be seeing greener grass in LA with the Kings, and a fresh start; they’d also be thinking,“The Sharks are cursed, they embarassed me by taking away my C, and now they have the balls to expect me to take a ‘hometown discount’??”
So basically you’re taking advantage of a quiet, neurotic boy who doesn’t know any better. You people make me sick.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
naw i dont think so..LA fans arent that rabid…when expectitations are low and your team sucked for so many years you dont ride your own players that much…a place like toronto or montreal would eat him up…now if he ventured down santa monica…the local wildlife might
2009-2010 Anaheim Ducks.."Hey at least were not the sharks!!"
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on May 26, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
That’d be hilarious if he signed with LA and suddenly they were doing magazine features on this quiet hockey star who can’t play for shit anymore because he’s always getting hammered in Lemmy’s apartment while trying to learn guitar.
Not that lives crushed by substance abuse is funny…
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
by Dominik on May 26, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not the fans – the city. Marleau couldn’t handle the fast-paced life of Los Angeles. Poor little guy.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
This is very close to I see things shaking out
Re: Goaltending
I’m all for going with the rookies, at least at the start. I’m sure if you asked Philly and Chicago if they would have thought that Leighton, Boucher, and Niemi could cary them to the Cup finals, each would have said no. I think Greiss could be an average goaltender with regular playing time, with great upside as he has incredible reflexes and lateral movement. Positioning and consistency are his problems. Stalock looks like a guy that could come in and play well, too, behind a good team. His mental game seems strong from the reports I’ve seen.
Re: Marleau, Pavs and Seto
Pavs and Seto will likely get a bit more (and I am really hoping a team like the Islanders don’t drop a 4yr/22mil offer on Pavs’ lap) but I actually think Marleau will take a paycut to $5.5-$6mil. So overall I agree with you, meg, on the outcome.
Re: The Defense
If we have extra cap space, I would love to trade Murray and a 2nd rounder for a better top 3 Dman, a Dan Hamhius type to play with Boyle. Stick Demers with Vlasic (the played well together early in the season) and go with Huskins and either Mike Moore or Derek Joslin on the 3rd pairing. Even then, there should be a little cap room left at the deadline to pick up a Dwayne Roloson type if Stalock and Greiss stink it up.
I’d hate to see Murray go, but this sounds pretty reasonable overall.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Nooo wayyy. Murray is one of our best D-men at the moment and he’s been improving rapidly. If anything, get rid of Petrecki, bring up Joslin, and trade Huskins + a 1st (if necessary, hopefully not) for a stud like Volchenkov.
No one’s going to have to trade anything for Volchenkov or Hamhuis. They are free agents. It’s just about cap space. And if we’re trading off spare parts for cap space to sign these people, DW better not be giving up any draft picks to do so.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
oh what?
Volchenkov is a UFA? Isn’t he still in his 20’s? I thought he was still an RFA that we’d have to trade for.
He’s 28…and he’s a UFA. He’ll be pretty highly sought after…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
It all depends on the ELC and RFA contracts they sign. It varies person to person.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Good work… but I’ve never heard of Alex Stalock, honestly. Looks like he had a good season with Worcester. Not really sure how much Greiss has proved in the NHL… I know Nabokov isn’t the amazing, hall-of-fame goaltender Sharks fans would like him to be, but if they don’t bring him back, I can’t see them going THAT young in goal (24 yrs and 22 yrs).
The “formula” they currently have hasn’t gotten them a Cup. It hasn’t even gotten them to the Finals, so logic says they need to make some changes to get there. But I honestly think not bringing back Nabokov, and going to youth and (relative) inexperience would hurt more than help.
Marleau is a UFA, and Pavelski and Setoguchi are both RFAs. That’s a lot of money, at LEAST $12M, maybe $14M. And Thornton’s a UFA after next season, so it’s a tricky situation. Somehow, my gut tells me they’ll bring back Nabokov and let Marleau walk.
Denis Gauthier sucks at hockey... and life.
Marleau is a UFA, and Pavelski and Setoguchi are both RFAs. That’s a lot of money, at LEAST $12M, maybe $14M. And Thornton’s a UFA after next season, so it’s a tricky situation. Somehow, my gut tells me they’ll bring back Nabokov and let Marleau walk.
Crazy talk.
