The Decline of Dany Heatley

A statistical exploration of Dany Heatley's offensive production and a comparison to Martin Havlat.

This was already linked-to on Fear the Fin and Puck Daddy, but if you didn't read it after seeing it mentioned in either of those places now you have a third chance!

11 months ago Megalodon 22 comments 1 recs |

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The perspective of this article matches what I WANT to believe is true about the trade, namely that Doug Wilson correctly anticipated a decline in Heatley’s production and got out from under his contract before everyone else in the league figured it out. Whether this is actually the case won’t be clear until the new season gets going, of course.

San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California

by Megalodon on Jul 7, 2011 5:06 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I think that’s got some likelihood. But where exactly am I supposed to vote?

www.battleofcali.com

by Earl Sleek on Jul 7, 2011 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Thanks for the link.

I think that DW took advantage of a team desperate for scoring and hopeful that the scorer’s apparent decline can be solely attributed to injuries or whatnot, and will magically disappear in the “state of hockey.”

I’ve got a feeling that this will be seen as an extremely valuable and critical move a year from now, with some voting as such in a BoC poll while others discuss Asian foods in the comments.

by whine_country on Jul 7, 2011 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Yeah I read this earlier in the day and DW knows what he’s doing. But as much as I hope this trade benefits the Sharks more than hurts the Sharks, I do wish Heatley the best and hope there is no decline.

GO SHARKS!
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by Angy on Jul 7, 2011 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions

IIRC, Quisp's survey of 50-goal scorers showed that decline after 27 is a marked tendency

So Heatley’s falling off is not unusual among elite scorers. It’s not impossible that he will reverse himself and return to earlier form, but it’s a debatable proposition.

I suspect that among the elite scorers who retain their scoring touch into their 30’s, conditioning plays a big part in it. I don’t know if you could call Heatley someone who pays attention to that.

"I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

by DougX on Jul 8, 2011 1:41 AM PDT up reply actions

It’s not impossible that he will reverse himself and return to earlier form

It would frankly be pretty shocking if Heatley increased his goal scoring after playing for much of two seasons on a line with Joe Thornton. The quality of his line-mates in San Jose probably did a lot to disguise his decline.

He did elbow Steve Ott in the head that one time though, and for that I will always love him.

San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California

by Megalodon on Jul 8, 2011 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions

Didn’t he play the majority of last season with Cloweture? I only really saw him with Jumbo on the 1st PP unit through January and then just on the PK.

Koivu is a pretty decent passer and there’s no doubt Heater will be on their 1st line. I’m guessing he will get 30+. Not the 50 scorer he was a few years ago but 30-40 aint too shabby.

Waiting for the Cup to come to SJ since 1991...

GO SHARKS!

Find me on Twitter @njahoda

by winthecupsj on Jul 8, 2011 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions

He did play most of last season with Clowe and Couture, but like you said he also got power-play time with Joe. Not having to face the other team’s top defenders was a plus as well, especially for a guy with some nagging injury problems. He won’t have anyone to take the focus off him in Minnesota – he’ll be the number one target for the other team every night.

San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California

by Megalodon on Jul 8, 2011 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions

He did have the lowest shooting percentage of his career last year and the third lowest the year before. It’s possible he’s just had bad luck 2 years running. Or maybe the Sharks’ emphasis on shots from everywhere doesn’t play to his strengths.

Or he’s just old.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Jul 8, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Well, I didn’t see enough of Heatley when he was with SJ to make a really definitive judgment on that, hence my hedging. Which is maybe just a roundabout way of admitting that I don’t really know what I’m talking about (certainly, not nearly as much as the Sharks fans here).

He did elbow Steve Ott in the head that one time though, and for that I will always love him.

Sounds like something I would have enjoyed seeing. :-)

"I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

by DougX on Jul 8, 2011 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions

I did see in those places

but I didn’t actually read until I got this 3rd chance, bravo sir!

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by PNK on Jul 7, 2011 5:31 PM PDT reply actions

Thanks, I missed this elsewhere

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by pooponastick on Jul 7, 2011 7:37 PM PDT reply actions

MOAR POLEZ NOW!

by TnSD11 on Jul 7, 2011 7:45 PM PDT reply actions

Try Craigslist?

by whine_country on Jul 7, 2011 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Or the strip club

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

by Semi_Colon on Jul 8, 2011 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Grace, if you’re still undecided, an animated cartoon symbolic of Dany Heatley’s decline might be a nice playoff pool prize.

www.battleofcali.com

by Earl Sleek on Jul 7, 2011 11:45 PM PDT reply actions

I dont think Im going to read this until I see it linked in at least 2 more places

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by operation carrot on Jul 8, 2011 12:46 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs

The OTHER perspective...

Dany Heatley’s 10-11 stats vs. Minnesota Wild stats… thanks to Hockey Wilderness

http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2011/7/7/2263691/Dany-Heatley-Stats-vs-Minnesota-Wild-Leader-Stats

A healthy Heatley is going to be head and shoulders above everyone in that line up considering an injured Heatley that plays on the 2nd line is #1 in quite a few categories.

Waiting for the Cup to come to SJ since 1991...

GO SHARKS!

Find me on Twitter @njahoda

by winthecupsj on Jul 8, 2011 8:23 AM PDT reply actions

Those are his stats while playing on one of the best teams in the league, and nearly half of his goals/points were on the PP so that seems like a silly comparison.

They also talk about how Heatley will be getting an upgrade in linemates…Koivu is good, but not better than Thornton, and not much better than either Clowe and Couture, let alone the both of them. Plus they fail to mention how their leading scorer who was traded to us, Martin Havlat, played on their 2nd line with Matt Cullen and Cal Clutterbuck. So if anyone’s really gettin an upgrade in linemates, it’s Martin Fucken Havlat.

by Khaaz on Jul 8, 2011 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

When you take into consideration the amount of money some of the UFAs got this off-season, Heatley’s contract doesn’t look that awful.

He scored 64 while playing through some injuries? Before that he was consistently a 40g 70 pt player. Those are some great number. I blame McMellan for not using him properly and think there won’t be a decline.

by ScottyKnows on Jul 8, 2011 10:37 AM PDT reply actions