Ducks and Shot Differential -- Making Progress?
Anaheim was a very bad team in terms of shot-differential last year. Over 82 games last season they were outshot by 314 shots, the third-worst margin in the league. For reference, only seven teams got outshot by more than 200 shots last season; the Ducks were the only one of those to make the playoffs. Still, shooting margins did improve as the season went along -- Anaheim did manage a +14 shot differential over the 30 games following the All-Star break. But how and why did that happen?
The chart below shows the shot differential for all 82 regular season games the Ducks played last year. The red line is the 10-game running average, and I've marked a few key incidents on the timeline -- events that affected key parts of the Ducks lineup:
A - Game 5 - Toni Lydman makes his debut.
B - Game 40 - Ryan Getzlaf gets injured.
C - Game 53 - Jonas Hiller makes his last regular start for the Ducks.
D - Game 55 - Getzlaf returns to the lineup; one game later Francois Beauchemin makes his debut.
E - Game 62 - Dan Ellis makes his first start.
F - Game 70 - Ray Emery makes his first start.
Obviously there's some fluctuation here, but you can see the improvement as the season goes on -- look how often the blue lines go below the -10 mark in the first half of the season compared to the second. Woo hoo! Progress!
From a team-winning and a goal-differential perspective, the best segments of last year's season were between B and C (Getzlaf injured but Hiller excelling) and from E onward (team excelling in front of Ellis or Emery). From a shooting perspective, the key recovery point appears to be right around the insertion of Beauchemin and the loss of Hiller -- both seemed to have some impact. For Frenchie, that makes some sense -- he added a level of competence to a shaky blueline. For Jonas, though, I'm not so sure -- could he be responsible for some of the shooting discrepancy?
Sure, Hiller is a rebound machine, but that's somewhat true of his successors as well. Puck handling is also not the Swissman's strong suit, which may have some impact too. But I have to think more than that, Hiller's teammates simply played better for their replacement goalies than they did for their #1. Maybe that was because they finally had time to get the system right; maybe it's because they felt more vulnerable in net and adjusted -- whatever the reason, it corresponded with some winning hockey that got the Ducks from outside the playoffs to 4th in the west.
Will the shot-differential improvement continue if Jonas Hiller returns? Tough to say -- the data trend has me cautiously optimistic, I guess, but it's not like the roster or coach will be whoppingly different from the ones that started last season, either -- could go either way. So no hard conclusions today, but I thought I'd throw the chart out there -- feel free to discuss in the comments.
Go Ducks.
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This is all very interesting and everything but what does it have to do with what planets different players most resemble?
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
the thing that jumps out to me is when “C” happens things change dramatically….u think gorilla head coached the players to “sit” back or play more defensivily cuz of hillers absense? I always have a hard time believing unless its a rookie starting his first game that players give a shit whos behind them…i think carlye was the cause…just my opinion
lets just hope all this carrys over..
"A Chortled Evils Nip"
www.battleofcali.com
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jul 21, 2011 11:01 AM PDT reply actions
I like to think that’s about the time Corey Perry sold his soul to win the Hart.
I'd like to let all those NHL teams that passed me up in 2002 know that yes, I have managed to fill out my frame.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jul 21, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Emery and Ellis are so bad that they actually make the team better? That’s mind-blowing.
by RudyKelly on Jul 21, 2011 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Between E and F the Ducks hardly ever got outshot at all.
Maybe I’m underplaying the importance of goalie puck handling, as that is probably Ellis’ main skill.
www.battleofcali.com
that is probably Ellis’ main skill.
That and polo, of course.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
Well I think the shots when down when Hiller went out because the d couldn’t sit back and rely on the goalie to bail their asses out night after night.
by Newport Rebel on Jul 21, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Not many may notice it, but it is pretty fucking insane that I made a game-by-game shot-differential chart and because it was Anaheim, the scale had to go all the way down to -39. For a game!
Next year this had better be more rationally scaled.
www.battleofcali.com
Somehow Todd convinced management that the whole thing was Brett Festerling’s fault — that was his only game in a Ducks sweater last year before being sent to Atlantinnipeg.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was wondering about that. Seven other games dipping to -20 as well…wow.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
-39 … holy cow! How depressing.
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
At the time, sure, especially after working so hard on a series of season-opening Star Wars cartoons.