No way DW takes Nabby over Marleau, assuming Marleau is willing to sign for a reasonable price. Also, I doubt Jumbos cap hit would go up much, if at all next year; he might even do one of those 10 year front loaded deals and his cap hit would go down.
Re: Jewels from the Crown
I believe that post was contrasting the Sharks’ situation with that of the Hawks — “the Sharks basically have the option of staying pat” whereas the Hawks obviously can’t, because they’ve already spent themselves into a heap of trouble. So the Nabby at 3m situation would be option A, but if he can’t/won’t do that, you hire someone cheaper (option B). Not going higher than 3 mil allows the team to keep the more important players. And that’s only if the GM wants to stand pat. At least, that’s how I read it.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
What about Karlsson?
No ones talkin about him. I know we don’t know much about him but he has some serious potential. The dude is 6’ 6". He could block any shot that doesn’t go high with his eyes closed.
Here’s the google translation of his player bio from eliteprospects.com:
Henrik Karlsson is a modern, stable and mobile goalie. Good position game. Good to cover large areas which is something he wishes to use his size. Good for ice. Quick glove. Shortcomings in the game with the hammer. Latebloomer with calm and composed style of play.
Now i dunno what “the hammer” is, but a 6’6" “composed”, “mobile”, butterfly goalie who has good positioning and a quick glove sounds fucken amazing to me. Maybe the Hammer means his stick, maybe he’s not a good puck handler or something but that isn’t a big deal.
Holy crap, this is a comedy goldmine. Quick, translate a bunch more foreign player profiles!
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Maybe they use hammers to play hockey wherever he is from? Also, Nabokov has sucked at puckhandling for years, so that’s nothing new.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
He’ll need to come here and play in the AHL and get used to the North American sized rinks and game before he’s really ready to compete for a spot in San Jose. He’s one to keep an eye on, for sure…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Manny for under a Mil?
Don’t see it. He signed a one-year deal for a reason. He’s gonna want over $1M to stay.
Arey you seeing Stalock as a starting goalie for the Sharks?
Yeah losing Malhotra is actually the thing I’m most likely to be sad about after this off-season. I think we will keep Marleau and I’ve made my peace with Nabby leaving, but I want to keep Manny.
And I’m willing to give Stalock a shot.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Been wondering who will give Malhotra a fat raise
The Islanders have a lot of subfloor cap room they are required to burn, plus a need for someone of Malhotra’s competence. Of course, maybe he enjoys things like “playoffs” and “chance to win.”
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
The Thrashers offered him 2 million a year for 4 years last offseason…and he chose to take a paycut to join San Jose to get a chance at a Cup. I doubt he does that again…and should command at least 1.5 a year, IMO.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Your numbers are all fine and good but the problem is, other than loosing Nabakov this is pretty much the same team that lost to the Hawks a week ago. If the plan is to continuing to loose in the conference finals (at best) then it’s a working system but I’d think the team wants to do more than that.
Wilson needs to try something more drastic and work on a mini-rebuild.
try trading for hossa…at least youll be guaranteed to get to the finals
2009-2010 Anaheim Ducks.."Hey at least were not the sharks!!"
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on May 26, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Well you can always make moves before the deadline later in the season but there’s still potential for the team to improve; not just individually but through different/better line combinations, building better chemistry, and maybe a little luck and a different goaltender would’ve been all we needed last week anyways. Plus Heatley not being injured would be a big improvement in itself.
I think the Sharks showed they were the second-best team in the league this year. Since we know the Blackhawks will have to make a bunch of changes, the Sharks should try to stay as close as possible to what’s brought them success and that might be good enough to get the job done next year.
Drastic moves are not Wilson’s way, and I don’t understand why people think the Sharks need to do something major after this really successful season.
They call me Patrick Marleau, P.I.
Battle of California
Second-best? I think they’ll have the fourth-best series against the Hawks this postseason when all is said and done.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Yeah well using hockey math, the Sharks beat the Red Wings and the Wings probably would’ve beaten philly, vancouver, and Nashville. So were still second best.
I guess it depends on refereeing — in 15 games this postseason, the Sharks were outscored 30-24 at 5-on-5.
"Ridin’ The Meat Train & Dreaming of Jack’s Johnson All Summer Long!"
http://www.battleofcali.com/
CONSPIRACY!!!!
