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Ducks Gameday -- When you wish upon the Stars...

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Anaheim Ducks (Pacific basement) at Dallas Stars (Pacific penthouse), 5 pm
Anaheim Calling and Defending Big D -- Texas-tentialism.

Cartoon archives, what have you got for me today?


As of this morning, Sports Club Stats has the following 50/50 method playoff likelihoods for the BoC teams:

Anaheim Ducks 2.4%
Los Angeles Kings 33.4%
San Jose Sharks 67.0%

So the Chance that everything is going to be okay on this blog = Slim chance that Ducks make playoffs + Chance that all 3 BoC teams miss playoffs = 2.4% + (97.6% * 66.6% * 33.0%) = 23.85%

So keep some hope, Ducks fans! Anaheim is fucked, but there's nearly a 1 in 4 chance that there won't be anybody in this state to gloat about it this summer. C'mon, Ducks and/or Avs and/or Flames! :)

I was going to write a post about the Ducks' upcoming summer roster decisions, but I'll save most of the writing part of that post for later -- instead, here's just a snapshot of the NHL salaries the Ducks are carrying into next season, courtesy of CapGeek. For Anaheim, the "CASH" column matters more than the "CAP" column, since they won't be spending to the cap ceiling.

Player CAP CASH Years Remaining
Ryan Getzlaf $5.33 $6.13 1 - UFA
Corey Perry $5.33 $4.88 1 - UFA
Bobby Ryan $5.10 $5.56 3 - UFA
Andrew Cogliano $2.39 $2.35 2 - UFA
Devante Smith-Pelly $0.87 $0.90 2 - RFA
Matt Beleskey $0.74 $0.85 1 - RFA
Kyle Palmieri $1.03 $0.93 1 - RFA
Emerson Etem $0.90 $0.90 2 - RFA
8 FORWARDS $21.67 $22.49
Lubomir Visnovsky $5.60 $3.00 1 - UFA
Francois Beauchemin $3.50 $3.50 3 - UFA
Toni Lydman $3.00 $3.00 1 - UFA
Luca Sbisa $2.18 $2.00 3 - RFA
Cam Fowler $1.40 $1.40 1 - RFA
Nate Guenin $0.53 $0.53 1 - UFA
6 DEFENSEMEN $16.20 $13.43
Jonas Hiller $4.50 $4.50 2 - UFA
Jeff Deslauriers $0.61 $0.63 1 - UFA
2 GOALTENDERS $5.11 $5.13
8 F, 6 D, 2 G $42.99 $41.04

So there's not nearly enough forwards signed, but there's already a top line and a third line, plus nearly an entire blueline and goalie tandem. And here's a look at the expiring contracts Anaheim is shedding -- everybody except Nick Bonino is unrestricted. I've listed and sorted according to what they made this season:

Teemu Selanne $4.00 $4.00
Jason Blake $4.00 $3.00
Niklas Hagman *
$3.00 $3.00
Saku Koivu $2.50 $2.50
Dan Ellis $1.50 $1.50
George Parros $0.88 $0.88
Sheldon Brookbank $0.75 $0.80
Rod Pelley $0.55 $0.58
Nick Bonino $0.69 $0.69

* Anaheim paid only half Hagman's salary because he was claimed on recall waivers.

Now there's a huge amount of uncertainty about the near future, as there is no Collective Bargaining Agreement beyond this year and many are thinking there will be a salary rollback before next season starts. As such, I'd probably be reluctant to spend too much more money before there's more clarity as to what is already committed to.

  • So the guys I might be negotiating extensions with right now are probably Nick Bonino, Sheldon Brookbank, George Parros, and maybe Rod Pelley. Depth and role guys that won't break the bank, and I think all four have done well enough under Boudreau to get a re-up.
  • Teemu and Saku are in a different boat -- if they want to return, they should be brought back, but I don't expect any clarity too soon on either front. Also, I'm not sure if there's going to be any changes to one-year contract bonuses for players over 35 -- may want to see what happens there before penning those contracts. Talk to them, but not their agents.
  • Blake and Hagman are a different story -- they've both been important part of the roster, and both are hard-working hustlers that the team does need. Well, at least the team probably needs one of them. But neither can be brought back at anywhere near their last cap hit -- whichever one takes the biggest discount can stay. But nothing should get signed now unless it's ridiculously cheap.
  • Dan Ellis I don't really expect to see back -- he served his purpose when MiracElhinney fell apart last year. If he does return, it should be cheap enough that nobody understands Dan Ellis jokes anymore.
  • There very likely will be some money to spend this summer, mostly for the second line, I'd think, though I don't really hope it gets spent via a July 1st signing. It may be more efficient to acquire useful contracts in a trade, but we'll see how cap-constrained rich teams become once a CBA is signed.

That's enough for Saturday, I guess -- more discussion to come later. Feel free to discuss the roster decisions for next season, or if you're an insane optimist, discuss tonight's game. :)

Prediction: I won't be around for game comments tonight, but should be a fun loss. After the final buzzer, Ducks fans set their clocks forward one hour and their calendars forward six months.

Go Ducks.