Joking aside, Matt forgets risk manager Les Miles' quota of two losses a year here. Hayes once lost a game of Texas Hold 'Em to Miles, folding for a huge loss when Miles went all-in against Hayes' full house. In Miles hand? A pair of 2s, the card with the instructions on it, his room key and an expired American Express card. Matt has overvalued him ever since.
The smart, fair ballot takes into account such eccentricities by treating the season like an extremely fluid game of merit-based musical chairs, with expectations of black swans aplenty: the teams left for the championship at the end aren't necessarily the biggest, fastest or most intimidating. They were just in the right place when the music stopped.