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Sharks should try to stay as close as possible to what’s brought them success
I guess the Sharks “success” is debatable. If the goal is a pacific banner then don’t change a thing, maybe, But i think the problem is this team is expected to have won a cup by now.
IMO, it will not be CHI you have to worry about next season. Tweak your team to beat CHI and you will fail again i think. Just like this season the Sharks are geared up for DET and ANA and could not deal with the speed of CHI (just my opinion of course)
My guess is, it will be pissed off WASH or PITT re-tooled out of the east, and depending on offseason tweaks, VAN and LA scare me. Build a team to counter those guys.
Except no one expects Chicago to be able to field the exact same team for the next few years. They’re already over the cap for next year with only 14 people signed. They are just currently reaping the benefits of having a bunch of skilled players on their roster before they are all due huge raises…next season they’re not going to be nearly as deep. Not even close. This is their big window…
And changing out Nabby for an improved blueline seems like a decent sized shakeup already for a team that’s on the edge of Cup contention…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
The gist of this is correct
Between Pavelski, Seto, Nichol and Malhotra you will likely have to spend more. And no way are you getting Marleau as some others have suggested.
The gist of this is correct and the morals of the story are:
- Nabby is gone, this is a foregone conclusion. He is a victim of cap space. The Sharks will likely have to go with 2 of their 4 rookie goalies, as you have.
- One big correction, Petrecki is likely not ready.
- The big moral in my mind is that you cannot keep Marleau either without severe cap crunch and a horrendous blueline. Or if you do you have to trade or get compensation for Pav or Seto. I would strongly prefer they don’t sign Marleau and spend a lot of that money on a very good UFA defenseman, and pocket some change for cap space or minor improvements to the checking lines.
correction
I meant to say “no way you get Marleau for 5 mil”…
since nabby is gone, sounds like sj needs a goalie
would cory schneider from the canucks interest shark fans?
i see a package of schneider, raymond and bieksa for something like
clowe + murray and a pick
works for both teams? you guys save cap space and get a blue chip goalie prospect, we get some size in clowe and murray… just a thought :P
We have a pretty deep goalie pipeline.
If Schneider is NHL ready, I could see it working. I love Murray (have a Murray Sweden T-shirt) and would be said to see him leave, but I think the deal works if Schneider is NHL ready.
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" club.
Fear the Fin: Where Sharks Fans Aren't Like Other Sharks Fans.
by SharksFanEst.1994 on May 26, 2010 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions
We can't get rid of Murray
Like i said before, he’s one of our top D-men and he’s improved quickly and consistently. Plus he’s just entertaining to watch. Even my friends who don’t really watch hockey love Douglass Murray.
Murray is awesome, but he’s not a top pairing D man. If we can fit in a top pairing D man without trading Murray…and be able to slide him down the lineup, that would be ideal. He did get much better this season, though…
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 26, 2010 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
and there’s no reason to think he won’t get better next season. His skating has gotten better imo.
He’s played as a top pairing D-man all season long and i think he’s done pretty well. I still remember that game against the caps where him and Boyle were shutting down Ovie and he was gettin all frustrated n shit.
Mostly agree...
but the right offer would be considered…
Would you trade Murray and Huskins straight up for Robin Regehr..?
by skilletboy on May 27, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
How old is Reggie? 28? I think you take that deal any day of the week.
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
er... 30 I think... dear crap I'm getting old.
Still, young enough… definitely.
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
welcome to the club
2009-2010 Anaheim Ducks.."Hey at least were not the sharks!!"
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on May 28, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
* Thanks, Kevin Lowe!
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Pacific Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Jose
|
54 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 68 |
|
Los Angeles
|
57 | 27 | 19 | 11 | 65 |
|
Phoenix
|
57 | 27 | 21 | 9 | 63 |
|
Dallas
|
56 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 59 |
|
Anaheim
|
56 | 23 | 24 | 9 | 55 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 5:59 AM PST)
5 years old and counting!
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Puck Previews: Ducks’ road trip continues; Sens, Panthers in battle of most surprising teams
- Watch the weirdest goal of the year, courtesy of ECHL ref’s rulebook gaffe (VIDEO)
- Jeremy Roenick’s OK with Blackhawks trading Patrick Kane for goalie upgrade
- Puck Headlines: Rick Nash chatter; Jagr turns 40; Ovechkin too much of a rock star?
- NHL Trade Deadline Dream Scenarios: Whom do you want to go where?
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