But now it’s kind of inspiring — the 4th-best team in the west did THAT?! We’re bound to have a better 3-game start to the year next season — hooray! :)
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 1:47 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Like when Rudy deleted Spade and my comments the other day:
First I was put off. I thought “what the hell did I do that was so bad?”
Now I’m thinking “Wow! How many people can claim they’ve actually had comments deleted from BoC?!”
by meetyourmako on Jul 21, 2011 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s pretty exclusive company — Samsung got me in that group. :)
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 2:46 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
hmmmmm … now we all want to join … mym and Spade, what did you two say that was so bad so I can repeat it? :)
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
Speaking of stolen jokes, here’s one I saw on Twitter the other day somewhere.
Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse are at a marriage therapist’s office. The therapist says, “So Mickey, I understand that you want to divorce Minnie because she’s insane?”
“No, you idiot!” yells Mickey. “It’s because she’s fucking Goofy!”
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
I’m with your mom. My boys’ dad is always getting himself into trouble with the stuff he says to them.
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
My main problem with children is that it’s so incredibly tempting and so incredibly easy to lie constantly to them for no reason.
www.battleofcali.com
Why is that a

:)
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Makes you wonder what lies you were told as a child huh?
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
I was told I should respect my elders,but I saw right through that one. :)
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
While we’re talking about the Ducks, here’s a neat little tidbit about Andrew Cogliano: apparently he’s the worst faceoff man in the entire world.
2007-08: 39.5%
2008-09: 37.2%
2009-10: 43%
2010-11: 41.6%
Yikes.
by RudyKelly on Jul 21, 2011 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, Getzlaf is off the hook. But the kid’s young — gotta see him play before complaining effectively.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 12:53 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
But he also took almost every face-off for the oilers this season. Can’t fault him for trying.
by ScottyKnows on Jul 21, 2011 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe he should be a winger?
"A Chortled Evils Nip"
www.battleofcali.com
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jul 21, 2011 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably, but I don’t mind trying him out. If it’s too costly, McMuffin could take the draws.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 1:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Probably, but I don’t mind trying him out. If it’s too costly, McMuffin could take the draws.
Someone call Rob Niedermayer!
Can’t say I’m too torn up about it — we had him at the one moment we needed him, Scott’s unrestricted free agency, plus he was great when we needed him to be, but he’s obviously declined.
It’s not like Rob went head-first to Switzerland this summer. He had to get snubbed by 30 NHL teams first.
Also, why’s Rob’s name coming up in a faceoff debate? He hardly ever took them in Anaheim, per memory — only as a second option when Rucchin/Pahlsson/Marchant got tossed.
www.battleofcali.com
Yeah, I fucked it up; I thought it was Niedermayer who took face-offs and then played left wing but that was Pahlsson.
I think Rob was drafted as a center and played there probably in Florida, but never really in Anaheim.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 1:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
He was still capable of filling the role that he played all along. Our best defensive forward after Phalsson and we let him walk. All the other plug-ins didn’t really play as well.
Now that I remember though, he did get scratched in his last season on the team. It was the first time in a long time he was a healthy scratch. blame carlyle.
I guess — but I don’t know that he’d have made a huge difference last year. And I’m not sure what he got paid in Buffalo, but paying Rob $2M looks fine so long as Scott’s taking a discount in the lineup; once Scott retires, the Rob contract looks way less good.
www.battleofcali.com
Getzy being out was a biggie cause then he wasn’t out on the ice to pass the puck to the other team, thus limiting the extra times of possession for the other team.
Let's go Ducks.
Ryan Getzlaf, 81 giveaways, 35 takeaways.
by kvd123 on Jul 21, 2011 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am starting to convince myself that I’m undervaluing Getzlaf’s contribution in the chart above — he came back right around when Beauchemin came in and when Hiller left, and it’s possible that he came back a better player than he was before the injury.
I give Getzlaf a lot of flak because the team won so many games without him (and showed remarkably better first periods while doing so), so in that regard it seems he wasn’t that useful before the injury. But the results afterwards can’t be all Beauchemin — Getzlaf should get some credit for coming back a stronger player, I suppose. Keep improving, Baldy.
www.battleofcali.com
I felt bad that the Sharks visited the National Archives, hosted by Jamie McGinn’s cousin, who works there, the day after Jamie was sent back down to Wooster.
by meetyourmako on Jul 22, 2011 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey Meg
when do they announce that you won?
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Also, when should I stop voting?
