I'm not a blogger who utilizes polls in posts very often -- in fact, I'm pretty sure that this will be the third poll I've run in the past three years, and in all three cases it's been the exact same poll. :)
But still, it's been a pretty fun discussion piece each time, largely because there's no right or urgent answer. So let's ask it once again, using last year's graphic for an additional layer of laziness!
The question: You are the Anaheim GM, and for whatever reason you are forced to trade one of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, or Bobby Ryan. Who would you trade?
Before you rush to answer, here's each player's stats over the past three seasons. Note that each player is coming off his worst season, point-wise, over the past three years:
|Player||Season||GP||G - A - Pts||+/-||PIM||PPG||SHG||GWG||Shots||TOI/gm|
|Ryan Getzlaf||2011-12||82||11 - 46 - 57||-11||75||4||0||4||185||21:35|
|Corey Perry||2011-12||80||37 - 23 - 60||-7||127||14||1||6||277||21:22|
|Bobby Ryan||2011-12||82||31 - 26 - 57||+1||53||3||2||3||204||18:21|
|Ryan Getzlaf||2010-11||67||19 - 57 - 76||+14||35||7||0||4||117||21:51|
|Corey Perry||2010-11||82||50 - 48 - 98||+9||104||14||4||11||290||22:18|
|Bobby Ryan||2010-11||82||34 - 37 - 71||+15||61||5||1||5||270||20:10|
|Ryan Getzlaf||2009-10||66||19 - 50 - 69||+4||79||8||0||5||149||21:40|
|Corey Perry||2009-10||82||27 - 49 - 76||ev||111||6||1||2||270||21:03|
|Bobby Ryan||2009-10||81||35 - 29 - 64||+9||81||11||0||3||258||18:29|
|Ryan Getzlaf||3 Years||215||49 - 153 - 202||+7||189||19||0||13||451||21:42|
|Corey Perry||3 Years||244||114 - 120 - 234||+2||342||34||6||19||837||21:34|
|Bobby Ryan||3 Years||245||100 - 92 - 192||+25||195||19||3||11||732||19:00|
And here's how their existing contracts are laid out -- first three rows represent the cap hit, and the second three rows represent actual dollars. It may end up that the first order of Anaheim Ducks business upon a new CBA is to design new contracts for Getzlaf and Perry.
So sure, this question is hugely theoretical, because without a CBA, I'm pretty sure a GM isn't allowed to trade any players. And depending on how long it takes to agree on a CBA, the status of Getzlaf and Perry especially might change from players under contract to players set to hit the open market. So there's definitely some weird factors in play for this year's poll.
So why trade Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry?
The reasons you might trade Getzlaf or Perry are pretty parallel, since both have identically-expiring contracts and play together pretty much all the time. So I'm going to cover these two players' reasons together.
One reason why you'd trade a twin: because there's uncertainty about what their next contract will cost. I imagine once the CBA re-instates, the Ducks will have a window to negotiate with Getzlaf and Perry before they truly become unrestricted free agents. But even so, it's not really an ideal negotiating position for the Ducks -- they will essentially be bidding against the theoretical offers of 29 other teams. And as we learn every summer, there's always somebody willing to throw a stupid contract or two around.
Now I'd imagine there's some degree of loyalty for each player, so the Ducks may not have to be the absolute highest bidder on the market in order to retain either player. But Anaheim's offers can't be way off from the spenders, either -- it will likely cost the Ducks a lot to keep them both in the fold.
Another reason you might trade Getzlaf or Perry: they didn't have much success last season in giving the Ducks a competent top line -- sure, there were a lot of journeymen who tried out to complete the trio, and they did see difficult minutes -- but they weren't really the force they were two seasons ago, back when Perry won the Hart.
A couple months ago I did run a bit of analysis about how certain Ducks players performed with or without a teammate, which is where Bobby Ryan seemed to shine:
Bobby Ryan may have jumped around to a lot of lines last season, but he also helped out a lot of teammates’ results in doing so. Getzlaf and Perry were better with Ryan than without, Koivu and Selanne were better with Ryan than without, and even Bonino and Cogliano benefited.
Heck, Ryan was even able to make temporarily-plus players out of Fowler and Beauchemin, who were the only two Ducks skaters to finish the season with a lower plus-minus than Captain Baldy.
And as for Getzlaf (and Perry):
Ouch, Getzlaf – the Ducks’ problem last season wasn’t that they didn’t have a true second-line center (as I’ve heard some Ducks fans complain) -- it’s that they didn’t have a true first-line center. At 5-on-5, the Ducks scored 2.24 GF/60 when Getzlaf was on the bench and scored 1.90 GF/60 when Getzlaf was on the ice – for all his touted talent, he wasn’t very strong in the goal-producing department. Sure, guys like Jason Blake and Matt Beleskey did better on the top line than on the fourth, but Getzlaf needs to flat-out be better next season.
Can Getzlaf and Perry be better than they were last season? Most definitely. But will they, and will it be worth the cost of their new contracts? That's a question for your next Ducks blogger. :)
So why trade Bobby Ryan?
There's two main reasons I can see to vote to trade Bobby Ryan: (a) because that's the way BoC readers voted last summer, and everybody likes consistency, and (b) because you'll always get a better trade return for a player under future contract than a player that still needs to be signed. Why would another team give up a ton for Getzlaf or Perry when they theoretically would be available to sign for free whenever free agency opens up?
Bobby Ryan, on the other hand, can't be freely poached from the Ducks for a few years -- he's a player/contract that another team could open up the trade vaults for. After all, he's a goal scorer that still has untapped potential -- thanks largely to Teemu's never-ending awesomeness, Ryan has yet to be utilized on a top power play unit. Of the three players, Bobby has scored the most even-strength goals over the past thee seasons.
Plus, I suppose there's the pseudo-drama last season about Bobby Ryan re-emerging as trade bait and his maybe-it-happened trade demand, but I don't put a lot of stock in the rift that supposedly happened there -- but it is one other aspect to consider.
One last note before voting: here are the results from last year and the year before. I wonder -- how's the poll going to look this go-round?
So enough jibber-jabber -- go cast this year's vote. And then if you're a Ducks fan, be glad that there is no real urgency for anybody in the Anaheim organization to make this decision.
Or any decisions.