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Ducks Gameday—Stage Six: Survival

Round One, Game Six: (4) Anaheim Ducks at (5) Dallas Stars
(DAL leads series 3-2, JavaGeek ‘odds’: DAL 77%)


The Grim Reaper of Elimination! Run, Duckie, Run!

I have a theory about overcoming 3-1 series deficits. Generally speaking, in order for a team to come back it needs to:
  • win a game it deserves to win,
  • win a game it deserves to tie, and
  • win a game it deserves to lose.
Friday night the Ducks won a game they deserved to win, so now it's time to get lucky.

There's good signs and bad signs for tonight. The good: in Anaheim's franchise history, it has never lost a Game Six (5-0, outscoring opponents 18-11). The bad: game results so far in this series mirror the tables-turned version of the 2003 DAL-ANA series (except this time, there's a lot less overtime), which would mean the series ends tonight.

So pour yourself a drink, load a bowl if you're 4/20 motivated, and hang on. Let's see if the Ducks can again escape the jaws of elimination.

Prediction: This pattern to this series has been simple: when the Ducks have led, they've won; when the Ducks have trailed, they've lost. Ducks 3, Stars 2. Goals by Weight and Pahlsson x2.

Go Ducks.