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 22, 2011 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
The winner will be
Astounding, Amazing, and Unknown.
Looks like Malmont’s there for a panel around noon, so maybe that’ll be it. Good luck Meg!
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah actually it was already announced on the writer’s Facebook page. I didn’t win. Booooo.
The author said something about some “Editor’s Choice” stories that will be announced soon so I was waiting for whatever happens with that before talking about it here, but oh well.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
The voting part worked well, but my story couldn’t close the deal.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
Sorry dude
was just curious. I thought you had it locked up!
I’m going to SD to sit on Malmont’s head.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Sit happens.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
by Megalodon on Jul 22, 2011 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just can’t stand the injustice.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, at least you made it to the conference finals. :)
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 22, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
A burn on both the Sharks and my failure as a writer?
God damn. Bravo.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
“Shock and Balls” is still the best thing I’ve ever written. I should have submitted that phrase instead of my story.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
or you could have just had Earl write it for you.
by ScottyKnows on Jul 22, 2011 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Let’s not go nuts.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
by Megalodon on Jul 22, 2011 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
ScottyNuts.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
or you could have just had Earl write it for you.
“The robot felt nothing. Meh.”
by RudyKelly on Jul 22, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Let’s not go nuts.
The Earl felt…haters.
by ScottyKnows on Jul 22, 2011 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
id be a champion
"A Chortled Evils Nip"
www.battleofcali.com
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jul 23, 2011 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Is that where haters gonna hate?
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
and what the heck Earl, this is summer, you should be analyzing the player’s swimming abilities.
Let's go Ducks.
Teemu Selanne: excellent diver.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hiller’s not allowed near water this summer — too many ripples might make his brain explode from vertigo.
Also, I’m not a doctor.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 1:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Fowler is the middle man in the relay team. As well as swimming the 1000 meter race.
Let's go Ducks.
This reminds me: swimming is a horrible sport.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 2:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I prefer the women’s suits. It made it worth having to be at the pool with water by 0430
These are the demands and sayings of tohon
I hope you banged one of them, too, otherwise there’s no way it was worth being there by 4:30.
by meetyourmako on Jul 22, 2011 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
unfortunately no, but I am the only one here who can say he banged a girl that scored a goal in the world cup final.
These are the demands and sayings of tohon
There you go Duck fans; keep living in the past!
by meetyourmako on Jul 22, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s like they’re the high school bully that grew up to be a gas station attendant and the Kings are the lonely, pathetic nerd that grew up to be a fairly successful software engineer with a nice house and a lovely wife that may not be that attractive but is sweet and kind. Last night was the software engineer pulling into the gas station and going for a fill up and then the pump wouldn’t work so he presses the little button to talk to the attendant, but the attendant calls him a fag so the software engineer just drives to another station and gets gas then goes home while the attendant is fired because that was the last fucking time he abused the little button, so then the gas station attendant goes home and gets drunk and posts angrily on a hockey blog under the name, “Spade-in-Victorhell.”
by RudyKelly on Jul 22, 2011 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
More like the guy who’s been working at the same company for the past 44 years is the Kings and the young up and coming employee who came in and got promoted to the silver office is the Ducks.
No one considers the old guy’s ideas anymore and they’ve moved him down to the boiler room. If that wasn’t bad enough they took away his favorite stapler too.
Also, I should apologize that there’s no cartoon on this post. I dunno — I sat down to draw something yesterday, but all I ended up with was these X-Men in hockey uniforms. Not too relevant, so I didn’t even scan them in until just now.
Uh, I bet all three of these guys have excellent Corsi numbers or something. :)
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 2:33 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
1) What is with the purple?
2) Won’t that fire dude totally melt the ice?
3) uhm, how to put this gently, where the heck is that tail point to?
Let's go Ducks.
1) X-Men
2) X-Men
3) X-Men
Can’t catch you up on it all today.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 2:40 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes.
Outstanding, even if random.
Could be another bumper sticker?
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I was debating who was going to play goalie — it could be the only position Professor X could play, but others might be really cool too.
Then I fell asleep. :)
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Joe Thornton lead the league in takeaways, that’s not impressive because he also lead the league in giveaways!
Getzlaf ranked 14th in the league in giveaways, so I guess we shouldn’t complain as much as we do.
Haha, try to stop me.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, but how many of Thorton’s giveaways led directly to an opposing shot on goal? And did he ever get the exasperated WTF? look from his goalie. (I swear I saw Hiller give Getzlaf that look a couple of times after having to make an amazing save off of his giveaway)
Remember, amateurs built the ark • Professionals built the Titanic
true, Thorton’s giveaways are usually in the o zone giving plenty of backchecking time
by meetyourmako on Jul 21, 2011 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Someone flipped his non-sequitur switch.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Burrito or torta? Torta!
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ah — now I’m catching on. See you, Lalime — I sort of remember when you were a Duck!
www.battleofcali.com
I remember when he was a Hawk and tried to kill Bertuzzi…
"Thank you very much fans and let’s go for the next game together!"
— Lubomir Visnovsky
I rec’d that shit.
I just read stuff on Tsn and comment on it in the latest story here. You should be pleased.
I looked at that little tournament they’re doing, muttered, “Where the fuck is Nicklas Backstrom?” and then closed the tab.
From Scott Cullen, Fantasist
I quite like Andrew Murray as a checking forward, for example, but find it hard to believe that, in 290:15 of even-strength ice time, he had one giveaway.
WE GOT HIM! WOOOOOOO!!!!
Every time I see a reference to TSN I think of The Sporting News.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess the Subban camp didn’t play their tribute video often enough.
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 22, 2011 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It was real funny how they were comparing Subban to Doughty.
It’s going to be even funnier when they try to compare Couture to Doughty.
Yeah there’s no comparison: Doughty is way worse. He’s about equal with Jack Johnson.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
Unrelated to hockey
But San Jose has the #1 life expectancy in the U.S. which is pretty cool I guess. Anaheim and LA are also on the list. Somehow, Oakland made #15.
"You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain Kent Huskins!" - Randy Hahn 2/13/11
No fair — you guys have Ang. :)
www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Well, I assume Anaheim’s ranking is because Teemu keeps registering as a resident.
www.battleofcali.com
And LA just kicked Smyth out
"You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain Kent Huskins!" - Randy Hahn 2/13/11
by pooponastick on Jul 21, 2011 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I am going to reach thru this computer monitor and strangle all of you guys!!
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 21, 2011 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
they did burn down their city after losing. at least SoCal waits till we win to riot. As for Norcal, I have no clue, they haven’t won anything in my lifetime.
These are the demands and sayings of tohon
You may not be aware of this, but there is this team called the Giants that did win the World Series last year. May be an insignificant sport like baseball, but still a big deal to many. :)
GO SHARKS!
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin (see profile for more info on this quote)
The A’s won in 1989, as well, sweeping the Giants, ironically,,,,,,,
by meetyourmako on Jul 22, 2011 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe Hiller packs a bunch of Swiss cheese for gamedays so the guys just tire him out as punishment since they don’t like the smell of cheese?
The Rat loves cheese!

www.battleofcali.com
by Earl Sleek on Jul 21, 2011 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, look! Apparently the Ducks’ AHL team will be awesome this year. Vague happiness!
www.battleofcali.com
SYRACUSE CRUNCH RETOOLING FOR 2011-12 SEASON:
That explains why you guys have been signing all those tools.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
by Megalodon on Jul 22, 2011 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
We should just go all-in for the AHL Stanley Cup whatever it is. Is Bobby Ryan demotable? :)
www.battleofcali.com
OMG what the hell is this thing supposed to be?

by meetyourmako on Jul 22, 2011 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
It looks like some freaky ninja turtles villain.
by meetyourmako on Jul 22, 2011 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
from wikipedia
“Chows are an aggressive breed, fiercely protective of their people and property and should only be adopted by experienced dog owners who have the time and energy to devote to proper training and socialization.”
That sounds like a crunch.
Let's go Ducks.
Winnipeg just released their official logos.
I kinda like them. At least the main one’s pretty cool.
Yeah — that looks good. Although that last one I’m not sure why the maple leaf is trying to be an apostrophe.
www.battleofcali.com
The shoulder patch is cooler than the actual logo. Well, the top right one anyway.
Most Jets fans are complaining about it looking like some old military logo. I think they’re pretty sweet. At least it’s an actual logo instead of just a word. =/
Still good on them to remind the world Canada has a military…
"Thank you very much fans and let’s go for the next game together!"
— Lubomir Visnovsky
I rec’d that shit.
by Steven Hida on Jul 22, 2011 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

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